Season Wins NYR Over 75.5 - Looking for hedge advice!

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

Got NYR over 75.5 points for the season, 360/300. They have 75 points and 2 games left. Today they're -250 against Columbus, tomorrow -295 against Pitt. I'm thinking of putting 150 on Columbus ML, then if it hits, roll it onto Pitt tomorrow. Thoughts??

I already hit NYI for 300/315, so the goal is to minimize the hit I take on NYR (if they lose out) and keep my season bets in the black.

Thanks and curious to hear your thoughts!

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

Think I have my answer - hedge it is!

Without Hedge
Scenario	NYI Pays	NYR Pays	Side Bet Pays	Total
NYR L/L	$315	($360)	n/a	($45)
NYR W/L	$315	$300	n/a	$615
NYR W/W	$315	$300	n/a	$615
NYR L/W	$315	$300	n/a	$615
					Bet	Bet
With Hedge					$150 ML	$150 ML
Scenario	NYI Pays	NYR Pays	Side Bet Pays	Total	Columbus	Pitt
NYR L/L	$315	($360)	$300	$255	$150	$150
NYR W/L	$315	$300	($350)	$265	($350)
NYR W/W	$315	$300	($350)	$265	($350)
NYR L/W	$315	$300	($285)	$330	$150	($435)

brendanjack · Apr 5, 2019

There +250 vs Columbus so laying 150 on Columbus will pay you roughly 50-60 at -260

brendanjack · Apr 5, 2019

Sorry man I’m having a hard time understanding your hedge

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

All good - appreciate the response! I'm risking 350 to pay 150. The ML bets are to win, not risking. I should have clarified.

In hindsight, NYR up 1-0, maybe should have just let it play out!

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

Not to mention, I never factored in an overtime NYR loss tonight, which would put me at max payout. Too soon to go there I think.

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

YES - NYR tie with 7 seconds, now we just need an OT loss! Talk about a confused fan... Wait, that's gambling.

brendanjack · Apr 5, 2019

401k Hedge said:
YES - NYR tie with 7 seconds, now we just need an OT loss! Talk about a confused fan... Wait, that's gambling.

That’s a ranger fan lol

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

Damn - shootout. Alternate scenario looks as such:

					Bet	Bet
With Hedge					$150 ML	$175 ML
Scenario	NYI Pays	NYR Pays	Side Bet Pays	Total	Colombus	Pitt
NYR L SHOOTOUT/W	$315	$300	$150	$765	$150

401kHedge · Apr 5, 2019

Actually I loved the Islanders when they were at the Coliseum, particularly 20 years ago or so. I'm from NY, but NYR and NYY fans piss me off, so I lean Mets and Isles.

But at the end of the day, I'm a gambler.

AND THAT'S A WIN! Sorry I couldn't share that one, just a crazy scenario I thought some might find interesting.

GL

brendanjack · Apr 5, 2019

Glad you cashed I’m an islander fan hope they got a run in them however they really peaked early mid season hopefully they can find a way to stay competive in the playoffs. Good luck