Underdogs System

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Hey everyone. New to the forum.

I've worked in data analysis for 20 years, and have developed an underdog system that returned ~10% ROI in the 2018 MLB season.

I'll post daily results in this thread. You can also find results in the Site Promotions forum as well, but I won't post a link here as I don't want to break any forum rules.
 

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Today is Day 14 of the MLB season, but here we go...


2/6 yesterday, but still a 22% ROI. Sweet.

(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll)


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
69u invested
15.45u profit
22.39% ROI


2019 SEASON:
78 bets
31W-47L
605u invested
76.60u profit
12.66% ROI


YESTERDAY:
TOR 3.00 - 12u - W
MIN 2.85 - 17u - W
NYY 2.65 - 18u
MIA 2.60 - 13u
DET 2.45 - 8u
CWS 2.35 1u


TODAY:
Looking at these underdogs for today... lines are still moving around a lot.


MIN 2.80
PIT 2.50
WAS 2.50
CWS 2.35
MIA 2.35
TEX 2.35
 

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Just realized I could add images - so I get to share graphs and stuff. :) You can also find results in the xxxxxxxxxxx forum as well, but I won't post a link here because I have both a free and paid daily email and I don't want to break any forum rules.

3/6 of our underdogs won yesterday. Keep it rolling. :)


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
71u invested
13.70u profit
19.30% ROI


2019 SEASON:
84 bets
34W-50L
676u invested
90.30u profit
13.36% ROI


YESTERDAY:
MIN - 2.80 - 7u
PIT - 2.50 - 15u - W
WAS - 2.50 - 17u - W
CWS - 2.35 - 18u
MIA - 2.35 - 12u
TEX - 2.35 - 2u - W

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5cb7d261-4ece-4b24-84f5-81fa08246579_636x338.png






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(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll - so, if your units are $1, having a bankroll of 1000 is ideal - last year when testing this system, I needed a max of 256 units on any one day, but I'm financially conservative, so having a much larger bankroll is ideal)
 

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Forgot to include the underdogs I'm looking at today:

TODAY:


TOR - 2.65


MIA - 2.40


BAL - 2.40


STL - 2.20


KC - 2.10


DET - 2.10
 

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THURSDAY RESULTS:

1/6 of our underdogs won yesterday.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
1W-5L
64u invested
-28.80u loss
-45.00% ROI


2019 SEASON:
90 bets
35W-55L
740u invested
61.50u profit
8.31% ROI


YESTERDAY:
TOR - 2.65 - 6u
MIA - 2.40 - 11u
BAL - 2.40 - 14u
STL - 2.20 - 16u - W
KC - 2.10 - 14u
DET - 2.10 - 3u


TODAY:
BAL 3.15
CWS 3.00
PIT 2.49
MIA 2.40
LAA 2.30
KC 2.26



I'll put unit sizes on Saturdays and Sundays - just too busy during the week to come back before each game..


(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll - so, if your units are $1, having a bankroll of 1000 is ideal - last year when testing this system, I needed a max of 256 units on any one day, but I'm financially conservative, so having a much larger bankroll is ideal)


https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb77d7fdb-4729-454a-b806-66be09793bad_634x394.png

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3/6 underdogs won yesterday

3/6 of our underdogs won yesterday. Their larger lines = profits.

I have both free and paid versions of a daily email with this system - I won't link to it here (although I do in the "Site Promotions" forum), but send me a message if you want in on the free version, or want a free week on the paid) as I don't want to break forum rules


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
79u invested
11.39u profit
14.39% ROI


2019 SEASON:
96 bets
38W-58L
819u invested
72.87u profit
8.90% ROI


YESTERDAY:
BAL - 3.15 - 7u
CWS - 3.00 - 13u - W
PIT - 2.49 - 17u - W
MIA - 2.40 - 20u
LAA - 2.30 - 18u
KC - 2.26 - 4u - W


TODAY:
BAL - 3.20 - 5u
DET - 2.75 - 8u
TOR - 2.60 - 10u
CWS - 2.55 - 11u
LAA - 2.55 - 9u
SEA - 2.55 - 2u





I'll put unit sizes on Saturdays and Sundays - just too busy during the week to come back before each game.. BUT send me a DM and I'll set you up with a week on the daily morning email I send each morning that has unit sizes

(unit size is 0.1% of bankroll - so, if your units are $1, having a bankroll of 1000 is ideal - last year when testing this system, I needed a max of 256 units on any one day, but I'm financially conservative, so having a much larger bankroll is ideal)

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fabe853de-f863-4cb9-b0bf-c2ff7d9a481a_748x242.png


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Haha. Yes. I tested this system over all of the 2018 season (didn't start betting until May when I had a month of data) and tweaked it all season long.

I'm very data-centric. Probably put over 1000 hours of analysis into this as well as similar things I'm developing for the NHL and NBA. :)

Holy shit! lots of info!
 

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A good day with the big underdogs yesterday.

Baltimore rocking Boston (congrats Chris Davis on your hits!), Toronto outlasting Tampa, and the Angels winning.



YESTERDAY:
6 bets
3W-3L
45u invested
19.95u profit
44.33% ROI


2019 SEASON (so far):
102 bets
41W-61L
864u invested
92.82u profit
10.74% ROI


YESTERDAY:
BAL - 3.20 - 5u - W
DET - 2.75 - 8u
TOR - 2.60 - 10u - W
CWS - 2.55 - 11u
LAA - 2.55 - 9u - W
SEA - 2.55 - 2u


TODAY:

BAL - 3.35 - 4u
DET - 2.90 - 6u
PIT - 2.75 - 8u
CWS - 2.65 - 8u
MIA - 2.60 - 6u
SEA - 2.45 - 1u




https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9065e619-1d79-40f4-996e-a53334bc2603_753x258.png


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Wow. Early BAL-BOS game today.


2 of 6 winners yesterday, yet still a 30%+ ROI, with my staking system.


YESTERDAY:

  • BAL - 3.35 - 4u
  • DET - 2.90 - 6u
  • PIT - 2.75 - 8u - W
  • CWS - 2.65 - 8u - W
  • MIA - 2.60 - 6u
  • SEA - 2.45 - 1u
TODAY:

  • BAL - 3.10 - 3u
  • CIN - 2.50 - 5u
  • STL - 2.20 - 6u
  • KC - 2.15 - 6u
  • TOR - 2.05 - 4u
  • SEA - 2.00 - 1u


Lots of Data:

:)



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pnyHF68snwRJwY2QyNHwyG5B-Vb3CEAb12KLSc_00PuMDZrdgMX2-4MNdyCqpo2xx7SdOjXxigYsnnRN97G-B_dS9SRGAdVpyMxF9wm_EwAnOq14__VlkYp6Nm_NpjzMCaWSVa7hvdn1pfgQs_EOrdlgkPyuaqNbADXsSr3hczsV_uTzho9d22htiYR-p810t_HPlkFSseAcRlaiFrakU-VOl3Hnl4sMBvSyVB7Zy27iHoZlODx1Cq85KilRwSHL5Pumn_yLvJOzTdQme3Core3woL6grNHRXgO5GBRsTVqC1vrMwzQW31lV0Tkb=s0-d-e1-ft


ukvUYuukSU3qn0HVUBZvtW425D4ogVoTCKJda45EEY-ibV21hir2xXzVHPEbJMZWJERbq8PbmVhTlkKdYN05XO21loT_aV5hoU9s6EOolqq0PS9hGbeO73oKDXj6-yTYfa4dy5itHKH86fOmQ5lq-wV6VzGJpwl62dFoqxMSvwV2RRhIqsy3mZai1-GiB1ggK2H2k__4figQGTpDVTjHXoThO-BZkmvrUSkEbL-UP3h-KyYSnLd8d4lmB39DdVmeazQe_K5R34EBnjufAypI_AGO-bbKYPzLmwbhS91lxAFXwbLsg8Qu8oa6jL55=s0-d-e1-ft


hyxGeZKXJBEWPYml_T8mvafqURvTAZaDRjow8vK_wTEOc5swSXhKaghxUHv7iuGxv4dHkYHCEex7ZmPeZwH5aLxYjtGCRkqr_Ioqo-ab6_mgLZ9Byd836BFlhkAu-QFWgHWnmSiyuNpQFPabgc0FUrhLzM8gS30XYUqGXuXHuHQjncw2ghC8bon2TdvZ1NkzEE8lvMSdxL9kzDOOOpKGG-Idn507mhslj1NM2BykC2gR5NoS8hayWF68FGakT_P2Nskz9tB_AraJx1YuCYmY-saCYGlK-twIPvZMBkV-2mlWtpS-hqm7xwY5V8Iu=s0-d-e1-ft


Qr9SlhD-ayyYSkZ6RKg7S_C2CeGCUnJEn1wbklfty8QnD7doPTXZA6TFqydNd54G6RqNnGV4LEWGRANGjnW9wZL4B967E2kozKbeUyLbE-52RhNEu_9RFwWb6nxU_RGfh1Wx1VcK7mV6wYW9yvrXeN3eBuClGyAY8uU-FyRcq--WnFs8jAJBtvmj5g_hlJ7tP1BKRSNvLzpV7Dwo5_r4KhRw2iw1tjL4sYZCPYo1UMkpfztdZ_ZvtpBwZoIZcU05B8hwTMQFA0BpGaeud-KRSpjX4sximLJSLpLbAbl7Z1wK8nMWZI1Fu3IHtMU9=s0-d-e1-ft


d1heisn7NEtOzf3QAqKkAoy-M0dZwf99AmVWvA9z47k8A9U57UGW0zHzx_JTv31IVW82-TI15o6YnQFn_DdPDg79kGNhzxbqYj5v7orKDLzAWL44HQx6Zrxxe4A-6vQPo7d95_H9og10Fp8QZb4LTAH7hUSZ8xcOLbSToWEEYZHm3UvE4iP3CbxTbO_MSjMFlH825V91m3UBI-Uqet_c18ks4Awf1lyF7EVwZrCo-xG2jSQg_bnyDH0GlNtB3Scob2Il1XizD6zbd5FrRW0romlIKPnJ2dbfLlYtpQDheAm47oA5M9_pHMWWlak3=s0-d-e1-ft
 

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Good luck topdog! Hope you stick around all season!

all those damn graphs and stats give me flashbacks to gawd awful financial meetings LOL
 

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Oh no... sorry re the flashbacks. I don't want to induce any PTSD here.

Oh yeah, I'll be here all season. no plans to the contrary. :)

I'm new here, but loving all the great ideas and strategies.


Good luck topdog! Hope you stick around all season!

all those damn graphs and stats give me flashbacks to gawd awful financial meetings LOL
 

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2 of 6 winners yesterday.

I'll come back this afternoon and add in today's picks.


YESTERDAY:
6 bets
2W-4L
33u invested
-7.50u loss
-30.00% ROI


2019 SEASON (so far):
114 bets
45W-69L
922u invested
95.52u profit
10.36 ROI


YESTERDAY:

BAL - 3.10 - 3u - W
CIN - 2.50 - 5u
STL - 2.20 - 6u
KC - 2.15 - 6u
TOR - 2.05 - 4u - W
SEA - 2.00 - 1u

THE DATA

I've worked in data analysis for 20+ years, so I think about this stuff more as data than as sports.


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Nice work and good luck with your plays, TDP. Nice to see a good strategy paying off

Don't mind idiots like LargeMarge. Guy is a ghost and runs around the forum trying to stir the pot. He thinks everyone is me
 

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Thanks Sam. I'll go look up your threads.

I hope to post here all season long, winning or losing. :)
 

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