[h=3]EAST REGION[/h]
Best Bets
No. 11 Belmont Bruins vs. No. 6 Maryland Terrapins
Upset chance: 32 percent
One of the last and possibly most surprising teams in the field could stay for a while. No, 32 percent isn't the near-coin-flip chance that Giant Killers gave Loyola-Chicago in the Ramblers' round-of-64 game against Miami a year ago, but "best bet" is an apt description for this upset in the making. No other GK game in the East offers as much potential for a "shocking" outcome.
It won't be easy. For starters, Maryland is a win away for Rick Byrd's team. The Bruins will first have to navigate the First Four in Dayton, where they'll find the high-volume scoring ways of Temple's Shizz Alston and Qunton Rose in their path. If BU can make it out of the Gem City, however, it's got a fighting chance against the Terrapins.
Dylan Windler has been torching opponents all season long with his versatility as a 6-foot-8 stretch 4. (In any "normal" season he would have been a shoo-in for Ohio Valley Conference player of the year, but in 2018-19 that nod understandably went to Murray State's Ja Morant.) Make no mistake, Maryland can and will force missed shots, but the Terps' habit of committing more turnovers than the opponent could certainly be a problem against high-scoring Belmont.
Worth a Long Look
No. 11 Temple Owls vs. No. 6 Maryland Terrapins
Upset chance: 24 percent
If you're reading your East Region preview of upsets top to bottom (and you really should), you know all about Maryland and its ability to force missed shots but also its propensity to operate at a turnover deficit relative to opponents. That brings us to Temple: Fran Dunphy's team can throw Alston and Rose at the Terrapin defense and fare quite well, thank you.
The Owls' offense doesn't look like anything exceptional on paper, but keep in mind these guys picked up their efficiency on the back half of the American conference season. Alston is one of the best free throw shooters in the nation, and Rose is a disruptive presence on defense who can force turnovers. Yes, rebounds will be a (big) concern for Temple at both ends of the floor, but if Dunphy's men rise to the occasion on the glass this can be a close game.
No. 12 Liberty Flames vs. No. 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Upset chance: 23 percent
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Throughout much of 2018-19, Giant Killers has been waxing enthusiastic about the March upset potential of the Atlantic Sun. With two teams the quality of Liberty and Lipscomb, we here at Giant Killers HQ figured this was one league that would make some noise come March.
Mission accomplished. The No. 12 seed earned by the Flames represents the best bracket position the league has ever earned under its current name. Liberty works the clock and gets good and even excellent shots for Scottie James, Caleb Homesleyand their teammates. The matchup between the Flame defense and the MSU offense doesn't project to be nearly as favorable to the underdog, but if Ritchie McKay's men can just hold their own on that side of the ball this could become one of those 12-5 surprises.
Not Completely Crazy
No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 LSU Tigers
Upset chance: 15 percent
An Ivy team beating the SEC regular-season champion? Well, it's not completely crazy. For starters, the Bulldogs have Miye Oni, a skilled 6-foot-6 junior who lit up the Miami Hurricanes earlier this season for 29 points on just 15 shots. Plus, that "SEC regular-season champion" thing, while earned on the floor, can be slightly deceiving as a description.
LSU went to overtime a whopping six times in league play, and emerged victorious on no fewer than five occasions. The Tigers weren't necessarily blowing away opponents every night. Yes, this one's a bit of a stretch, but if you're feeling the hoops gods talking to you on an upset with better than a 1-in-10 chance, by all means, give it a look.
Stay Away
No. 13 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies
Upset chance: 7 percent
A crazy Atlantic 10 tournament ended with SLU pulling out a wild last-minute win against St. Bonaventure and earning the league's automatic bid. Give the Billikens credit, after winning a (relative) shootout against Richmond, Travis Ford's team shut down the offenses of Dayton, Davidson and the Bonnies in succession.
Alas, the GK model is not optimistic that Saint Louis will be able to do the same against the highly accurate Virginia Tech offense, particularly now that Justin Robinson is reportedly set to return to action after recovering from his foot injury.
No. 15 Bradley Braves vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Upset chance: 2 percent
The GK model might see a glimmer of a hope of an upset if Michigan State were playing a Missouri Valley opponent like Drake or, yes, Loyola Chicago. True, Brian Wardle's team can play some defense, but the Braves had a tough time making shots against MVC opponents. Doing so against the Spartans may also prove difficult.
No. 16 North Dakota State Bison or No. 16 North Carolina Central Eagles vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
Upset chances: 2 percent or less
The North Dakota State team that beat Oklahoma in in the 2014 round of 64 could, hypothetically, keep things close against 2019 Duke for a while. In the present tense, however, neither the Bison nor the Eagles project to have much that will slow down RJ Barrett, Tre Jones and that other guy.