jcubs55's 2019 MLB Thread

jcubs55 · Mar 30, 2019

As some of you guys may recall I've had threads in the past that consisted primarily of plays involving the Cubs and they've always done quite well. I thought about linking some of the good memories here but those are now in the past and the focus is on this season. I haven't kept a thread going the last couple years, but seeing some fellow posters that I respect contributing has motivated me to do the same.

This thread will be a bit different than previous ones in that I won't be restricting myself within any predetermined set of parameters. In 2016 I posted plays only involving the Cubs, and I never faded them. This year I'll post anything that I believe holds value on any game across the league, and I will fade the Cubs in spots that I believe to be +EV. The 2016 season was fun and memorable, but since then I've shifted to viewing sports more as an investment opportunity than entertainment. Being a "fan" is no longer my first priority.

I have no season-long props pending on the Cubs as a team such as SWT, Division, NL, or WS. I think that this team has a wide range of possible outcomes due to many variables, and I wasn't comfortable trying to account for them all over the course of an entire season. Rather, I'll look to approach this season on a game by game basis and adjust accordingly as new information becomes available.

Good luck to everyone this season :toast:

jcubs55 · Mar 30, 2019

Today presents the first opportunity to back Yu Darvish, who I believe has a chance to put together one of the best comeback seasons of any player in MLB. He is finally healthy and his stuff has shown up this spring. He is one of only two Cubs starting pitchers that I'll be aggressively looking to back as the season begins; Kyle Hendricks being the other. I'll be in "wait and see" mode with Hamels (can he match his late-season performance sparked by last year's change of scenery?) and Quintana (did an audit of his mechanics help him find his command this offseason?), while Lester seems like a fade candidate.

3/30:

Chicago Cubs -1 (-119.9) risking 0.5995 Units to win 0.5 units
Texas Rangers Team Total Under 3.5 +121 risking 0.25 Units to win 0.3025 Units
Chicago Cubs 1st 5 Innings ML -141 risking 0.3525 Units to win 0.25 Units

Kevy · Mar 30, 2019

John doing write-ups

Brother good luck this Season.

jcubs55 · Mar 30, 2019

Kevy said:
John doing write-ups

Brother good luck this Season.

Thanks Kevy

jcubs55 · Mar 30, 2019

Adding:

Kris Bryant Total Bases -130 vs Nomar Mazara risking 0.65u to win 0.5u

brewerfan003 · Mar 30, 2019

Good luck this year John

BIlls68 · Mar 30, 2019

Really?

jcubs55 · Mar 31, 2019

jcubs55 said:
3/30:

Chicago Cubs -1 (-119.9) risking 0.5995 Units to win 0.5 units
Texas Rangers Team Total Under 3.5 +121 risking 0.25 Units to win 0.3025 Units
Chicago Cubs 1st 5 Innings ML -141 risking 0.3525 Units to win 0.25 Units

jcubs55 said:
Adding:

Kris Bryant Total Bases -130 vs Nomar Mazara risking 0.65u to win 0.5u

3/30 Results:

2-2 -0.0995u

YTD:

2-2 -0.0995u

jcubs55 · Mar 31, 2019

brewerfan003 said:
Good luck this year John

Thanks, Brock. Best of luck to you as well!

jcubs55 · Apr 4, 2019

4/4:

Chicago Cubs FF ML +108 risking 0.3u to win 0.324u
Chicago Cubs ML +106 risking 0.3u to win 0.318u
Atlanta Braves TTU 4.5 -131 risking 0.393u to win 0.3u

Yu Darvish was wild in his first start, but afterwards he said they (him and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy) identified a mechanical flaw watching the tape and he hopes to correct it with an adjustment moving forward. He was pitching against his former team with relatives and friends attending his last start, and we know from his past he might not be the strongest mentally. The hope is that he's able to focus in a more relaxed setting in Atlanta where he has had some success before.

Max Fried has potential, but in a limited sample size in MLB thus far he has struggled with walks and his peripherals are a full run higher than his surface stats. Even though the Cubs seem to be pressing right now, they do have patient hitters that can take advantage of a starter that lacks control, or at the very least work deep counts and get to the middle of the bullpen early.

indiana · Apr 4, 2019

JC/55...........BOL with your action today buddy........indy

jcubs55 · Apr 5, 2019

indiana said:
JC/55...........BOL with your action today buddy........indy

Thank you for the kind words, indy!

jcubs55 · Apr 5, 2019

4/4 Results:

0-3 -0.993u

YTD:

2-5 -1.0925u

I knew early on these were likely doomed when Fried was painting from the start. Darvish still hasn't settled in, so I'll have to wait on him rather than continuing to attempt to catch the falling knife.

jcubs55 · Apr 5, 2019

4/5:

Oakland/Houston Under 8.5 -113 risking 0.339u to win 0.3u
Oakland TT Under 3.5 -110 risking 0.33u to win 0.3u

spiderwebb1983 · Apr 5, 2019

Good luck tonight jcubs

jcubs55 · Apr 5, 2019

Live Bet Astros TTO 4.5 +110 0.3u to win 0.33u

jcubs55 · Apr 6, 2019

4/5 Results:

2-1 +0.3u

YTD:

4-6 -0.7925u

jcubs55 · Apr 7, 2019

4/7:

Minnesota/Philadelphia Under 8.5 +100 risking 0.4u to win 0.4u
Philadelphia TT Under 4.5 -125 risking 0.5u to win 0.4u

jcubs55 · Apr 7, 2019

4/7 Results:

2-0 +0.8u

YTD:

6-6 +0.0075u

jcubs55 · Apr 9, 2019

4/9:

Toronto/Boston Under 8 -108 risking 0.432u to win 0.4u
Boston TT Under 4.5 -102 risking 0.412u to win 0.4u

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