2019 NCAA tournament: Best bets for every Elite Eight game
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The Elite Eight is set, and while North Carolina was eliminated Friday, Duke barely survived. It sets us up for an exciting weekend.
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the Elite Eight of the men's NCAA tournament.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every NCAA tournament game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of March 26. All times Eastern.
West Region
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4)
Total: 137
BPI line: Gonzaga -6.7
Saturday at 6:09 p.m. in Anaheim, California
Johnson: My number for this game is Gonzaga -5.2, but I'm not surprised to see the market a little lower after Texas Tech dominated Michigan. It's also probably safe to anticipate we see money on the underdog after the majority of bettors were jumping to take the points with the Seminoles. For someone who was quick to grab the under in Texas Tech-Michigan, I think 137 in this matchup is three points too low. The Bulldogs' offense is a different beast (the best in adjusted offensive efficiency this season), and they play at a much quicker pace (79th fastest, compared to Michigan at 341). The Zags will shoot better than 1-for-19 from long range, and they have better individual weapons than Michigan does on offense. The Red Raiders have been playing on another level offensively for the past two months and rank third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency over that time. This is a play to the over for me at 137 or better.
Play: Over 137
Fortenbaugh: I've been unsuccessfully fading Gonzaga since the beginning of the tournament, so why stop now? This matchup right here is what sports is all about: The top-ranked program in adjusted offensive efficiency (Gonzaga) taking on the top-ranked program in adjusted defensive efficiency (Texas Tech). I don't see the Bulldogs solving Chris Beard's defense with less than 48 hours to prepare.
ATS pick: Texas Tech +4
South Region
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-4.5)
Total: 126
BPI line: Virginia -6.2
Saturday at 8:49 p.m. in Louisville, Kentucky
Johnson: My projections for this matchup are Virginia -5.1 with a total of 127.1, so there isn't value to be had in the current market. The Boilermakers' ability to knock down 3-pointers in their past two games -- with Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline just going absolutely bonkers -- earned them a trip to the Elite Eight. But they did need some good fortune at the end of regulation against the Vols to force overtime, despite Cline's barrage of 3s. However you want to look at it, they are going to be tested against a Virginia defense that let opponents make only 28.1 percent of their attempts from long range this season (second best in the country). I would have to consider the Cavaliers if this number gets down to -4, with it being over one point lower than my number and the fact that Purdue should struggle to shoot like they did in the last two games from the 3-point line. In comparison, Kyle Guy shot 2-for-21 from deep in Virginia's past two games, and the Cavaliers won both games anyway. Maybe we see some regression from Purdue, maybe not. But at the very least, Virginia's shooting can be expected to improve.
Pick: Pass, buy on UVA at -4 or better
Schultz: Points will be at a premium in this slugfest. Virginia's pack-line defensive identity is predicted off its ability to coerce opponents into tough shots and live ball turnovers -- the reason it ranks third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. To be sure, the Boilers have been a highly efficient offensive machine, most notably in their impressive 99-94 OT win over Tennessee. While there is a valid concern that both teams will get hot from deep -- Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline (7-10 3s vs. the Vols) for Purdue and Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy for the Hoos -- both coaches will be honed in on limiting the drive-and-kick. Expect a half-court game with limited possessions, as well as a limited dose of clean looks. In other words, a replay of Virginia's 53-49 Sweet 16 win over a potent Oregon offense in which the Ducks shot just 37.8 percent with 11 turnovers and eight assists. Bottom line: Both offenses will be stifled under the immense pressure of playing for the Final Four.
Pick: Under 126
Fortenbaugh: Already recognized for its defensive prowess entering postseason play (third in adjusted defensive efficiency), Virginia took it to another level once conference tournament time commenced. The Cavaliers have surrendered an average of just 56.2 points per game over their past five outings, translating into four unders. Oh, and let's not forget the fact that Virginia ranks dead last in adjusted tempo, while Purdue ranks 263rd.
Pick: Under 126
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The Elite Eight is set, and while North Carolina was eliminated Friday, Duke barely survived. It sets us up for an exciting weekend.
Our college basketball experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the Elite Eight of the men's NCAA tournament.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections for every NCAA tournament game.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of March 26. All times Eastern.
West Region
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4)
Total: 137
BPI line: Gonzaga -6.7
Saturday at 6:09 p.m. in Anaheim, California
Johnson: My number for this game is Gonzaga -5.2, but I'm not surprised to see the market a little lower after Texas Tech dominated Michigan. It's also probably safe to anticipate we see money on the underdog after the majority of bettors were jumping to take the points with the Seminoles. For someone who was quick to grab the under in Texas Tech-Michigan, I think 137 in this matchup is three points too low. The Bulldogs' offense is a different beast (the best in adjusted offensive efficiency this season), and they play at a much quicker pace (79th fastest, compared to Michigan at 341). The Zags will shoot better than 1-for-19 from long range, and they have better individual weapons than Michigan does on offense. The Red Raiders have been playing on another level offensively for the past two months and rank third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency over that time. This is a play to the over for me at 137 or better.
Play: Over 137
Fortenbaugh: I've been unsuccessfully fading Gonzaga since the beginning of the tournament, so why stop now? This matchup right here is what sports is all about: The top-ranked program in adjusted offensive efficiency (Gonzaga) taking on the top-ranked program in adjusted defensive efficiency (Texas Tech). I don't see the Bulldogs solving Chris Beard's defense with less than 48 hours to prepare.
ATS pick: Texas Tech +4
South Region
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-4.5)
Total: 126
BPI line: Virginia -6.2
Saturday at 8:49 p.m. in Louisville, Kentucky
Johnson: My projections for this matchup are Virginia -5.1 with a total of 127.1, so there isn't value to be had in the current market. The Boilermakers' ability to knock down 3-pointers in their past two games -- with Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline just going absolutely bonkers -- earned them a trip to the Elite Eight. But they did need some good fortune at the end of regulation against the Vols to force overtime, despite Cline's barrage of 3s. However you want to look at it, they are going to be tested against a Virginia defense that let opponents make only 28.1 percent of their attempts from long range this season (second best in the country). I would have to consider the Cavaliers if this number gets down to -4, with it being over one point lower than my number and the fact that Purdue should struggle to shoot like they did in the last two games from the 3-point line. In comparison, Kyle Guy shot 2-for-21 from deep in Virginia's past two games, and the Cavaliers won both games anyway. Maybe we see some regression from Purdue, maybe not. But at the very least, Virginia's shooting can be expected to improve.
Pick: Pass, buy on UVA at -4 or better
Schultz: Points will be at a premium in this slugfest. Virginia's pack-line defensive identity is predicted off its ability to coerce opponents into tough shots and live ball turnovers -- the reason it ranks third nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. To be sure, the Boilers have been a highly efficient offensive machine, most notably in their impressive 99-94 OT win over Tennessee. While there is a valid concern that both teams will get hot from deep -- Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline (7-10 3s vs. the Vols) for Purdue and Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy for the Hoos -- both coaches will be honed in on limiting the drive-and-kick. Expect a half-court game with limited possessions, as well as a limited dose of clean looks. In other words, a replay of Virginia's 53-49 Sweet 16 win over a potent Oregon offense in which the Ducks shot just 37.8 percent with 11 turnovers and eight assists. Bottom line: Both offenses will be stifled under the immense pressure of playing for the Final Four.
Pick: Under 126
Fortenbaugh: Already recognized for its defensive prowess entering postseason play (third in adjusted defensive efficiency), Virginia took it to another level once conference tournament time commenced. The Cavaliers have surrendered an average of just 56.2 points per game over their past five outings, translating into four unders. Oh, and let's not forget the fact that Virginia ranks dead last in adjusted tempo, while Purdue ranks 263rd.
Pick: Under 126
