[h=1]Duke vs. the field: A bracket betting roundtable[/h]
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The NCAA tournament has an abundance of betting opportunities available. Will Duke or the field win it all? What underdog should you put your money on in the first round? What is your favorite value bet to win a region?
We asked three of our gambling experts -- Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz -- where they are putting their money.
[h=2]You have to pick Duke or the field? Who are you going with?[/h]Kezirian: I do feel the Blue Devils are the team to beat (and will probably win it all), but I lean to the field at the current odds. If Duke were 3-1 or 4-1, I'd probably take it, but there isn't value on it at this price. The issues for me are the Blue Devils' poor 3-point shooting and how foul trouble could jeopardize a thin roster. Plus, the East Region is actually quite difficult, even though Duke is the top overall seed. Given the odds, I would lean the field.
Johnson: I only project Duke to win it all 19.4 percent of the time, or +415. It's around +200 at most books right now. So at around -275, or whatever the field price is at a certain book, that's where the value lies.
Schultz: The field! No doubt about it. I like the Zags, but there are maybe 10 others who can win this whole thing. Remember, too, Duke has Michigan State in its bracket as an underseeded 2, and I agree with Doug about its 3-point shooting woes. While the Blue Devils have the most talent in the field -- most notably phenom Zion Williamson -- they remain a very young, very inexperienced roster that is vulnerable in a one-game elimination format.
[h=2]What is your favorite value bet to come out of a region?[/h]Kezirian: Louisville at 18-1 to win the East Region intrigues me. The Cardinals were overshadowed by the nation's elite in the ACC but still held their own in several games. They had Virginia and Duke on the ropes before blowing those leads. Louisville is certainly capable of beating Michigan State and shaking up the region.
Johnson: I have Virginia coming out of the [South] region 50.5 percent of the time (true line of -102), so I'm showing a 6.1 percent edge on the Cavaliers (currently around +125). They have become an unattractive contrarian 1-seed despite ranking top five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Yes, they lost to 16-seed UMBC last year, but that's why there is value here. They have elite talent. Don't let the slowest pace in the country fool you.
Schultz: I still think Gonzaga (+120) is being overlooked, despite a tremendous season and the best talent Mark Few has ever had in Spokane. The Zags were my preseason pick to win a national championship, in large part because of their offensive balance, including star Rui Hachimura (20.1 PPG on 60.9 percent shooting). Defense always travels in March, and the Bulldogs grind teams down with their man-to-man "D," ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
[h=2]What is your favorite first-round underdog to win outright?[/h]Kezirian: Technically, it's Oregon. I just love how the Ducks are playing lately, winning and covering eight straight games. The Pac-12 is not loaded with great teams, but Dana Altman has this team peaking right now.
In terms of a decent-sized underdog, I would pick Ohio State. I don't particularly love this Buckeyes team, but Kaleb Wesson is a force. He's more than capable of being the best player on the court. Iowa State has demonstrated more than its fair share of inconsistency, including a recent stretch when it lost five of six games.
Johnson: My favorite first-round underdog to win outright is Baylor, even though the Bears are only a two-point 'dog. It seems like most are already counting the Bears out, but they overload zones and effectively use screening tactics that generate lobs for dunks, open 3s and driving lanes when defenders are out of position. This is a matchup nightmare for the Orange 2-3 zone that I don't think many recognize.
As far as a double-digit 'dog that can win, my pick would be 14-seed Georgia State over 3-seed Houston. Tactically, Houston gives up a high rate of 3-pointers to its opponents, and Georgia State ranks 17th in the country from deep (38.4 percent). Houston has also been one of the luckiest teams in the country in regard to opponents missing open 3s, while Georgia State has been fairly unlucky with its opponents making an unusual amount of open 3s. If regression decides to come crashing down with both squads Friday, I don't mind the high-variance approach here picking the Panthers to win outright.
Schultz: Let's go out west; way west. Washington has quietly dominated the Pac-12 all year, in large part because of its perimeter play. Sophomore shooting guard Jaylen Nowell (16.2 PPG on 43.8 percent 3s) -- the conference Player of the Year -- is a big-time scorer, and Matisse Thybulle is just the third player in the past 20 years to average at least two steals and two blocks per game. The others? Shane Battier and Nerlens Noel. Utah State is a sound team that runs good offense and has a bona fide No. 1 option in Sam Merrill (21.2 PPG on 46.5 percent field goals), but with their disruptive 2-3 matchup zone, the Huskies are primed to do some damage in March -- and the Aggies will be their first victim. The Pac-12 has been hammered for its poor play, which is why UW is catching some points. Take the Huskies straight up and thank me later.
[h=2]The sum of seed numbers to make the Final Four is O/U 11.5. Which way are you going?[/h]
Kezirian: I lean to the under, as this tournament feels very top-heavy. While I understand that upsets inevitably occur, I don't see a seventh straight year of at least a 7-seed advancing to the Final Four. I anticipate relative chalk, when all is said and done.
Johnson: I already went to MGM on Sunday night to bet this; I really think it's a bad line. There aren't too many legitimate contenders to win regions in my opinion that aren't a 1-seed or 2-seed, outside of maybe Wofford, Auburn and Virginia Tech. Even in the case Wofford as a 7-seed wins the Midwest Region (I project it happens 5.9 percent of the time), this prop bet still has room to cash under 11.5. It isn't very fun rooting for chalk, but considering I think UVa and Gonzaga are 1-seeds the market is undervaluing anyway entering the tournament, I don't mind at all.
Schultz: Under, way under. There are plenty of lower -- even double-digit -- seeds worth looking at to make deep runs, but the Final Four has no space this year for a Cinderella. I really like teams that can either shoot it or lock you down -- think Wofford, Kansas State and Buffalo -- but as a whole, the 1 and 2 lines are too strong to get us over the 11.5 mark.
[h=2]The double-digit seed you can make money on this tournament is ...?[/h]Kezirian: Florida is very dangerous as a 10-seed. I like the Gators in their opener with Nevada, which is battling injuries, and I'm just not sold on Michigan. The Wolverines are very well coached, but the Gators have demonstrated flashes that would suggest they're up for this challenge. A path exists for Florida to make a run.
Johnson: The three double-digit seeds I have most likely making a run to the Sweet 16 are Saint Mary's, Florida and Iowa. So in theory they would be the teams that could make us the most money if they come through.
Schultz: If you're looking for a big first-round upset, consider Old Dominion and New Mexico State; both teams guard you and control tempo. And don't forget about Ja Morant and Murray State against Markus Howard and slumping Marquette.
But the double-digit seed with the best chance to string together two, maybe even three wins? Try bubble-busting Saint Mary's. The Gaels execute in the half-court and have a terrific guard in junior first-team All-WCC performer Jordan Ford (21.3 PPG on 42.3 percent from 3). Randy Bennett's teams always defend, don't turn the ball over and control tempo with their sluggish pace. Keep in mind, too, that Saint Mary's just held Gonzaga -- the nation's top-scoring team at 88.8 PPG -- to just 47 points on miserable 37.5 percent shooting and under 12 percent from deep.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The NCAA tournament has an abundance of betting opportunities available. Will Duke or the field win it all? What underdog should you put your money on in the first round? What is your favorite value bet to win a region?
We asked three of our gambling experts -- Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Jordan Schultz -- where they are putting their money.
[h=2]You have to pick Duke or the field? Who are you going with?[/h]Kezirian: I do feel the Blue Devils are the team to beat (and will probably win it all), but I lean to the field at the current odds. If Duke were 3-1 or 4-1, I'd probably take it, but there isn't value on it at this price. The issues for me are the Blue Devils' poor 3-point shooting and how foul trouble could jeopardize a thin roster. Plus, the East Region is actually quite difficult, even though Duke is the top overall seed. Given the odds, I would lean the field.
Johnson: I only project Duke to win it all 19.4 percent of the time, or +415. It's around +200 at most books right now. So at around -275, or whatever the field price is at a certain book, that's where the value lies.
Schultz: The field! No doubt about it. I like the Zags, but there are maybe 10 others who can win this whole thing. Remember, too, Duke has Michigan State in its bracket as an underseeded 2, and I agree with Doug about its 3-point shooting woes. While the Blue Devils have the most talent in the field -- most notably phenom Zion Williamson -- they remain a very young, very inexperienced roster that is vulnerable in a one-game elimination format.
[h=2]What is your favorite value bet to come out of a region?[/h]Kezirian: Louisville at 18-1 to win the East Region intrigues me. The Cardinals were overshadowed by the nation's elite in the ACC but still held their own in several games. They had Virginia and Duke on the ropes before blowing those leads. Louisville is certainly capable of beating Michigan State and shaking up the region.
Johnson: I have Virginia coming out of the [South] region 50.5 percent of the time (true line of -102), so I'm showing a 6.1 percent edge on the Cavaliers (currently around +125). They have become an unattractive contrarian 1-seed despite ranking top five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Yes, they lost to 16-seed UMBC last year, but that's why there is value here. They have elite talent. Don't let the slowest pace in the country fool you.
Schultz: I still think Gonzaga (+120) is being overlooked, despite a tremendous season and the best talent Mark Few has ever had in Spokane. The Zags were my preseason pick to win a national championship, in large part because of their offensive balance, including star Rui Hachimura (20.1 PPG on 60.9 percent shooting). Defense always travels in March, and the Bulldogs grind teams down with their man-to-man "D," ranking 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
[h=2]What is your favorite first-round underdog to win outright?[/h]Kezirian: Technically, it's Oregon. I just love how the Ducks are playing lately, winning and covering eight straight games. The Pac-12 is not loaded with great teams, but Dana Altman has this team peaking right now.
In terms of a decent-sized underdog, I would pick Ohio State. I don't particularly love this Buckeyes team, but Kaleb Wesson is a force. He's more than capable of being the best player on the court. Iowa State has demonstrated more than its fair share of inconsistency, including a recent stretch when it lost five of six games.
Johnson: My favorite first-round underdog to win outright is Baylor, even though the Bears are only a two-point 'dog. It seems like most are already counting the Bears out, but they overload zones and effectively use screening tactics that generate lobs for dunks, open 3s and driving lanes when defenders are out of position. This is a matchup nightmare for the Orange 2-3 zone that I don't think many recognize.
As far as a double-digit 'dog that can win, my pick would be 14-seed Georgia State over 3-seed Houston. Tactically, Houston gives up a high rate of 3-pointers to its opponents, and Georgia State ranks 17th in the country from deep (38.4 percent). Houston has also been one of the luckiest teams in the country in regard to opponents missing open 3s, while Georgia State has been fairly unlucky with its opponents making an unusual amount of open 3s. If regression decides to come crashing down with both squads Friday, I don't mind the high-variance approach here picking the Panthers to win outright.
Schultz: Let's go out west; way west. Washington has quietly dominated the Pac-12 all year, in large part because of its perimeter play. Sophomore shooting guard Jaylen Nowell (16.2 PPG on 43.8 percent 3s) -- the conference Player of the Year -- is a big-time scorer, and Matisse Thybulle is just the third player in the past 20 years to average at least two steals and two blocks per game. The others? Shane Battier and Nerlens Noel. Utah State is a sound team that runs good offense and has a bona fide No. 1 option in Sam Merrill (21.2 PPG on 46.5 percent field goals), but with their disruptive 2-3 matchup zone, the Huskies are primed to do some damage in March -- and the Aggies will be their first victim. The Pac-12 has been hammered for its poor play, which is why UW is catching some points. Take the Huskies straight up and thank me later.
[h=2]The sum of seed numbers to make the Final Four is O/U 11.5. Which way are you going?[/h]
Kezirian: I lean to the under, as this tournament feels very top-heavy. While I understand that upsets inevitably occur, I don't see a seventh straight year of at least a 7-seed advancing to the Final Four. I anticipate relative chalk, when all is said and done.
Johnson: I already went to MGM on Sunday night to bet this; I really think it's a bad line. There aren't too many legitimate contenders to win regions in my opinion that aren't a 1-seed or 2-seed, outside of maybe Wofford, Auburn and Virginia Tech. Even in the case Wofford as a 7-seed wins the Midwest Region (I project it happens 5.9 percent of the time), this prop bet still has room to cash under 11.5. It isn't very fun rooting for chalk, but considering I think UVa and Gonzaga are 1-seeds the market is undervaluing anyway entering the tournament, I don't mind at all.
Schultz: Under, way under. There are plenty of lower -- even double-digit -- seeds worth looking at to make deep runs, but the Final Four has no space this year for a Cinderella. I really like teams that can either shoot it or lock you down -- think Wofford, Kansas State and Buffalo -- but as a whole, the 1 and 2 lines are too strong to get us over the 11.5 mark.
[h=2]The double-digit seed you can make money on this tournament is ...?[/h]Kezirian: Florida is very dangerous as a 10-seed. I like the Gators in their opener with Nevada, which is battling injuries, and I'm just not sold on Michigan. The Wolverines are very well coached, but the Gators have demonstrated flashes that would suggest they're up for this challenge. A path exists for Florida to make a run.
Johnson: The three double-digit seeds I have most likely making a run to the Sweet 16 are Saint Mary's, Florida and Iowa. So in theory they would be the teams that could make us the most money if they come through.
Schultz: If you're looking for a big first-round upset, consider Old Dominion and New Mexico State; both teams guard you and control tempo. And don't forget about Ja Morant and Murray State against Markus Howard and slumping Marquette.
But the double-digit seed with the best chance to string together two, maybe even three wins? Try bubble-busting Saint Mary's. The Gaels execute in the half-court and have a terrific guard in junior first-team All-WCC performer Jordan Ford (21.3 PPG on 42.3 percent from 3). Randy Bennett's teams always defend, don't turn the ball over and control tempo with their sluggish pace. Keep in mind, too, that Saint Mary's just held Gonzaga -- the nation's top-scoring team at 88.8 PPG -- to just 47 points on miserable 37.5 percent shooting and under 12 percent from deep.
