Sunday Service Play Thread 4/7/2019

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TONY FINN AL GAME OF THE WEEK (11-1)

Game: (917) Kansas City Royals at (918) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Apr 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9 (+106)

View Analysis

PLAY: Total Under 9 runs (good to 8)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Keller and Ross

(917) Kansas City Royals at (918) Detroit Tigers

Brad Keller was the Opening Day starter for the Royals coming off a 3.03 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 140.1 IP last season. His underlying peripherals (17% K, 9% SwStr) point to regression for the 2019 campaign but not against the current Detroit lineup nor with Bill Miller scheduled to be positioned behind home plate calling balls and strikes. Also, Comerica Park conditions for Sunday are temps in the high 50's at first pitch with a 10 mph wind blowing in from center field.

First, Keller doesn't miss a large number of bats nor does he have elite command so depending on the right-hander to dominate a good Major League line is asking more than one should. That said his asset is missing the middle of the plate and throwing a heavy ball, e.g. inducing weak contact (54% GB) and keep the ball in the park (0.45 HR/9).

His two pitch arsenal is a perfect fit for Bill Miller's large strike zone. There isn't an active umpire in the league that has a large K-zone than that of Miller and in his first two starts behind home plate this season the totals in the pair were 7 an 8.5 with both contests coming in under the total. His 3.60 K/BB ratio across his first two games isn't sustainable but mark it down. If Keller and Ross are close to home plate Miller will call it a strike.

Furthermore, big league hitters are quite familiar with Miller and know the size of his zone. Veteran players have a tendency to attack pitches outside of the zone when Miller is behind the plate for the simple reason they know they have to go the plate swinging when the vet ump is wearing the vest.

Keller shutdown the Chicago White Sox on two hits through seven scoreless frames in his last start.

Ross has a history of keeping the ball in the park in his career. He was, however, victim to the long ball in his last starts allowing a pair of homers among his four hits over five innings in a 3-1 loss at Yankee Stadium.

The Tigers have Monday off so will not hesitate to use the bullpen arms they used on Saturday for a second straight day, including closer Greene. And it is a getaway day for the umpires and they simply do not like to miss their flight home before a day off.

The conditions at Comerica Park are pitcher-friendly, as is the home plate umpire, and both pitchers are in line to toss 6-plus innings of solid work on Sunday afternoon in the Motor City.

UNDER the TOTAL of 9

baseball33

Los Angeles Angels - Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers +1

Ben Burns

3*
Portland -2.5

Stephen Nover

2*
St.louis / San Diego over 8.5


3*GOY
Portland-2.5

2*
Portland / Denver under 217.5

Spartan

3*GOM
San Diego +110

Goodfella

3*GOY
Portland -2

Stephen Oh My Gosh

OVER 217.5 DENVER @ PORTLAND | 4/07 | 9:00 PM EDT


9:24 PM
This total is woefully low. These two teams met on Friday night in Denver, with the Nuggets winning 119-110. The totals of the three games between these teams this season have been 225, 229 and 229, all easily cashing the Over. My model has this game finishing with 228 points. Jump on the Over.

88-70 IN LAST 158 NBA PICKS | +1153
4-2 IN LAST 6 DEN O/U PICKS | +177


ORLANDO +5


ORLANDO @ BOSTON | 4/07 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:11 PM
It's this simple: with a win against the Celtics, the Magic will clinch their first playoff berth in seven seasons. With a loss, Orlando's postseason hopes could be in jeopardy; the Magic are in a dogfight for one of the last three playoff spots in the East. Also, Orlando has won both games against the Celtics this season, including a 93-90 win in Boston.

88-70 IN LAST 158 NBA PICKS | +1153
2-1 IN LAST 3 ORL ATS PICKS | +100

Portland is now 7.5........ can’t believe their still selling this

Cbass1533 said:

Portland is now 7.5........ can’t believe their still selling this

Click to expand...

it opened at -2, -2.5.... when it jumped to -7.5 both goodfella and Nover took the play down from selling it over an hour ago.

Bryan Leanard 4-7-19

MLB

4% San Diego
4% Arizona

MLB(Bob Balfe)
1:05 PM EST
Rotation #925-926
Twins/Phillies Over 8.5 runs
Berrios/Eflin

Primetime Sports Picks For 04/07/19

4 Unit --> St. Louis (Wainwright) -120 over San Diego (Strahm)

3 Unit --> L.A. Dodgers (Urias) -140 over Colorado (Bettis)

3 Unit --> Denver/Portland OVER 217.5 (NBA)

Allan Desrosiers

10 brewers
7 reds
7 nats

The Spot Player MLB

1* STL -119

11th Hour Sports

11th: MLB, 8u: 914 BAL+165. BAL O 9. 902 NYM+125. 915 TOR+135. 917 KC+100 1st 5. KC+100gm. 903 MIA+150. 907 CUB+105. 921 SEA+100.

Anyone have Essler? Thanks in advance

Greg Shaker
3* Denver/ Portland over 217

King Creole
3* Houston / Phoenix under 225

Worlds Worst Picker

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