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Thread: Cnotes NFL 2019-2010 Football Schedule + News .Notes,Draft, Etc.

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  1. #26  
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    AFC East Preview
    July 14, 2019
    By Marc Lawrence



    In addition to the previews outlined below, these interesting scheduling statistical notes merit consideration, compliments of the 2019 MTI Regular Season NFL Win Report:


    Buffalo – Bills will face 3 foes with a Thursday game on deck, 3 foes with a Monday game on deck, and 3 foes in the 2nd of two or more away games ... -5 net turnovers in 2018.


    Miami – Dolphins will face 2 foes coming off a bye week ...+5 net turnovers in 2018.


    New England – Pats have failed to play ‘under’ their season win total 10 straight years ... will face 3 foes coming off a bye week ... +10 net turnovers in 2018.


    NY Jets – Jets will face 2 foes coming off a Thursday game, and 2 foes coming off a Monday game ... -10 net turnovers in 2018.




    Buffalo Bills


    TEAM THEME: TAKE A LOOK AT ME NOW



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6.5 (over -160)
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 125


    Some say the best part of dating a Buffalo Bills fan is that you know she ain’t looking for a ring. It may be cruel but the fact of the matter is it’s been a long time (1995, 23 seasons ago) that Buffalo last enjoyed a playoff win. It’s also been since 2006 the last time the Bills opened a season with their first two games on the road – and both of them in the same stadium, no less. It’s been even longer when Buffalo was featured on Thanksgiving (1994). And so former Dallas Cowboy Cole Beasley, signed by Buffalo as a free agent in the offseason, returns to the Big ‘D’. It’s part of a brutal four-game season-ending trek for the Bills when they meet Baltimore at home and then hit the highway again for consecutive road games at Pittsburgh and New England in December.


    Ironically, Buffalo will also take part in what could be a quintet of 2018 first-round quarterback battles when Bills QB Josh Allen faces Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold (twice). Through it all, GM Brandon Beane is at the forefront of a massive reconstruction, bringing Ken Dorsey in as its quarterback’s coach. Dorsey worked for five seasons with NFL MVP Cam Newton in Carolina and figures to polish up Allen’s skills. Aside from reforming the roster with plenty of free agent signings the past two seasons, Beane appeared to hit a home run with defensive tackle Ed Oliver with the ninth pick in this year’s draft. Oliver figures to make everyone around him better with his freakish athleticism. Bills fans attending games nowadays will finally need a program, and that’s a good thing.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 2019 marks the 8th year in the last 9 seasons in which the Bills will feature a new wide receivers coach.


    PLAY ON: vs. Baltimore (12/8)


    INSIDE THE STATS: The Bills are 1-21 SU in division games the L9Y when they commit 2 or more turnovers.




    Miami Dolphins


    TEAM THEME: WE’VE SEEN THIS BEFORE



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 5 (under -120)
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 132.5


    Dave Hyde of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel put it best when he said that not having the burden of winning in the first year for a new regime is often the head fake of any rebuild. So it is for new Dolphins GM Chris Grier and new mentor Brian Flores. As a result, Grier didn’t fill holes in the offseason, he made them. Gone are Miami mainstays Ryan Tannehill, Cam Wake, and Robert Quinn. In is young, cheap talent with an upside (read: AAF signees). In other words, meet the “Miami Apollos”. No, it won’t be quite that bad for Flores and Grier, not with the addition of talented QB Josh Rosen, the former 10th pick in the 2017 draft acquired via a trade on Day Two of this year’s NFL Draft from Arizona.


    While Rosen’s 66.7 Passer Rating as a rookie with the Cardinals did not jump off the page, it was higher than the rookie ratings of Tom Brady, John Elway, Kurt Warner, Eli Manning and Troy Aikman – Hall of Famers all. Remember, the Fins allowed 6,257 yards last season, the worst in franchise history, while the offense gained fewer than 200 yards in five games. And for all of this, Adam Gase is the Jets’ new sideline boss. WTF? And so the rebuild begins.

    STAT YOU WILL LIKE:
    Miami is 42-18 SU at home in September since 1980.


    PLAY ON: vs. New England (9/15)


    INSIDE THE STATS: The Dolphins are 11-27 ITS in December since 2006.




    New England Patriots


    TEAM THEME: JEWELED BY KRAFT



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 11 (over -150)
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 120.5


    Following last season’s 13-3 win over the Rams in Super Bowl LIII, iconic QB Tom Brady now owns a Super Bowl ring for every round of players that were drafted ahead of him. Meanwhile, Pats owner Robert Kraft owns enough jewelry to keep his name off courtroom dockets. It was also the first time since 1972 (Miami Dolphins) that a team lost a Super Bowl game one season and came back to win the Super Bowl the following season. So what does New England do for an encore this season? It’s always difficult for defending Super Bowl champions to play to the same level the following season. Making matters worse, the retirement of megastar TE Rob Gronkowski and top free agent Trey Flowers, along with multiple staff departures, certainly leaves a void.


    So what will life be like with the fallout of the aforementioned personnel? As one NFL executive put it, “Belichick is the guy who climbs Everest without oxygen just to see if he can do it. It'll work out for them." Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Dante Scarnecchia are still there, and that’s key. With it, New England is chasing Dallas’ record of 20 straight winning seasons, and ironically the Pats will host the Cowboys the final Sunday in November. From a schedule standpoint, the Patriots take on the softest itinerary in the league from an opponent season-win projection. This also marks the third straight year the Pats will close the season with consecutive home games. Life is great if you’re a Patriot.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bill Belichick is 17-1 SU in the playoffs against foes that he did not face during the regular season.


    PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Washington (10/6)


    INSIDE THE STATS: The Patriots have 3 or more turnovers in only 6 of their last 101 games.




    New York Jets


    TEAM THEME: GASE MY WAY



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 122.5


    Some way, somehow, Adam Gase managed to convince acting Jets owner Christopher Johnson that he was their man. In typical Gase fashion, his first move was a power struggle with GM Mike Maccagnan, resulting in Maccagnan’s firing. Gase then promptly traded away LB Derron Lee. The fact of the matter is Gase's primary objective is to develop Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowl-caliber franchise quarterback. If he does that, no one will care about what happened this offseason. If it doesn’t, Mr. Congeniality will be looking for work sooner than later. We have serious reservations, though, given the fact that Gase’s offenses in Miami declined each and every season during his three-year tenure with the Dolphins, ranking 24th, 25th and 31st.


    Furthermore, Gase’s system threatens to choke out Darnold’s potential by ordering him to throw too many too-short passes. Perhaps the addition of RB Le’Veon Bell, an excellent receiver out of the backfield, will aid in the transition. Visit FootballOutsiders.com for more on the metrics involved in Gase’s shortcomings and you can draw your own conclusions. Also, check out our STAT YOU WILL LIKE below for more on Gase’s inadequacies. Through it all, the Jets enjoyed a strong Draft led by the selection of Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama with the 3rd overall pick. On paper, the Flyboys look improved. On the sidelines, they come up short.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miami Dolphins averaged 7.7 Penalties Per Game under Adam Gase, the 2nd worst in the league the past three seasons.


    PLAY ON: at Miami (11/3)


    INSIDE THE STATS: The Jets are 5-23 SU and 8-16-1 ATS in games in which they’ve been outyarded the L3Y.
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  2. #27  
    RX Semi-God
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    AFC North Preview
    July 21, 2019



    2019 AFC NORTH PREVIEW


    In addition to the previews outlined below, these interesting scheduling statistical notes merit consideration, compliments of the 2019 MTI Regular Season NFL Win Report:


    Baltimore – Ravens have not played ‘under’ their regular-season win total in any of the last five years... -3 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.


    Cincinnati – Bengals have played ‘under’ their regular-season win total 3 straight years ...+1 net turnover in 2018 regular season.


    Cleveland – Browns suffered 4 losses by 1-3 points last season ... +7 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.


    Pittsburgh – Steelers went ‘under’ their regular-season win total last season for the first time since 2013 ... -11 net turnovers in 2018 regular season.





    Baltimore Ravens


    TEAM THEME: MAVERICK IS THE NAME



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5 (over -120)
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 129


    The Ravens become the fourth team since the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978 to receive a perfectly balanced schedule, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Over the past 41 years, the only other teams to alternate home and away every game of the season were the 1985 Atlanta Falcons (finished 4-12), the 1991 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13) and the 2012 Falcons (13-3). Digging deeper, four of the Ravens’ first six games are against losing teams last year that changed head coaches, including their first two. And for the first time since 2006, neither game between Baltimore and Pittsburgh is slotted for prime time – despite the fact that only 7 of the last 25 games in this series have been decided by more than 7 points.


    Furthermore, the Black Birds will tackle 6 foes this season that amassed double-digit losses in 2018. Thus the question begs: will the arsenal of wide receivers Baltimore acquired in the offseason be enough to keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket where he belongs? Or is his instinct to run-first and pass only out of necessity embedded in his DNA? It’s apparent the Ravens are all-in with Jackson, making them mavericks in the current pass-crazy NFL. Then again, Bret Maverick constantly found himself in and out of life-threatening trouble during his time as a TV gambler on the run.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Ravens are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS at home following its bye week since 2002.


    PLAY ON: as a dog vs. New England (11/3)


    INSIDE THE STATS: After going 3-9 ITS in division games the Ravens went 4-2 in 2018.




    Cincinnati Bengals


    TEAM THEME: STRIPE HYPE



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6 (over -130)
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 129


    It took three successive losing seasons for the Bengals to show HC Marvin Lewis the door. Now Zac Taylor, the former LA Rams quarterbacks coach, assumes the reins. And because the NFL is a copycat league, Cincinnati is hoping he can do for the Bengals what Sean McVay has done for the Rams. McVay, though, inherited a good defense and a blossoming offense. Unfortunately, Cincinnati does not check either box. Despite finishing last in overall defense last season, only ONE of the Bengals first four picks in this year’s draft were defensive players. Go figure.


    They’re going to need production from TE Tyler Eifert who has played more than half of a 16 game schedule only three times in his 6-year career. If the talented tight end is healthy and plays to his level, he can help lift the offense to new heights. A lot more offensive production will need to come from suddenly aging Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle is listed as the 34th favorite to win the MVP award at +10000, and that likely tells you all you need to know about Taylor’s chances for success this season. Nonetheless, Cincinnati wants to believe Dalton’s sterling 17-11 SU and 17-8-3 ATS career record in September (3-1 last year) is a building block they can lean on. Good luck with that.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bengals own the NFL’s longest winless drought in the playoffs: 28 years.


    PLAY ON: at Cleveland (12/8)


    INSIDE THE STATS: Since it bye week in 2017, the Bengals are 6-19 ITS in their last 25 games.




    Cleveland Browns


    TEAM THEME: HUMBLE PIE



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9 (over -130)
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 124


    No team has appeared in fewer prime-time games over the past 10 seasons than the Browns (11). That’s about to change this season when Cleveland breaks through in four main attraction affairs. It’s safe to say the Browns have elevated excitement about the team. After inserting quarterback Baker Mayfield into the starting lineup and then winning five of its final seven games in 2018, they won the offseason, too, with trades for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., pass-rusher Olivier Vernon, and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. Coupled with another strong draft, and a roster stockpiled with talent, the Browns are suddenly the “it” team in the NFL this season.


    But before being anointed as Super Bowl champions, they would serve themselves well to remember they enter 2019 with 11 consecutive losing seasons, as well as missing the playoffs 16 years in a row. The last playoff victory was in 1994 (when they were last coached by Bill Belichick). In fact, according to Jarrett Bell of the USA TODAY, since the NFL realigned divisions in 2002, the AFC North title scorecard reads: Steelers 8, Ravens 5, Bengals 4, Browns 0. The thinking here is they would be better served approaching the season as a hungry underdog rather than the “new Patriots”, as OBJ declared. For a team with a whole new persona, let’s hope they adhere to Mayfield’s “Humble Over Hype” reminder bracelet.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: In going from zero wins to seven wins last season, the Browns defense regressed 65 YPG.


    PASS


    INSIDE THE STATS: The Browns are 1-28 SU and 2-27 ATS the L29 games in which they are minus in net TO’s.




    Pittsburgh Steelers


    TEAM THEME: FADING STARS



    Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9
    Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 128


    While many Steelers fans mourn the loss of star WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell this offseason, the hardest defection of all may be one that doesn’t show up in the stat sheets. After five years coaching the Steelers offensive line, Mike Munchak took the same job with the Denver Broncos, only his third NFL coaching stop in 25 years. His job was to keep Ben Roethlisberger upright and to create holes for the running game. Both Bell and Brown’s production benefitted mightily from Munchak’s know-how. With all three gainfully employed elsewhere, there will certainly be a new learning curve this season.


    Running back Benny Snell (Kentucky) was tapped in the 4th round of the draft and will likely compete with James Conner to fill Bell’s shoes. Wide receiver Diontae Johnson (Toledo) heard his name called in the 3rd round and will team with Ju-Ju Schuster and James Washington to somehow spell Brown. On the other side of the ball, LB Devin Bush (Michigan) was the Steelers No. 1 choice to fill a big gap left by the unfortunate blow suffered by Ryan Shazier. The 3 stars on the Steelers helmets represent materials used to produce steel: yellow for coal; orange for iron ore; and blue for steel scrap. Understandably, the fans are more concerned about the 3 stars that are no longer visible.


    STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who upset the Steelers are 2-18 SUATS away when coming off consecutive SUATS wins.


    PLAY ON: at New England (9/8)


    INSIDE THE STATS: The Steelers are an incredible 123-48 ITS in all games since 2009.
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