Are the Lightning the best team of the NHL's analytics era?
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Something very rare happened in the NHL on Thursday night.
Not only did the Tampa Bay Lightning lose, they were shut out by the Minnesota Wild on home ice. The 3-0 defeat marked the Lightning's 13th regulation loss this season, and just the second time all season they had been held scoreless.
With 51 wins in 68 games, Tampa Bay has the most victories by March 8 of any team since the 2004-05 lockout. The 2015-16 Washington Capitals are the next closest contender, with 49 wins by this date.
It isn't easy to put the Lightning's season into historical context. There was no salary cap until the 2005-06 season, and ties still existed before the 2004-05 lockout. We also don't have access to statistics that can give us a more accurate depiction of a team's dominance. The stats like scoring rates, shot attempts and shot locations we use today didn't come into prominence for the public until 2007-08.
So as we head down the final stretch of the regular season, we can compare the Lightning to teams of the last decade-plus. Are they truly the best team in the analytics era? Or have things just bounced their way? And what are the odds the Lightning finally get over the hump and take home their first Stanley Cup since 2003-04?
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Stats via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference.
Scoring
Tampa Bay's incredible success this season starts with its ability to score at will during 5-on-5 play. They lead the NHL with 3.09 even-strength goals per 60 minutes.
Seven Lightning forwards have double-digit even-strength goals, with dynamic forwards Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov leading the way with 20 tallies each; both Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have notched 18 even-strength goals. The San Jose Sharks are the only other team in the league with four players clearing 18 5-on-5 goals.
Kucherov leads the league in even-strength assists with 45, three ahead of Sidney Crosby. Defenseman Ryan McDonagh is 15th among NHL defensemen with 28 even-strength points.
Their even-strength attack goes three lines deep. All 13 of youngster Mathieu Joseph's goals have come at 5-on-5. Only three rookies have more even-strength goals than Joseph.
The Lightning are the second best even-strength scoring team since even-strength scoring rate became available, trailing only the 2009-10 Washington Capitals, who produced 3.29 goals per 60 minutes. Alex Ovechkin led the NHL that season with 37 even-strength goals.
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Note: The lockout-shortened season of 2012-13 is not included.
The Lightning's outrageously successful power play has produced goals on 29.0 percent of opportunities, best in the NHL. No team since 2007-08 has cleared 27 percent in a full season. In the context of great power plays of this era, Pittsburgh produced on 26.2 percent last season, and the 2008-09 Red Wings scored on 25.2 percent of power plays.
Possession
While the 2017-18 Capitals were not dominant in shot attempt differential, recent Stanley Cup champions have generally been the best at controlling the puck. The 2017-18 Capitals ranked 24th in regular season Corsi for percentage, but before the Caps broke the mold, only one champion had ranked in the bottom half of the league since 2007-08 (the 2008-09 Penguins), and five winners finished either first or second in Corsi for percentage in the regular season.
The Cup champs over the past 11 seasons rank eighth, on average, in Corsi for percentage. Coincidentally, the Lightning currently sit eighth, controlling 51.6 percent of shot attempts. The Lightning are eighth in shot attempts for and 11th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes of even-strength hockey.
This puts them well behind some of the best teams of the analytics era.
The most possession-dominant team of this era is the 2007-08 Red Wings, who took an outrageous 58.8 percent. In terms of shots on goal, the Wings averaged 33.7 shots for compared to just 23.0 shots against per 60 even-strength minutes that season. Detroit ranked No. 1 in both categories.
Other impressive shot differential performances include the 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks, at 56.4 percent, and 2013-14 Kings, with 56.8 percent.
Shot attempts do not tell the entire story, but the Lightning aren't wow-worthy when we dig deeper into the shot distribution. They rank fourth in Natural Stat Trick's scoring chances per 60, seventh in high-danger shot attempts, and seventh in both scoring chance and high-danger differential.
What does it mean?
The Lightning have relied on the third highest shooting percentage in the NHL at even strength (9.58 percent). With many teams, this would be a red flag for regression, but the bevy of incredibly skilled players on the Tampa Bay roster makes it reasonable to think they will keep producing goals on a high percentage of shots, even if they aren't getting as many chances as other teams. Last season's Capitals, for example, were second in even-strength shooting percentage.
The shot attempt differential does tell us that the Lightning are not the most possession-dominant team in the analytics era. That hurts their overall argument for being best of the best.
Goaltending
One of the main reasons for the Lightning's outstanding 59.1 percent all-situations goals for percentage (best in the NHL by 3.3 percentage points) is goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who leads the NHL in save percentage, at .931 in 43 starts.
He is currently sitting four save percentage points ahead of last season's Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne, and has the same save percentage mark as 2016-17 winner Sergei Bobrovsky.
However, if he continues his pace, Vasilevskiy's performance may stand out among recent netminders to get the nod as the league's top goalie. The league average save percentage suddenly dipped from .912 last season to .909 this season, meaning the circumstances in which Vasilevskiy has dominated are tougher than in the recent past.
If we take penalty kill save percentage out of the equation because of its volatility, we find Vasilevskiy is still toward the top, at .930. Toronto's Frederik Andersen is the only goalie with 40 or more starts who has a higher even-strength save percentage (.935).
Considering the Lightning are not strong in key defensive areas like shots on goal against per 60 minutes (18th), scoring chances against per 60 (21st) and high-danger shots against per 60 (ninth), it is clear that outstanding goaltending has raised the overall defensive performance of the team. Despite Vezina-level play from Vasilevskiy, Tampa is still just ninth in goals against per 60.
Looking ahead: Standings points and Cup chances
Following their defeat at the hands of the Wild, the Lightning have a 0.779 standings point percentage. The best team of the analytics era in that metric is the 2009-10 Capitals, who finished the season with a 0.738 point percentage. The Caps, as you know, did not raise the Cup that spring.
In fact, very few of the best teams in terms of point percentage did end up raising the Cup; the 2007-08 Red Wings are the only team of the analytics era to lead the NHL in point percentage and win a title.
That doesn't mean it is a bad omen to be the best regular-season team. It says more about the parity in the NHL and the nature of the game in general.
While the Lightning are running away from everyone in the standings, the Boston Bruins have suddenly caught fire, picking up points in 18 straight games. The B's are No. 1 in goals against per 60 at even strength in the NHL. The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders have better goals for percentages at 5-on-5 than Tampa Bay. Toronto is 0.03 goals scored per 60 minutes behind the Lightning and the Caps are 0.05 behind.
So not only are the Lightning lacking in a great case for the best team of the analytics era because of their shortcomings on puck dominance and defense, their case for the best team in the NHL is tenuous, despite their ridiculous points pace. If they were to suffer a cold streak on the power play or Vasilevskiy ran into a few bad bounces or an injury, Tampa Bay could look much more like one club in the middle of an awesome race for the Eastern Conference rather than the runaway best team in the NHL.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Something very rare happened in the NHL on Thursday night.
Not only did the Tampa Bay Lightning lose, they were shut out by the Minnesota Wild on home ice. The 3-0 defeat marked the Lightning's 13th regulation loss this season, and just the second time all season they had been held scoreless.
With 51 wins in 68 games, Tampa Bay has the most victories by March 8 of any team since the 2004-05 lockout. The 2015-16 Washington Capitals are the next closest contender, with 49 wins by this date.
It isn't easy to put the Lightning's season into historical context. There was no salary cap until the 2005-06 season, and ties still existed before the 2004-05 lockout. We also don't have access to statistics that can give us a more accurate depiction of a team's dominance. The stats like scoring rates, shot attempts and shot locations we use today didn't come into prominence for the public until 2007-08.
So as we head down the final stretch of the regular season, we can compare the Lightning to teams of the last decade-plus. Are they truly the best team in the analytics era? Or have things just bounced their way? And what are the odds the Lightning finally get over the hump and take home their first Stanley Cup since 2003-04?
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Stats via Natural Stat Trick and Hockey-Reference.
Scoring
Tampa Bay's incredible success this season starts with its ability to score at will during 5-on-5 play. They lead the NHL with 3.09 even-strength goals per 60 minutes.
Seven Lightning forwards have double-digit even-strength goals, with dynamic forwards Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov leading the way with 20 tallies each; both Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have notched 18 even-strength goals. The San Jose Sharks are the only other team in the league with four players clearing 18 5-on-5 goals.
Kucherov leads the league in even-strength assists with 45, three ahead of Sidney Crosby. Defenseman Ryan McDonagh is 15th among NHL defensemen with 28 even-strength points.
Their even-strength attack goes three lines deep. All 13 of youngster Mathieu Joseph's goals have come at 5-on-5. Only three rookies have more even-strength goals than Joseph.
The Lightning are the second best even-strength scoring team since even-strength scoring rate became available, trailing only the 2009-10 Washington Capitals, who produced 3.29 goals per 60 minutes. Alex Ovechkin led the NHL that season with 37 even-strength goals.
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| SEASON | TEAM | EVEN-STRENGTH GOALS PER 60 MINUTES |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-08 | Ottawa Senators | 2.67 |
| 2008-09 | Detroit Red Wings | 2.79 |
| 2009-10 | Washington Capitals | 3.29 |
| 2010-11 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2.75 |
| 2011-12 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.90 |
| 2013-14 | Anaheim Ducks | 2.95 |
| 2014-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.78 |
| 2015-16 | Dallas Stars | 2.51 |
| 2016-17 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.81 |
| 2017-18 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.02 |
| 2018-19 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.09 |
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Note: The lockout-shortened season of 2012-13 is not included.
The Lightning's outrageously successful power play has produced goals on 29.0 percent of opportunities, best in the NHL. No team since 2007-08 has cleared 27 percent in a full season. In the context of great power plays of this era, Pittsburgh produced on 26.2 percent last season, and the 2008-09 Red Wings scored on 25.2 percent of power plays.
Possession
While the 2017-18 Capitals were not dominant in shot attempt differential, recent Stanley Cup champions have generally been the best at controlling the puck. The 2017-18 Capitals ranked 24th in regular season Corsi for percentage, but before the Caps broke the mold, only one champion had ranked in the bottom half of the league since 2007-08 (the 2008-09 Penguins), and five winners finished either first or second in Corsi for percentage in the regular season.
The Cup champs over the past 11 seasons rank eighth, on average, in Corsi for percentage. Coincidentally, the Lightning currently sit eighth, controlling 51.6 percent of shot attempts. The Lightning are eighth in shot attempts for and 11th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes of even-strength hockey.
This puts them well behind some of the best teams of the analytics era.
The most possession-dominant team of this era is the 2007-08 Red Wings, who took an outrageous 58.8 percent. In terms of shots on goal, the Wings averaged 33.7 shots for compared to just 23.0 shots against per 60 even-strength minutes that season. Detroit ranked No. 1 in both categories.
Other impressive shot differential performances include the 2009-10 Chicago Blackhawks, at 56.4 percent, and 2013-14 Kings, with 56.8 percent.
Shot attempts do not tell the entire story, but the Lightning aren't wow-worthy when we dig deeper into the shot distribution. They rank fourth in Natural Stat Trick's scoring chances per 60, seventh in high-danger shot attempts, and seventh in both scoring chance and high-danger differential.
What does it mean?
The Lightning have relied on the third highest shooting percentage in the NHL at even strength (9.58 percent). With many teams, this would be a red flag for regression, but the bevy of incredibly skilled players on the Tampa Bay roster makes it reasonable to think they will keep producing goals on a high percentage of shots, even if they aren't getting as many chances as other teams. Last season's Capitals, for example, were second in even-strength shooting percentage.
The shot attempt differential does tell us that the Lightning are not the most possession-dominant team in the analytics era. That hurts their overall argument for being best of the best.
Goaltending
One of the main reasons for the Lightning's outstanding 59.1 percent all-situations goals for percentage (best in the NHL by 3.3 percentage points) is goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who leads the NHL in save percentage, at .931 in 43 starts.
He is currently sitting four save percentage points ahead of last season's Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne, and has the same save percentage mark as 2016-17 winner Sergei Bobrovsky.
However, if he continues his pace, Vasilevskiy's performance may stand out among recent netminders to get the nod as the league's top goalie. The league average save percentage suddenly dipped from .912 last season to .909 this season, meaning the circumstances in which Vasilevskiy has dominated are tougher than in the recent past.
If we take penalty kill save percentage out of the equation because of its volatility, we find Vasilevskiy is still toward the top, at .930. Toronto's Frederik Andersen is the only goalie with 40 or more starts who has a higher even-strength save percentage (.935).
Considering the Lightning are not strong in key defensive areas like shots on goal against per 60 minutes (18th), scoring chances against per 60 (21st) and high-danger shots against per 60 (ninth), it is clear that outstanding goaltending has raised the overall defensive performance of the team. Despite Vezina-level play from Vasilevskiy, Tampa is still just ninth in goals against per 60.
Looking ahead: Standings points and Cup chances
Following their defeat at the hands of the Wild, the Lightning have a 0.779 standings point percentage. The best team of the analytics era in that metric is the 2009-10 Capitals, who finished the season with a 0.738 point percentage. The Caps, as you know, did not raise the Cup that spring.
In fact, very few of the best teams in terms of point percentage did end up raising the Cup; the 2007-08 Red Wings are the only team of the analytics era to lead the NHL in point percentage and win a title.
That doesn't mean it is a bad omen to be the best regular-season team. It says more about the parity in the NHL and the nature of the game in general.
While the Lightning are running away from everyone in the standings, the Boston Bruins have suddenly caught fire, picking up points in 18 straight games. The B's are No. 1 in goals against per 60 at even strength in the NHL. The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders have better goals for percentages at 5-on-5 than Tampa Bay. Toronto is 0.03 goals scored per 60 minutes behind the Lightning and the Caps are 0.05 behind.
So not only are the Lightning lacking in a great case for the best team of the analytics era because of their shortcomings on puck dominance and defense, their case for the best team in the NHL is tenuous, despite their ridiculous points pace. If they were to suffer a cold streak on the power play or Vasilevskiy ran into a few bad bounces or an injury, Tampa Bay could look much more like one club in the middle of an awesome race for the Eastern Conference rather than the runaway best team in the NHL.
