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Thread: Warriors: Last year/ This year

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  1. #1 Warriors: Last year/ This year 
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    Remember last season, the Warriors ended the season terribly, going 7-10 to end the season? Then the playoffs started, and they dismantled the Spurs in 5, winning 3 of the games easily. They then knocked out the Pelicans fairly easily after NO had swept the favored Blazers. This season, the Warriors have played outstanding ball in the last month, ESPECIALLY when the game had meaning. They play to another level when the games count, are bored otherwise, and have an underrated defense. So look for early opportunities to take them, 1H, 2H, in-game… I'm on them large for:

    Golden St. -7 1H
    If they don't cover 1H, I'll hit them large 2H or in-game. The Clippers played fairly mediocre their last few weeks. They have played a weak schedule in April and March, with their last signature win on March 19 at home vs. Indiana- winning by 6. The Warriors match up well with the Clippers and are at home. DeMarcus Cousins is playing well, a player they didn't have in last year's playoff.
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    You have to buy into the theory that professional teams can turn it on or off when they want to. GST very well could do that as the off switch was off for a good part of the year...their talent got them to where they are plus the fact the KD plays hard everynight. They were only 43% ATS this year including losing 11 at home. Cousins has never played a PO game and you never know when Green will implode. Iggy is not capable of sustained high-level play anymore and the bench is much weaker than past years. With that, they very well may sweep LAC, but I don't think there is value in laying double digits hoping they are motivated to play each of the four games.
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by azbob View Post
    You have to buy into the theory that professional teams can turn it on or off when they want to. GST very well could do that as the off switch was off for a good part of the year...their talent got them to where they are plus the fact the KD plays hard everynight. They were only 43% ATS this year including losing 11 at home. Cousins has never played a PO game and you never know when Green will implode. Iggy is not capable of sustained high-level play anymore and the bench is much weaker than past years. With that, they very well may sweep LAC, but I don't think there is value in laying double digits hoping they are motivated to play each of the four games.
    This Warriors team is unusual in that they do seem to turn it on when needed. Not that they will win every game in this series by double digits, but they will have absolute dominant halves or quarters, and likely win at least 2 of these games easily. The 43% ATS record is mostly due to them being such a public favorite that the spreads became ridiculous, because every team gets up for them regular season while GS doesn't get up for every team, and because Kerr rested players often for even the tiniest of injuries. I doubt Green or Cousins are going to hurt this team in this series more than they will help them. I also disagree that the bench is much weaker. The Clippers will have their moments, maybe cover or win a home game, but the Warriors looked pretty damn good the last 4-6 weeks in games that mattered to them, often putting up big 1H leads. After their blowout loss to Boston, they got serious.
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    Quote Originally Posted by azbob View Post
    Cousins has never played a PO game and you never know when Green will implode. Iggy is not capable of sustained high-level play anymore and the bench is much weaker than past years.
    Agree with iggy and bench. Although looney is much improved. He's having his best season and Warriors have size again with Cousins/looney.

    Cousins lack of playoff experience is a non factor because he has zero pressure on him. He's the 3rd/4th option on the team. He's playing with confidence every game because he's on the best team.

    Green implodes against certain teams/players that are actually close to the Warriors level. Not the clippers. I don't think Vegas can set the spread high enough for the Warriors not to cover 3/4 games.

    Note: huge warriors Homer fan
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    I was comparing GST's bench to that of the past...not versus the LAC bench.

    Agree with the points made and, no doubt, wisdom dictates GST blowouts. Teams in the first round at -8.5 or more are 39-1 SU and 22-18 ATS...I don't see a breakdown for double digit favs broken out. I'm not betting the game as I see no value. If I had the points, I think I would be close the whole game and then, just like you "right said Fred," GST will run off 14-0 and I will be relying on the scrubs to get me back to 12. I can find better ways to deploy my $$.
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  6. #6  
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    I'm going to play these games for those GS runs. They get down 1H, I'll look for a live play or 2H.
    Note: Not at all a Warriors fan, but this might be their best team yet…if they stay healthy. You think -12 and -7 1h is steep, what f they start blowing out playoff opponents? Then the lines will be ridiculous.
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    One thing for sure. GSW has the best second half coach in the league. If GSW plays sub-par in the FH...must follow for the 2nd Half play. GLTA
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  8. #8  
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    Thanks to the above posters for a meaningful discussion. Need more of that in the football forum.
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  9. #9  
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    The Warriors game went as expected, except their team defense is even better than I thought. If they have any weakness, it's that they make some risky offensive plays that sometimes lead to TOs or poor shots. The Clips hit some bad shots too. The games will be chippy that's for sure.

    Small:
    Portland -3 (-118) Paul George has killed the Blazers, and his shoulder isn't right even if he does play. Portland coming off last year's debacle sweep to the Pelicans, and they'll be super motivated here. Is Westbrook the most overrated player in the NBA as player polls suggest? Blazers have replaced Nurkic decently, but we'll see ion the playoffs.

    Milwaukee -7 1H (-115) The Pistons looked awful toward the end of the season. The Bucks at home could dominate this series in at least 3 of the games.
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    Thank you fred...good luck bud.
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  11. #11  
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    Game One and already we kind of know the 3 contenders for the crown: Warriors, Rockets, Bucks. My betting strategy is to look for opportunities to hit them, especially GS and Milwaukee, at quarters, halves or live. They WILL dominate at some points of these first round games. Look for them to rebound off a close game, losing half, losing quarter, etc.

    Warriors could be a nice play since they and the Clippers have decided to make it personal. Although, Durant for Beverly ejection, again, is a huge net loss for Warriors. I don't expect the Bucks and Rockets to win quite so easily in game 2.

    Golden State 1H -8 (-120)

    Small: GS -5 1Q
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    Milwaukee -9 1H Looks like Blake Griffin is likely out for the whole series, which might be a short series anyways. Griffin's absence just accentuates the athletic mismatch between these two teams. The Pistons can only stay in this by hitting on 3s, but the Bucks have an excellent perimeter defense- which should help.

    Game One was decided in the 2nd quarter, and clearly the Bucks let up 2nd half. If this 1H is close, look for Bucks 3rd quarter. I may not post it, but I'll be on it. Last good team the Pistons beat was Portland on March 30, with the Blazers missing Nurkic and McCollum, and Lilliard having an off night. The Blazers were also playing the 3rd game in 4 nights on a grueling road trip.
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Game One and already we kind of know the 3 contenders for the crown: Warriors, Rockets, Bucks. My betting strategy is to look for opportunities to hit them, especially GS and Milwaukee, at quarters, halves or live. They WILL dominate at some points of these first round games. Look for them to rebound off a close game, losing half, losing quarter, etc.

    Warriors could be a nice play since they and the Clippers have decided to make it personal. Although, Durant for Beverly ejection, again, is a huge net loss for Warriors. I don't expect the Bucks and Rockets to win quite so easily in game 2.

    Golden State 1H -8 (-120)

    Small: GS -5 1Q

    Both Durant & Beverley will both be playing in Monday's game.
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    Quote Originally Posted by varkeyboy View Post
    Both Durant & Beverley will both be playing in Monday's game.
    My write-up didn't say otherwise. I was saying that during a game they could get ejected together, such as game 1, and THEN the Warriors would be worse off.
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  15. #15  
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    Fred tread lightly with the Warriors they are a difficult team to wager on, although in the playoffs they have been slightly more consistent. Remember that in the last four years they have essentially played an entire extraordinary FULL SEASON of games which partially explains the head scratching losses during the year when every team brings their A game on a nightly basis. That said, no team flips the switch (from SU and ATS standpoint) as well as the warriors. With age and opponents not named the Clippers “catching up” I believe this road to the championship will be the toughest so far. They may not even get out of the second round this year... (see Houston +1000 to win it all)
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  16. #16  
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    The Rockets took them to 7 games last year, and could upset them this year. Great series ahead, but right now the Clippers are not in their league. Same with Bucks-Pistons. I'm just looking to capitalize on these early mismatches by playing those parts of games where these teams dominate a much weaker opponent. Houston too. If any of the 3 falter, they'll rebound well next game, next half.

    Wagering on the Warriors regular season a bad idea except when they are healthy and the game has meaning. The last month, they slaughtered Denver twice, whooped a few other contenders, and usually did it in the 1st half or 3rd quarter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Game One and already we kind of know the 3 contenders for the crown: Warriors, Rockets, Bucks. My betting strategy is to look for opportunities to hit them, especially GS and Milwaukee, at quarters, halves or live. They WILL dominate at some points of these first round games. Look for them to rebound off a close game, losing half, losing quarter, etc.

    Warriors could be a nice play since they and the Clippers have decided to make it personal. Although, Durant for Beverly ejection, again, is a huge net loss for Warriors. I don't expect the Bucks and Rockets to win quite so easily in game 2.

    Golden State 1H -8 (-120)

    Small: GS -5 1Q
    Great call!! Thanks!!
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  18. #18  
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    Warriors got it done 1Q and 1H. Now Cousins likely out for rest of series, maybe longer. Looney and Iggy can fill in nicely, but this weakens their depth.

    Small:
    Denver/ SA- under 53.5- 1Q Both of these offenses take their time developing their plays. Denver played strong D 2nd half last game, and knowing their season is on the line, will come out aggressive on D. SA has Derrick White playing outstanding D and slowing down Nugget offense.
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  19. #19  
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    O'Fred....you keep doing your thing. Thanks for the big winner on the Warriors 1H again! That's two 1H winners in 2 games. Keep rolling! Let's do it again with the Bucks tomorrow. These teams are the CREAM OF THE CROP!
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  20. #20  
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    Warriors in relaxed mode too much 2nd half, and it's costing them. Clippers looking like the hungrier team…..
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  21. #21  
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Warriors in relaxed mode too much 2nd half, and it's costing them. Clippers looking like the hungrier team…..
    Wow wow wow. What an amazing comeback!
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  22. #22  
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    Good call on the first half. I think you could make an arguement on either side of the equation for game three (at least for the first half). Looks like Steve Kerr got outcoached in the second half Vitu. GST better get their emotions in check and I think Iggy is the guy who is going to have to provide some leadership even if he is not playing very well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by azbob View Post
    Good call on the first half. I think you could make an arguement on either side of the equation for game three (at least for the first half). Looks like Steve Kerr got outcoached in the second half Vitu. GST better get their emotions in check and I think Iggy is the guy who is going to have to provide some leadership even if he is not playing very well.
    Agreed. Thinking we are dealing with a whole new GSW. For those of you that didn't watch 60 Minutes this Sunday, GSW was featured. You can watch it for free on the CBS website. Something is off with them. Some bickering and stuff with Steph being late every single day for the buses. Entitlement. Kerr saying he doesn't need to coach anymore. He NEVER coaches Steph. Just let's him do whatever he wants. Weird profile. Must watch.

    For several seasons Kerr made great adjustments at half time. Now GSW comes out firing away and then just coasts. Somebody is going to beat this team this season. GLTA
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    The West is a bear, and the Warriors had a number of games in last year's playoffs where they faltered or lost. Even with Cousins out, they will have some nice streaks, a couple big wins, and likely win the West- although Houston is the one team that could change that. Last night, as in many GS games, they get a big lead, and get sloppy, complacent, too loose, whatever, but you could see their intensity was not there 3rd quarter. That's why taking these big spreads for the game is not always wise with them.

    Kerr said it in his 60 Minutes interview. Their ultimate is getting so far ahead that the bench plays the whole 4th quarter. He loves it, the starters and top bench guys love it. Last night they thought, "We got this" too early. As for the rest of the 60 Minutes interview, I didn't get a feeling of entitlement or big issues. Like any team of stars with big egos, they have conflicts. But Kerr is 80 % psychologist, and I think on the court they play very well as a team IF they feel they HAVE to play their best to win.

    I'm not a Warriors fan at all, and like the Patriots, we're all sick of them winning so much- but when money is on the line, go with what gets it.
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    Totally agree - dubs have the greatest collection of talent ever assembled but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the greatest team ever assembled. The loss of DMC may actually be a blessing in disguise and force them back into their old ways - ball movement, translation offense, death lineup with small ball, etc. I would be very surprised if dubs don’t cover game 3 - even at the outrageous road spread of -9. Out of pure pride and anger, they will not let off the pedal this time...
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