Thursday Service Plays Thread 3/7/19

bulat · Mar 7, 2019

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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bulat · Mar 7, 2019

SPARTAN \| NBA SIDES	THU, 03/07/19 - 10:35 PM
550 POR -3.5 (-110) Westgate vs 549 OKL	triple-dime bet

Analysis:
The Blazers are finally back home after a very strong east coast swing. Long seven game road trip but they held up well. Now they are back in the friendly confines and welcome a Thunder team that has looked pretty vulnerable of late. The Thunder are a maddening team and one that has been breaking the bankrolls of backers for awhile now. They have failed to cover in four of the last five trips into Portland as well as their last four games on the road. That is why it might turn some heads to see them getting the fairly generous points in a game many consider a coin toss. But over the long term the stubborn fact is the Blazers have been by and large a pure money proposition on their home court. I like the Thunder, actually do and I really respect the way Westbrook plays at 100% night after night. That is kind of rare in this era quite frankly. But the weak link with this team, again my own view, is their vulnerability down in the post. I thought that was evident last game out when Towns lit them up. Bottom line is I will lay the points here with Portland at home.

Now, have cashed on 10 of my last 12 games involving Portland. But, that is strong but not 12 of 12. Same stance as always. Locks and sure things are for fools. I don't play that nonsense. Please wager this like any triple, nothing more or less. It's one game fellas. One game in our journey. Many sincere thanks as always and best of luck to each one of us. Enjoy the game.

Pick Made: Mar 6 2019 7:35PM PST

bulat · Mar 7, 2019

Anybody got Novers 3* NHL play?

bulat · Mar 7, 2019

SLEEPYJ \| CBB TOTAL	THU, 03/07/19 - 11:00 PM
630 Stanford / 629 California Over 144.0 Pinnacle	triple-dime bet

Analysis:
Don't look now, but Cal is on a hot streak. yes the Golden Bears have now won two in a row and you know they are gunning for another win here. Well that's good news and they won't be able to rely on the defense for this game. Stanford on offense has been much better for the most part. They are scoring big point totals on poor defensive teams. Cal would rate as a very bad defensive team and Stanford being at home will set the pace. Stanford would like to run the score up here on Cal I would assume. Now these teams played this season already and scored a total of 165 points in the 1st meeting. So well over this total.

Season PPG suggests this total should be 146...So I feel we are getting some value in that alone. Now Cal who has won two games in a row has been getting it done with offense. In back to back games the Golden Bears have score 76 in each game. That's about 7.5 points above the season average. Now Stanford isn't a great defense by any means...They are decent, but I don't think they'll care much to try to slow the game down to lock down Cal in this game. Stanford will want to score and showboat beating Cal in this game. The line suggests Stanford will have an easy time with Cal. I'm not so sure though. Cal has won two games and beat both the Washington teams. My feeling is they are doing something on offense that makes them more competitive from what they were doing the entire season. Maybe it's just the simple fact that they have nothing to lose.

I like the fact that this is Stanford final home game. The crowd will want a win, but they will also want all the bells and whistles to go along with a win tonight. I think they get that fast paced game filled with 3's and dunks.

Stanford shot 24 3's against Wazzu and cal shot 26 3's against Wazzu. My thinking is both teams on defense play a similar style to each other. Therefore they both might feel comfortable shooting up the 3 ball again at an alarming rate. Cal 3pt defense is brutal...They rank #348 in the nation out of 353 schools...It's that bad...Stanford ranks #160, which is average, but if Cal don't give a care lol....Well they will shoot em up anyway. Another thing that puts me on the over is the turnovers. Both teams are bad with turning the ball over. That creates fast break points and baskets...Plus they also run the risk of fouls...free throw line won't be a bad area for us tonight I don't think being Stanford is worse of the two teams, but they are at home. You know Cal wants to win 3 in a row and they want to beat their rival. Stanford wants this game bad as well...I don't see some 65-50 type score...I see more of a 83-75 type score.

Pick Made: Mar 6 2019 11:56PM PST

bulat · Mar 7, 2019

KING CREOLE \| NBA SIDES	THU, 03/07/19 - 10:35 PM
550 POR -3.5 (-110) Westgate vs 549 OKL	double-dime bet

Analysis:
March 7th
10:35pm ET (7:35pm PT)
TNT TV
#549-550
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers
3*** Play on: PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS minus the points

We jumped on the home FAVORITE in this Thursday late-night game as soon as the opening line of Portland -3.5 came out. I think bettors will agree with us when they read some of the mind-blowing numbers that apply to this key Northwest Division game. One thing is for sure. The Ok City Thunder is currently in their worst funk of the 2018/2019 season. They’re the ONLY Team that has failed to cover the pointspread in ANY game since the resumption of play after the All-Star break. So with that said, let’s look at the applicable TEAM trends for this game…

OKLAHOMA CITY THU~NDER:
*A perfect 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, including 0-7 ATS after the All-Star break…
*A piss-poor team in DIVISION play over the last three years. That includes 10-25-1 ATS versus all Northwest Division opponents… including 2-15 ATS when playing off a LOSS in their last game (lost to Minnesota 130-121 on Tuesday). That includes a perfect 0-8 ATS when playing in the division road.
*10-26-1 ATS since 2015 as short ROAD underdogs of 6 or less points when playing off a SU loss.
*A very poor team on this particular Day of the Week. The Thunder have gone 4-18 ATS in their last 22 THURSDAY road games.
*The 2nd WORST team in terms of Offensive Efficiency over their last four games. Their average of only 103.7 points per 100 possessions is #29 in the league (right behind the Dallas Mavericks at 99.0).

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS:
*Already tied for the 2nd BEST home team in the entire league this season. Denver is #1 at 22-1 ATS. Portland is right behind (tied with Dallas at 21-11 ATS).
*The league’s BEST home team over the last two seasons. Since December of the 2017 season, Portland has gone 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 home games. That includes 18-6 ATS when playing off a loss in their last game… and 11-1 ATS versus any opponent off a DOUBLE-DIGIT loss (like the Thunder).
*A great team as home ‘chalk’ in division play. Portland has gone 14-2 ATS in the last four seasons as division home favorites when playing with REVENGE.
*A GREAT team on this particular Day of the Week. In the last 3 seasons, Portland has gone a PERFECT 15-0 ATS on THURSDAYS in regular season play! That (naturally) includes a perfect 8-0 ATS already THIS season.

Portland also has the ultimate in motivation in regards to this game. they had lost each of the last three meetings versus the Thunder. That includes two losses in January AT Oklahoma City. So REVENGE comes into play.
In the last three years, NBA same-DIVISION home favorites playing with TRIPLE Revenge (TRAILBLAZERS) have gone 19-5 ATS when playing of fa loss in their last game. That includes 8-1 ATS already this season.

The Blazers were mid-to-larger road favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. They lost OUTRIGHT to Memphis by nine points (120 to 111)… 17-2 ATS last 20 years / 12-1 ATS last 10 years: All NBA home teams off a SU non-division road FAV loss of 8 or more points (TRAILBLAZERS) versus any .600 > opponent (Thunder), when the OU line is 209 or more points.

The Thunder is basically in an identical situation. They were road favorites versus the Timberwolves two nights ago. They were SHOCKED in that one, and ending losing by 11 points (131-120)… 2-11 ATS last 6 years / 1-8 ATS last four years: All NBA same-DIVISION road underdogs of > 2 points off a SU division road FAV loss of Double Digits (Thunder).

We also ran a query for teams like Oklahoma City who are on extended multi-game ATS losing streaks… 0-8-1 ATS last three years: All DIVISION road underdogs off 5 or more ATS losses in a row (Thunder).

Pick Made: Mar 6 2019 2:54PM PST

pjoyce5893 · Mar 7, 2019

CleInsidersports (2-0 yest)

NBA
Thunder/Blazers UNDER 233

NCAAB
UCF ML (-145)

MLB Spring Training (Leans only, not official plays) 3-1 yest
Twins +1.5 (-135)

ACP · Mar 7, 2019

bulat said:
Anybody got Novers 3* NHL play?

Got it bro. Here it is

3* LA KINGS +25

now +150 and climbing.

MMfan · Mar 7, 2019

Mike Lundin

Wisconsin

(note, not sure why his Sacramento game had different lines on different sites yesterday. One shows a push another loss. Is this common for these guys to post different sports books for the same play?)

sorry. This needed up on Wednesday thread by accident too.

MMfan · Mar 7, 2019

Does anyone see Scott Rickenbach plays[h=2][/h]

Cbass1533 · Mar 7, 2019

This place is a ghost town today

RapidRacing · Mar 7, 2019

Anyone have Big Al’s two plays today in NCAAB? They are his games of the year.

The Greatest One · Mar 7, 2019

Cbass1533 said:
This place is a ghost town today

Everyone went broke following these plays

Sixersfan+ · Mar 7, 2019

[h=3]John Martin[/h]

Game Details

Mar 07 '19, 10:35 PM in 6h

NBA | Thunder vs Blazers

Play on: Blazers -3½ -110 at Mirage

ChiefWiggum · Mar 7, 2019

Brad powers (dream preview)
Colorado -5

Any sleepy J? He's hot

JERSEYKID7 · Mar 7, 2019

Cbass1533 said:
This place is a ghost town today

Maybe you should contribute some plays?

whoshot · Mar 7, 2019

nothing but 90% losing handicappers here and people keep asking for plays lmao

tino42000 · Mar 7, 2019

i know others have posted it, but shakers unders have been solid over last 2-3 weeks

JohnSilk · Mar 7, 2019

I was just about to ask if anyone could recommend someone to tail for the upcoming tourney. I've had Paramount Sports (Lee Sterling) and John Rainey (The Rainman) over the years but like you guys have said, they all suck and get hot and cold. But still curious if there are any good recommendations. Thanks to all who contribute to this board.

PAZ · Mar 7, 2019

whoshot said:
nothing but 90% losing handicappers here and people keep asking for plays lmao

so why are you here just to bust balls

superfishy · Mar 7, 2019

gotta ride long term with someone. If you pick and choose you'll always lose your ass. Just gotta make sure the dude you're riding with is worth it.... judging off records 75% aren't.