2019 NCAA tournament: Best bets for Friday's Sweet 16 games
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The favorites held their ground in the Round of 32, giving us some great matchups to look forward to.
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the Sweet 16.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every NCAA tournament game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 26. All times Eastern.
East Region
No. 3 LSU Tigers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (-6)
Total: 148.5
BPI line: Michigan State -9.1
Friday at 7:09 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
Johnson: I would ultimately need a +6.5 before I jumped in and backed the Tigers (I make the number +4.8), but the matchup is certainly intriguing for a few reasons. Michigan State beat up on the Big Ten with its athleticism and advantage there against the likes of Michigan, Purdue and the rest of its conference foes -- except the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is at least somewhat comparable in size and athleticism to LSU, and it gave the Spartans fits during the regular season, as the Hoosiers won both matchups outright as underdogs. I anticipate the Tigers will be able to have similar success inside on the offensive glass and get to the free throw line, and Sparty's depth concerns might finally become an issue.
LSU only lost one game all year by seven or more points, and that was in nonconference play to an Oklahoma State team that shot 59 percent from the field and 50 percent from the 3-point line. That is going to happen occasionally, but LSU battles and grinds and is a young team in an underdog role that I think suits the Tigers fairly well.
ATS pick: LSU +6 smaller edge, waiting to see if a +6.5 pops in the market
Fortenbaugh: Entering March Madness, the pressure was on for LSU following the program's impressive 26-5 regular season turned one-and-done SEC tournament performance courtesy of a three-point loss to the Florida Gators. But the Tigers acquitted themselves quite nicely throughout the opening weekend with victories over Yale and Maryland. LSU failed to cover the closing point spread in both contests, but now the pressure is off thanks to a Sweet 16 appearance combined with the team's first underdog casting since March 6. Look for LSU to play loose and relaxed in this change-of-pace role.
ATS pick: LSU +6
Kezirian: Among all legitimate contenders, Michigan State is the most inconsistent. Sparty can look fantastic with Cassius Winston running an offense that was second in the nation with 19.1 assists per game, but the Spartans can also look inexplicably disjointed -- and that makes me feel they are vulnerable against an athletic team like LSU. The Tigers have a tendency to play tight as a favorite but very loose when the expectations are lower (7-1 ATS this season as an underdog). Tom Izzo gives Sparty a huge coaching edge, but I'll take the points.
ATS pick: LSU +6
No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)
Total: 144.5
BPI line: Duke -6.4
Friday at 9:39 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
Johnson: A plethora of events all had to line up perfectly down the stretch in Duke's game against UCF that allowed the Blue Devils to advance. Duke is certainly fortunate to be in the Sweet 16. UCF shot well above its season average from long range and from the free throw line and a general expected points outcome I put together for each game based on shot distribution actually made this game 74.51 to 65.83 in favor of Duke. So, based on the events of the closing minutes leading up to Duke's unlikely win, the Blue Devils certainly appeared to be lucky. However, they were also fairly unlucky overall throughout the game based on UCF's shooting performance versus expectation. I was hoping we would get an overreaction in the market on a team seemingly everybody can't wait to fade by backing the Hokies here, but it lines up closely enough with where my projection is for the game at Duke -8.2. Virginia Tech certainly has the ability to duplicate UCF's shooting performance, but it isn't anything I am willing to bet on or bet against at the current number.
Pick: Pass
Fortenbaugh: Zion Williamson and the Blue Devils are currently experiencing what I refer to as, "The Tiger Woods Effect." Woods hasn't won a major since 2008, yet consistently finds himself on the board with short odds to win because bookmakers know they're going to experience an influx of money on the most popular golfer of all time. If they priced Woods according to his true odds -- maybe 30-1 instead of 15-1 -- a Tiger victory would create extraordinary liability for the house.
The same holds true for the Zion-led Blue Devils, who are the most popular college hoops team of the last decade ... if not longer. The books know that Duke money will pour in from the public, so they can add an extra point or two to the spread and get away with it. In my opinion, this creates value on Virginia Tech. Case in point: In five games since Williamson returned from a knee injury, the Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech +7.5
Kezirian: Duke somehow escaped the round of 32, but the vulnerability is apparent to all teams, especially a Virginia Tech squad that already beat them (albeit without Zion Williamson). I expect the Hokies to adopt a similar game plan that UCF used, relying on 6-foot-10 Kerry Blackshear Jr. to protect the paint. Buzz Williams will force Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire to hit multiple outside shots. I also believe the Hokies want to avoid a track meet, forcing Duke to beat them in the half-court set.
ATS pick: under 144.5
Midwest Region
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-5)
Total: 164
BPI line: UNC -4.8
Friday at 7:29 p.m. in Kansas City, Missouri
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The favorites held their ground in the Round of 32, giving us some great matchups to look forward to.
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the Sweet 16.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every NCAA tournament game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 26. All times Eastern.
East Region
No. 3 LSU Tigers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans (-6)
Total: 148.5
BPI line: Michigan State -9.1
Friday at 7:09 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
Johnson: I would ultimately need a +6.5 before I jumped in and backed the Tigers (I make the number +4.8), but the matchup is certainly intriguing for a few reasons. Michigan State beat up on the Big Ten with its athleticism and advantage there against the likes of Michigan, Purdue and the rest of its conference foes -- except the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana is at least somewhat comparable in size and athleticism to LSU, and it gave the Spartans fits during the regular season, as the Hoosiers won both matchups outright as underdogs. I anticipate the Tigers will be able to have similar success inside on the offensive glass and get to the free throw line, and Sparty's depth concerns might finally become an issue.
LSU only lost one game all year by seven or more points, and that was in nonconference play to an Oklahoma State team that shot 59 percent from the field and 50 percent from the 3-point line. That is going to happen occasionally, but LSU battles and grinds and is a young team in an underdog role that I think suits the Tigers fairly well.
ATS pick: LSU +6 smaller edge, waiting to see if a +6.5 pops in the market
Fortenbaugh: Entering March Madness, the pressure was on for LSU following the program's impressive 26-5 regular season turned one-and-done SEC tournament performance courtesy of a three-point loss to the Florida Gators. But the Tigers acquitted themselves quite nicely throughout the opening weekend with victories over Yale and Maryland. LSU failed to cover the closing point spread in both contests, but now the pressure is off thanks to a Sweet 16 appearance combined with the team's first underdog casting since March 6. Look for LSU to play loose and relaxed in this change-of-pace role.
ATS pick: LSU +6
Kezirian: Among all legitimate contenders, Michigan State is the most inconsistent. Sparty can look fantastic with Cassius Winston running an offense that was second in the nation with 19.1 assists per game, but the Spartans can also look inexplicably disjointed -- and that makes me feel they are vulnerable against an athletic team like LSU. The Tigers have a tendency to play tight as a favorite but very loose when the expectations are lower (7-1 ATS this season as an underdog). Tom Izzo gives Sparty a huge coaching edge, but I'll take the points.
ATS pick: LSU +6
No. 4 Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (-7.5)
Total: 144.5
BPI line: Duke -6.4
Friday at 9:39 p.m. in Washington, D.C.
Johnson: A plethora of events all had to line up perfectly down the stretch in Duke's game against UCF that allowed the Blue Devils to advance. Duke is certainly fortunate to be in the Sweet 16. UCF shot well above its season average from long range and from the free throw line and a general expected points outcome I put together for each game based on shot distribution actually made this game 74.51 to 65.83 in favor of Duke. So, based on the events of the closing minutes leading up to Duke's unlikely win, the Blue Devils certainly appeared to be lucky. However, they were also fairly unlucky overall throughout the game based on UCF's shooting performance versus expectation. I was hoping we would get an overreaction in the market on a team seemingly everybody can't wait to fade by backing the Hokies here, but it lines up closely enough with where my projection is for the game at Duke -8.2. Virginia Tech certainly has the ability to duplicate UCF's shooting performance, but it isn't anything I am willing to bet on or bet against at the current number.
Pick: Pass
Fortenbaugh: Zion Williamson and the Blue Devils are currently experiencing what I refer to as, "The Tiger Woods Effect." Woods hasn't won a major since 2008, yet consistently finds himself on the board with short odds to win because bookmakers know they're going to experience an influx of money on the most popular golfer of all time. If they priced Woods according to his true odds -- maybe 30-1 instead of 15-1 -- a Tiger victory would create extraordinary liability for the house.
The same holds true for the Zion-led Blue Devils, who are the most popular college hoops team of the last decade ... if not longer. The books know that Duke money will pour in from the public, so they can add an extra point or two to the spread and get away with it. In my opinion, this creates value on Virginia Tech. Case in point: In five games since Williamson returned from a knee injury, the Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS.
ATS pick: Virginia Tech +7.5
Kezirian: Duke somehow escaped the round of 32, but the vulnerability is apparent to all teams, especially a Virginia Tech squad that already beat them (albeit without Zion Williamson). I expect the Hokies to adopt a similar game plan that UCF used, relying on 6-foot-10 Kerry Blackshear Jr. to protect the paint. Buzz Williams will force Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire to hit multiple outside shots. I also believe the Hokies want to avoid a track meet, forcing Duke to beat them in the half-court set.
ATS pick: under 144.5
Midwest Region
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-5)
Total: 164
BPI line: UNC -4.8
Friday at 7:29 p.m. in Kansas City, Missouri
