2019 NCAA tournament: Best bets for every Round 2 game ?

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[h=1]2019 NCAA tournament: Best bets for every Round 2 game[/h]
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There are plenty of enticing matchups for the weekend, including Kentucky-Wofford and Michigan-Florida.


Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the weekend's second-round games.


If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every NCAA tournament game.


Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 22. All times Eastern.
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[h=2]South Region[/h]
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[h=3]No. 6 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (-4)[/h]Total: 137
BPI line: Purdue -3.5
Saturday at 8:40 p.m. in Hartford, Connecticut


Johnson: Seemingly everybody was quick to back an 18th-percentile Old Dominion offense (against a weak schedule) against Purdue because the Boilermakers "just aren't very good." I didn't understand this notion. The Boilermakers weren't great against ODU, but they still handled the game with relative ease. How about waiting to bet against Purdue with a team that is actually efficient at scoring the basketball (16th offensively) and is coached by one of the best in the world? Purdue's biggest weakness defensively is allowing 36.1 percent of its opponents' points to come from behind the 3-point line (ranks 301st). Villanova scored 42.7 percent of its points from long range, ranking ninth in the country. Jay Wright's adjustments defensively utilizing the Wildcats' 1-2-2 full-court press and 2-3 matchup zone will give this Purdue offense a wide variety of looks to deal with. I took Villanova +4.


Play: Villanova +4


Kezirian: As I have stated before, I think <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Purdue is extremely shaky. The Boilermakers finished as Big Ten regular-season co-champions, but I attribute that more to a fortunate conference schedule. Jay Wright lost his key players from last season's national championship roster, but I trust him in this spot as an underdog. Villanova is 5-0 ATS this season as a 'dog.

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ATS pick: Villanova +4


Schultz: Let's keep the undefeated Best Bet streak intact with the defending national champs. Undoubtedly, this line is flummoxing. Villanova, which won the Big East tournament, is peaking, thanks in large part to senior Phil Booth, whose offensive and defensive versatility will be a huge factor against the Boilers. Expect Booth to bother diminutive Purdue star Carsen Edwards, the leading scorer in the Big Ten at 23 points per game. The Fighting Jay Wrights are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 tournament games -- and are tied with Murray State for the best ATS clip (5-0) as an underdog this season. The Wildcats have a good chance to not only cover but win this game outright.


Pick: Villanova +4

[h=2]East Region[/h]
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[h=3]No. 6 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 3 LSU Tigers(-2.5)[/h]Total: 146
BPI line: LSU -1.1
Saturday at 12:10 p.m. in Jacksonville, Florida


Johnson: I don't show any value on either the side or with the total in this matchup. I anticipate the narrative will be that LSU would have lost Thursday to Yale if the Bulldogs didn't start 4-for-30 from long range and NBA prospect Miye Oni didn't shoot 2-for-16. It's true, too. But that doesn't mean you should rush to bet Maryland here. LSU shot only 23.5 percent on 17 3-point attempts, and the Tigers shot well below their season average at the free throw line. The spread is fair and it isn't worth forcing a position in this game.


Play: Pass


Kezirian: Kentucky and Tennessee get all the attention, but LSU won the SEC regular-season championship. The Tigers have some disarray with coach Will Wade not currently with the team. However, I think they just have too much talent here against a mediocre Maryland squad. The Terrapins have lost three of five and are just 1-4 ATS during that stretch.


ATS pick: LSU -2.5


Fortenbaugh: The downgrade at head coach from the suspended Will Wade to assistant Tony Benford for the Tigers still concerns me, but I loved the way LSU bounced back from a one-and-done performance in the SEC tournament to defeat Yale on Thursday. Maryland hung on for a two-point victory over Belmont in the opening round but has failed to cover the number in four of its past five games. Expect LSU to rebound from Thursday's pathetic 4-for-17 3-point performance.


ATS pick: LSU -2.5


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[h=3]No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (-10)[/h]Total: 142
BPI line: MSU -14
Saturday at 7:45 p.m. in Des Moines, Iowa


Johnson: Everything in me wants to lay the big number with the Spartans here. Minnesota scored only 16 points per game this season from behind the 3-point line, which ranked 341st in the country. Thursday, the Golden Gophers scored 33 points via 11 3-pointers against Louisville. That seems likely to regress Saturday. Michigan State slept through its opening game against Bradley, and we should expect a much better effort in the round of 32. The problem is that my projection is Michigan State -10.0 exactly. I will very rarely make a bet when my numbers don't agree, and discipline during March Madness seems to be as good a lesson as any here. I'm sure I will be kicking myself when Sparty wins by 20, but there isn't an edge here worth betting, so I will not be involved.


Pick: Pass

[h=2]Midwest Region[/h]
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[h=3]No. 7 Wofford Terriers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (-5)[/h]Total: 138.5
BPI line: Kentucky -4.4
Saturday at 2:40 p.m. in Jacksonville, Florida


Johnson: I jumped the gun making a small play on Abilene Christian +20.5 after the PJ Washington injury news for Kentucky. Washington has been ruled out Saturday, and Wofford is clearly a different beast. I'm still concerned about Kentucky's ability to score regularly enough without him, especially when the Terriers' strengths defensively are defending the post and isolation. The ultimate key for me is Kentucky's weak pick-and-roll defense going up against a Wofford team with Fletcher Magee that ranked in the 97th percentile offensively running pick-and-rolls. The Terriers' offense is deadly, and I don't think the Wildcats will be able to keep up without Washington on the floor. Give me Wofford +5.5 as well as a smaller play on the money line +205.


Play: Wofford +5.5, smaller play on +205


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[h=3]No. 5 Auburn Tigers (-2) vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks[/h]Total: 147.5
BPI line: Auburn -0.7
Saturday at 9:40 p.m. in Salt Lake City


Johnson: I'm already essentially on Auburn in this game with my futures bets for the Tigers to win it all and to win the Midwest Region. If you already have a similar type of play pending, then this is a stay-away. If you want a little action on the Tigers, then I think they match up fairly well with Kansas. The Jayhawks have struggled offensively since losing Lagerald Vick for the season, but I have praised Bill Self for the job he has done defensively with this squad (ranking 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency). Like many Auburn games, it certainly could come down to whether the Tigers are making their 3-pointers, but they have other advantages inside and defensively with their nation-leading turnover rate that I think will give a less-experienced Kansas team issues. The total is a little high, but I wouldn't jump in and play under unless it reached 148.5 or better.


Play: Pass


Fortenbaugh: Any other season and this point spread would look like a serious mistake on behalf of the sportsbook. But 2019 is different, and the Jayhawks appear more mortal than ever. An inconsistent Big 12 campaign ended in a 12-point loss to Iowa State in the conference tournament. Auburn survived a Thursday scare from New Mexico State and has found a way to emerge victorious in nine consecutive contests, thanks in large part to a high-flying attack that ranks eighth in the country in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric.


ATS pick: Auburn -2


Schultz: Auburn barely survived New Mexico State, but the Tigers actually match up better against KU. Why? Because the Jayhawks are not especially big, aside from Big 12 Newcomer of the Year Dedric Lawson. Nor are they especially talented sans Lagerald Vick. Auburn has a pair of terrific guards in Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, both of whom hover around 40 percent from deep. Chuma Okeke is another option for Bruce Pearl offensively and is a disruptive force defensively. The 6-foot-8, 230-pound sophomore has recorded 63 steals and 44 blocks in just 36 games. Maybe most important, KU is just 5-11 ATS in its past 16 games after a win, while the Tigers are 5-2 in their past seven ATS after a victory. War Eagle rolls in this second-round tilt.


Pick: Auburn -2

[h=2]West Region[/h]
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[h=3]No. 10 Florida Gators vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-7)[/h]Total: 121
BPI line: Michigan -7.6
Saturday at 5:15 p.m. in Des Moines, Iowa


Johnson: My projections for this game are Michigan -5.8 with a total of 122.3, so there isn't enough of a discrepancy to fire on anything in this game. Florida has the athletes and bigs inside to give Michigan issues in the post, but the Wolverines did a great job Thursday against Montana by forcing the ball out for jump shots and 3-pointers (the Grizzlies went 6-for-24). I envision more of the same game plan from John Beilein, seeing as Florida made only 33.3 percent of its 3s this season (ranking 225th). I would stay away.


Play: Pass



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[h=3]No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-5)[/h]Total: 144
BPI line: FSU -5.6
Saturday at 6:10 p.m. in Hartford, Connecticut


Johnson: This is my formal apology to the Morant family and Murray State fans everywhere. The Racers absolutely balled out on a historic level Thursday. Ja Morant is the first player with 15 points and 15 assists in a game since Earl Watson did it in 2000. Morant's 55 points created was the most by a player in the past 10 tournaments. How do we bet against this guy again? The next time I do will be when he's playing in the Association (all right, that could be a lie, but I won't be backing FSU here in the round of 32). My projection is Seminoles -6.1, but it's worth noting that senior Phil Cofer missed the opening-round game against Vermont due to a foot injury. Without Cofer, a 5-point spread is pretty fair.


Play: Pass


Kezirian: If there is still room, I am jumping on the Ja Morant bandwagon. I occasionally question the ability for mid-majors to hang with high-caliber players in top-notch conferences, but Morant is the real deal. His triple-double demonstrated an ability to do more than just score. Plus, the underdog is 16-4 ATS when Leonard Hamilton coaches an NCAA tournament game. Hamilton's teams are much better as an underdog (7-1 ATS) and weaker as a favorite (3-9 ATS).


ATS pick: Murray State +5


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[h=3]No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs(-13)[/h]Total: 148
BPI line: Gonzaga -17.5
Saturday at 7:10 p.m. in Salt Lake City


Johnson: I make Gonzaga a 14.6-point favorite in this game against the Bears. Baylor did work as we anticipated against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, but the reasoning behind our belief was data-driven. Baylor finished in the 20th percentile or worse offensively in the pick-and-roll, in isolation and off-ball against man-to-man defenses. The Bears were elite when facing zones. The Zags play strictly man-to-man. The Bulldogs also roster the best offense in the country this season and should pick Baylor apart, whether the Bears utilize man defense or zone defense themselves. The number is 1½ points short, and tactically the matchup favors Gonzaga big-time. I laid -13.


Play: Gonzaga -13


Kezirian: Baylor had a nice win over Syracuse, but this is an inconsistent team. The Bears even entered the Big Dance on a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Gonzaga is a legitimate national championship contender. Mark Few is loaded on offense and the Bulldogs should be just fine against Baylor's length.


ATS pick: Gonzaga -13
 

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