ive followed some under trends on that in the past and done well but its very matchup based. gotta look at pace as well when it comes to that though. a lot of teams with a short bench that play a hard faught game the night/day previous just lose their legs in the second half and cant hit a jumpshot.
i agree that the rest plays a factor but typically it depends on how competitive the game the day before was. rhode island for example won by 19 yesterday and was leading by dd at half. shouldnt be too much of factor for them today.
good luck. its not a bad strategy but like anything ya gotta pick your spots.