April 9-14 Bases

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mrpickem

mrpickem

Member
Joined
May 19, 2009
Messages
1,484
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[4-1 +2.5u] :thumbsup:
2-1 Yesterday

  • 903 Washington Nationals +128
  • 912 Detroit Tigers +134
  • 919 New York Yankees +180
  • 921 Seattle Mariners -110
  • 905 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -102
  • 914 Boston Red Sox -1½ -115
  • 924 New York Mets -1½ +100

random sheeit


best bets 2019 best fades 2019 Best 2018-19 in Mar-Apr Best fades ’18-’19 Mar-Apr
m's 9-2 +8.6u
det 7-3 +6.2
mil 8-2 +5.8
lad 8-2 +4.4
o's 4-5 +4.1		 bos 3-8 +7.5u
cin 1-8 +7.2
Jays 3-8 +6.8
cubs 2-7 +5.4
nyy 5-4 +4.5
col 3-7 +4.3		 sea 26-13 +16.3u
az 25-13 +14.5
nym 23-12 +11.6
atl 22-15 +9
mil 25-16 +8.6
phi 23-14 +6.9
pit 22-16 +5.3		 cin 8-30 +20.1u
kc 9-28 +18

chw 11-24 +9.3
lad 20-19 +9.2
was 17-21 +8
Best home ‘18-‘19
phi 55-33 +14.9u
bos 57-24 +14.5		 Best home fade ‘18-‘19
bal 29-55 +21u
hou 50-35 +15.8

chw 31-54 +16.2
nym 38-46 +11.6
kc 34-53 +9.8
 Best away ‘18-‘19
oak 47-38 +15.4u
atl 48-37 +17.1
sea 49-38 +16.2
mil 48-38 +11.4		 Best away fade ‘18-‘19
Min 32-54 +15.4
Cle 43-41 +11.2
VS lefties 2018-2019
tb 29-20 +11.6u

tor 16-38 -20.5
sd 23-36 -7.5		 today’s starters
last 2 years MAR-APR
gonzales 7-2 +6u
Zimmerman 8-5 +5.1

urena 0-8 -8
Strasburg 6-7 -4.5		 today’s starters L365
nola 23-10 +11.5u
marquiz 20-14 +6.2
cole 23-11 +5.7
Castillo 17-14 +4.6



degrom 14-17 -7.8
morton 17-14 -5.4
 Of note L365:
Overs
Kluber 20-9-1

unders
degrom 22-9-1
nola 21-9-3
holland 19-9-2

RL
nola 20-13 +9.1u
holland 15-15 +9.1
zimmerman 17-8 +8.8
urena 20-10 +7.7

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mrpickem

mrpickem

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Joined
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Messages
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[7-5 +1.39u]
3-4 Yesterday

  • 951 Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies Under 11 +100
  • 952 Colorado Rockies +106
  • 957 Washington Nationals +143
  • 959 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 -105
  • 961 Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Under 7 +100
  • 963 Cleveland Indians -1½ +125
  • 976 Arizona Diamondbacks -138
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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May 19, 2009
Messages
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[8-8 -0.18u]
1-3-3 Yesterday

  • 902 Cincinnati Reds -156
  • 903 Los Angeles Dodgers/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ +100
  • 904 St. Louis Cardinals +1½ -135
  • 911 Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -115
  • 913 Oakland Athletics -146
  • 917 Seattle Mariners -134

Hate laying 156 with Reds, but fish are terrible and a solid trend says bad teams (<40% wins) after 2 or more straight wins is very profitable with huge sample. It is even stronger after the all star break but still strong season long

streak > 1 and WP < 40 and season > 2007
SU:331-341 (-0.13, 49.3%) avg line: 129.9 / -143.5 on / against: +$7,518 / -$11,282 ROI: +10.5% / -11.4%
RL:372-295 (0.64, 55.8%) avg line: -112.9 / -101.2 on / against: +$4,957 / -$8,611 ROI: +5.7% / -10.6%
OU:329-307-34 (0.47, 51.7%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: -$363 / -$5,153 ROI: -0.5% / -7.0%

<tbody>
</tbody>
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team4.392.867.778.851.970.972.441.103.4813.966.790.893.034.05
Opp4.523.156.968.841.921.042.461.143.7814.226.940.912.993.95

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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gonna follow the money


  • 907 Pittsburgh Pirates/Chicago Cubs Under 9 -113

be341f97-274e-416e-8d43-9a085075c35b.png
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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Messages
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[14-9 +3.38u]
6-1 Yesterday
cheersgif


  • 953 Philadelphia Phillies -155
  • 959 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 8 -115
  • 959 Milwaukee Brewers +133
  • 964 New York Yankees -215
  • 965 Tampa Bay Rays -135
  • 969 Oakland Athletics -113
  • 977 Los Angeles Angels +137

Favs of 150 or more on Friday after a loss over last 3+ years wins 72% for 12.5%ROI (23-3 L25)

season > 2015 and line <= -150 and day = Friday and p:L
SU:163-63 (1.49, 72.1%) avg line: -186.7 / 171.9 on / against: +$5,260 / -$6,067 ROI: +12.5% / -26.8%
RL:107-118 (-0.01, 47.6%) avg line: 106.7 / -122.8 on / against: -$676 / -$1,013 ROI: -2.8% / -3.6%
OU:112-103-10 (0.66, 52.1%) avg total: 8.4 over / under: +$23 / -$1,859 ROI: +0.1% / -7.5%

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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Messages
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[19-11 +6.09u]
5-2 Yesterday

  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 9 +104
  • 903 Colorado Rockies/San Francisco Giants Under 7 -107
  • 905 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +110
  • 918 Boston Red Sox -1½ -135
  • 921 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -115
  • 925 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Under 10½ -105
  • 927 Houston Astros -1½ -115
3ceb2058-1a6f-4ddd-bda3-90c85efc9dc1.png
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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another angle for stros and rays
road favs of 160 or more on saturdays over last 2+ years


c116959b-6ae5-4d7b-8032-925c380fcb1d.png
 

TimmyRules

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Question mrpickem...could you easily run a report on how favs did last year?

and then of the favs that Won, how many by ONLY 1 run?

I've seen numbers in the low 20% range but was curious

No big deal if too much trouble!

Trying to decide if I should always play RL rather than -1 on big chalk
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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Timmy Rules said:
Question mrpickem...could you easily run a report on how favs did last year?

and then of the favs that Won, how many by ONLY 1 run?

I've seen numbers in the low 20% range but was curious

No big deal if too much trouble!

Trying to decide if I should always play RL rather than -1 on big chalk
Click to expand...

It looks like 25.9% win by one run. Counting 2018 to current

W and F and season > 2017
SU:1535-0 (3.74, 100.0%) avg line: -166.2 / 151.8 on / against: +$153,500 / -$153,610 ROI: +60.2% / -100.0%
RL:1134-397 (2.27, 74.1%) avg line: 116.7 / -137.2 on / against: +$98,658 / -$117,481 ROI: +58.8% / -54.4%
OU:727-746-59 (0.50, 49.4%) avg total: 8.6 over / under: -$8,453 / -$4,649 ROI: -5.0% / -2.8%

<tbody>
</tbody>
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team6.403.917.479.842.291.563.151.676.2314.747.010.841.784.25
Opp2.662.599.476.971.440.791.750.630.9713.376.420.843.664.34

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>
 

TimmyRules

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Thank You!! I remembered seeing Mosi post a number around 25 so now I knoww-thumbs!^
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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adding
920 Minnesota Twins -1½ +100

contrary to popular belief, it had been quite profitable betting big favorites over the last 5+ season
Almost 10% ROI on RL when betting favs from -170 to -300. I omitted games in Sept for obvious reasons. I also omitted games with total under 8 as a truly great pitcher can shut anyone down

-300 <= line <= -170 and season > 2013 and month < 9 and total >= 8
SU:981-392 (2.03, 71.4%) avg line: -201.3 / 183.7 on / against: +$20,733 / -$27,282 ROI: +7.5% / -19.9%
RL:766-607 (0.53, 55.8%) avg line: -104.6 / -111.0 on / against: +$14,657 / -$25,029 ROI: +9.7% / -15.9%
OU:673-631-69 (0.72, 51.6%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: -$1,566 / -$10,380 ROI: -1.0% / -6.9%

<tbody>
</tbody>
RunsWalksSOHitsXBHHRSIIMRIILLOBTLOBODPSRAPU
Team5.813.727.059.652.211.512.951.465.0814.837.050.922.504.03
Opp3.772.669.308.081.751.012.180.962.3513.656.460.833.654.14

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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Messages
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[21-16 +3.31u]
2-5-2 Yesterday

terrible day, moving on...

  • 951 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ -105
  • 953 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 8 +105
  • 959 San Diego Padres/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 8½ +100
  • 961 Milwaukee Brewers/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 9 -105
  • 961 Milwaukee Brewers +132
  • 966 New York Yankees -1½ +100
  • 968 Boston Red Sox -1½ -135
  • 974 Kansas City Royals +128
  • 975 Oakland Athletics/Texas Rangers Over 11 -105
:toast:
​
 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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[26-20 +4.2u]
5-4 Yesterday

Nothing great, just grinding
aagc.jpg



  • 901 New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Under 7½ -110
  • 902 Philadelphia Phillies -118
  • 912 Boston Red Sox -1½ -135
  • 917 Kansas City Royals +119
  • 917 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Under 9 +105
Big April favs of 185-240 are returning almost 18% over last 6+ years on RL (BOS today)

 
mrpickem

mrpickem

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Messages
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[26-25 -0.8u]
0-5-1 Yesterday :ohno:

Eight lefties and three Lopez's go today

  • 961 Colorado Rockies +115
  • 975 Houston Astros -153
  • 954 Washington Nationals -1½ +120
  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +125
  • 968 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -130
  • 975 Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics Over 8½ -110
  • 977 Cleveland Indians/Seattle Mariners Under 8 -105
 
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