[h=1]Picking the most underrated, overrated 2019 NFL free-agent signings[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
NFL free agency kicked off in a big way during the league's annual legal-tampering period, and now that deals are official, we can sift through the contracts to see which teams fared well and which did poorly.
Using Pro Football Focus grades to help evaluate each player and the deal he received, here are the most underrated and most overrated deals handed out so far:
[h=2]FIVE UNDERRATED DEALS[/h]
[h=2]Jordan Hicks, ILB, Arizona Cardinals[/h]The deal: Four years, $36 million, $12 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: Injuries are the obvious reason why Hicks' deal paled in comparison to the new contracts for Kwon Alexander, Anthony Barr and C.J. Mosley, but when on the field, Hicks has been the best of the bunch. Even after his Achilles tear in 2017, Hicks played 775 snaps in 2018 and was the highest graded of the group. He has missed only 25 tackles for his entire career -- a figure Alexander has topped in single seasons -- and Hicks has proved to be good in coverage, something vitally important in today's NFL
[h=2]Adrian Amos, S, Green Bay Packers[/h]The deal: Four years, $36 million, $12 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: While much of the safety market corrected itself, there simply wasn't enough interest with all the talent on the market and a few players slipped through the cracks. Amos' deal didn't come close to matching his grading over the past couple of seasons as he has been one of the most sound box safeties in the game since being drafted in the fifth round in 2015, earning top-10 coverage grades each season. Traditional statistics might not get you too excited about Amos, but he's a massive upgrade for Green Bay.
[h=2]Ty Nsekhe, OT, Buffalo Bills[/h]The deal: Two years, $14.5 million, $7.7 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: You really have to dig deep for why we love Nsekhe, seeing as he has never played more than 403 snaps in a single season. When you take into consideration his performance over his last three seasons in Washington -- where he played just 1,093 snaps -- you get one of the better tackles in the NFL. Over that span, Nsekhe has an overall PFF grade of 71.6 and has been good in both pass protection and in the run game.
[h=2]Earl Thomas, S, Baltimore Ravens[/h]The deal: Four years, $55 million, $32 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: Signing the best safety on the market for the third-most money on a per-season basis is a steal. You can see why teams would want to go younger, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old should still be one of the best safeties in the league over the span of this four-year deal. In five out of the past six seasons, he has earned a PFF coverage grade of at least 89.0. Thomas is a Hall of Fame talent who should age gracefully, despite missing chunks of the past two seasons with injuries.
[h=2]John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills[/h]The deal: Three years, $27 million, $10.1 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: Given how valuable the ability to win downfield is in the NFL, it's surprising that Brown was given a modest three-year deal. The last time he played with a quarterback who earned a grade of 75.0 or higher on the season was 2015, and Brown went for over 1,000 yards that season. Even last season, he was on pace for 1,068 yards before Lamar Jackson took over and zapped his effectiveness. Brown still finished the 2018 season averaging more yards per route (1.50) than Tyrell Williams (1.41) and Adam Humphries (1.43), who both got bigger deals.
[h=2]FIVE OVERRATED DEALS[/h]
[h=2]Trent Brown, OT, Oakland Raiders[/h]The deal: Four years, $66 million, $36.8 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: Brown got the biggest contract for a tackle in NFL history, but our metrics suggest he's not even a top-10 tackle in the league right now. He allowed 35 pressures last season, even with Tom Brady's quick release, ranking him 18th among the 26 tackles who played more than 1,000 snaps. Brown is an upgrade for Oakland, where rookie Kolton Miller's 65 pressures allowed were second worst in the league, but the cost for the 6-foot-8 tackle was far too much.
[h=2]Bobby Hart, OT, Cincinnati Bengals[/h]The deal: Three years, $21 million, $5.5 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: The right tackle position could be worse in Cincinnati, but not by much. Paying $7 million a year to not be the worst seems outrageous. Hart allowed an egregious 10 sacks and committed 11 penalties last season. He is only 24 and the developmental curve along the offensive line can take awhile, but the signs aren't encouraging.
[h=2]Kwon Alexander, ILB, San Francisco 49ers[/h]The deal: Four years, $54 million, $14.25 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: Alexander has been the worst-tackling linebacker in the league since he was drafted in 2015 -- by a solid margin. Even though he played only 366 snaps last season before he tore his ACL, Alexander's 78 missed tackles are the second most in the league over the past four seasons, while his 18 percent missed tackle rate is the worst in the NFL. The 49ers already had a very serious tackling problem with the third-highest missed tackle rate of any defense in the NFL last season (15 percent of attempts). Alexander can certainly cover a ton of ground but expect a lot of misses in the future.
[h=2]Adam Humphries, WR, Tennessee Titans[/h]The deal: Four years, $36 million, $16 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: Humphries is a case of volume stats versus rate stats. His 816 receiving yards look great and were the 28th most at the position last season; however, the former Bucs wideout benefited from the fact that the Bucs' 729 passing dropbacks were the second most in the NFL. On a per-pass basis, Humphries averaged 1.43 yards per route, which ranked only 52nd among 96 qualifying receivers. His 1.41 yards per route from the slot ranked only 12th out of 26 qualifying pass-catchers.
[h=2]Tyler Kroft, TE, Buffalo Bills[/h]The deal: Three years, $18.75 million
Why it's overrated: Offensive weapons were sparse on the free-agent market, but that doesn't mean a team should have had to pick through the bottom of the barrel on the first day. Kroft got $7 million a year after all of 616 yards in four seasons with the Bengals. Even in 2017, the lone full season in which he was a full-time starter, Kroft ranked 20th out of 22 qualifying tight ends with a measly 1.06 yards per route. That's not doing second-year quarterback Josh Allen any favors.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
NFL free agency kicked off in a big way during the league's annual legal-tampering period, and now that deals are official, we can sift through the contracts to see which teams fared well and which did poorly.
Using Pro Football Focus grades to help evaluate each player and the deal he received, here are the most underrated and most overrated deals handed out so far:
[h=2]FIVE UNDERRATED DEALS[/h]
Why it's underrated: Injuries are the obvious reason why Hicks' deal paled in comparison to the new contracts for Kwon Alexander, Anthony Barr and C.J. Mosley, but when on the field, Hicks has been the best of the bunch. Even after his Achilles tear in 2017, Hicks played 775 snaps in 2018 and was the highest graded of the group. He has missed only 25 tackles for his entire career -- a figure Alexander has topped in single seasons -- and Hicks has proved to be good in coverage, something vitally important in today's NFL
[h=2]Adrian Amos, S, Green Bay Packers[/h]The deal: Four years, $36 million, $12 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: While much of the safety market corrected itself, there simply wasn't enough interest with all the talent on the market and a few players slipped through the cracks. Amos' deal didn't come close to matching his grading over the past couple of seasons as he has been one of the most sound box safeties in the game since being drafted in the fifth round in 2015, earning top-10 coverage grades each season. Traditional statistics might not get you too excited about Amos, but he's a massive upgrade for Green Bay.
[h=2]Ty Nsekhe, OT, Buffalo Bills[/h]The deal: Two years, $14.5 million, $7.7 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: You really have to dig deep for why we love Nsekhe, seeing as he has never played more than 403 snaps in a single season. When you take into consideration his performance over his last three seasons in Washington -- where he played just 1,093 snaps -- you get one of the better tackles in the NFL. Over that span, Nsekhe has an overall PFF grade of 71.6 and has been good in both pass protection and in the run game.
[h=2]Earl Thomas, S, Baltimore Ravens[/h]The deal: Four years, $55 million, $32 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: Signing the best safety on the market for the third-most money on a per-season basis is a steal. You can see why teams would want to go younger, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old should still be one of the best safeties in the league over the span of this four-year deal. In five out of the past six seasons, he has earned a PFF coverage grade of at least 89.0. Thomas is a Hall of Fame talent who should age gracefully, despite missing chunks of the past two seasons with injuries.
[h=2]John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills[/h]The deal: Three years, $27 million, $10.1 million guaranteed
Why it's underrated: Given how valuable the ability to win downfield is in the NFL, it's surprising that Brown was given a modest three-year deal. The last time he played with a quarterback who earned a grade of 75.0 or higher on the season was 2015, and Brown went for over 1,000 yards that season. Even last season, he was on pace for 1,068 yards before Lamar Jackson took over and zapped his effectiveness. Brown still finished the 2018 season averaging more yards per route (1.50) than Tyrell Williams (1.41) and Adam Humphries (1.43), who both got bigger deals.
[h=2]FIVE OVERRATED DEALS[/h]
[h=2]Trent Brown, OT, Oakland Raiders[/h]The deal: Four years, $66 million, $36.8 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: Brown got the biggest contract for a tackle in NFL history, but our metrics suggest he's not even a top-10 tackle in the league right now. He allowed 35 pressures last season, even with Tom Brady's quick release, ranking him 18th among the 26 tackles who played more than 1,000 snaps. Brown is an upgrade for Oakland, where rookie Kolton Miller's 65 pressures allowed were second worst in the league, but the cost for the 6-foot-8 tackle was far too much.
[h=2]Bobby Hart, OT, Cincinnati Bengals[/h]The deal: Three years, $21 million, $5.5 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: The right tackle position could be worse in Cincinnati, but not by much. Paying $7 million a year to not be the worst seems outrageous. Hart allowed an egregious 10 sacks and committed 11 penalties last season. He is only 24 and the developmental curve along the offensive line can take awhile, but the signs aren't encouraging.
[h=2]Kwon Alexander, ILB, San Francisco 49ers[/h]The deal: Four years, $54 million, $14.25 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: Alexander has been the worst-tackling linebacker in the league since he was drafted in 2015 -- by a solid margin. Even though he played only 366 snaps last season before he tore his ACL, Alexander's 78 missed tackles are the second most in the league over the past four seasons, while his 18 percent missed tackle rate is the worst in the NFL. The 49ers already had a very serious tackling problem with the third-highest missed tackle rate of any defense in the NFL last season (15 percent of attempts). Alexander can certainly cover a ton of ground but expect a lot of misses in the future.
[h=2]Adam Humphries, WR, Tennessee Titans[/h]The deal: Four years, $36 million, $16 million guaranteed
Why it's overrated: Humphries is a case of volume stats versus rate stats. His 816 receiving yards look great and were the 28th most at the position last season; however, the former Bucs wideout benefited from the fact that the Bucs' 729 passing dropbacks were the second most in the NFL. On a per-pass basis, Humphries averaged 1.43 yards per route, which ranked only 52nd among 96 qualifying receivers. His 1.41 yards per route from the slot ranked only 12th out of 26 qualifying pass-catchers.
[h=2]Tyler Kroft, TE, Buffalo Bills[/h]The deal: Three years, $18.75 million
Why it's overrated: Offensive weapons were sparse on the free-agent market, but that doesn't mean a team should have had to pick through the bottom of the barrel on the first day. Kroft got $7 million a year after all of 616 yards in four seasons with the Bengals. Even in 2017, the lone full season in which he was a full-time starter, Kroft ranked 20th out of 22 qualifying tight ends with a measly 1.06 yards per route. That's not doing second-year quarterback Josh Allen any favors.
