One of the baseball betting angles that losing bettors like to use is to play on home teams “not to get swept” in a three or four-game series. Today, for instance, the Cardinals would be a play based on that angle after losing the first two games of this series. It’s such a foolish and lame angle that has destroyed many bankrolls. Each game is independent of itself, much like a coin toss. If the Cardinals do win today, it sure as hell won’t be because they lost the first two games of this series.
Matt Strahm (LHP) took the loss against the Diamondbacks on Monday, yielding five earned runs on eight hits over just 2.2 innings, striking out two and walking three as the Padres fell 10-3. Strahm has little market appeal after that awful outing and he also has just nine games started over his career but he did have a mini-breakout last year with a 2.05 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 69 K’s over in 61 innings. While most of that work came in relief, Strahm has the goods to succeed in either role and he carries some intriguing skill trends. Check out his first-pitch strike rate over the past three seasons: 53%, 59%, 66%. There are other things to like too including solid velocity and his strikeout ability from the left side. Strahm’s skills improved with more work last year and we’re willing to get behind him here for two reasons. First, the Padres look great in the early going. Secondly, this one is more of a fade on the Cardinals weak starter.
Adam Wainwright is an old 37-years-of age. He has a lot of miles and wear and tear on that right arm of his. He threw just 40 innings last year for the Cards and posted a irrelevant 4.46 ERA. Elbow issues that ended his 2017 campaign never left. He was first shelved in April of last year and again in May for three months. In his first start this year, Wainwright allowed four runs on four hits and four walks with three strikeouts across four innings in a no-decision against the Pirates. The Pirates are not going to make many pitchers look that bad this year but they sure as heck made Wainwright look bad. For a long time, Wainwright was a workhorse with top-notch skills, but both his health and stuff have been declining. Most signs point to continued ineffectiveness, as LHB continue to hit him hard, his walks are up, and the swing and miss rate on his once feared curve has dropped in three consecutive seasons. Wainwright’s WHIP in 2017 was 1.50. His WHIP last year was the same. His xERA in his first start this year was 6.69 with a WHIP of 2.00. Wainwright is not long for the Cardinals rotation and he’s highly unlikely to provide anything but a loss on one’s investment. Fade when favored and don’t be concerned with the opposing pitcher.
