I'm looking to start capping baseball this season mainly focusing on great pitchers/good teams playing bad teams/teams on hot streaks. I think those situations so far this season and last season usually comes out to an average of -170 to -200 lines. I remember my friends who have been doing this for a while telling me to be careful/avoid about taking heavy favorites. I know from football at -110 lines that you start making profit hitting over 52.4%. At -200 lines you start making profit hitting over 66.7%. Over the course of the season great pitchers should have a good W/L record and their teams should be winning most of the games that they start. Also the good teams should finish well above .500 while the bad teams should finish well below .500. So is the advantage of taking great pitchers/teams worth the 14.3% higher rate that you have to hit in order to start making profits?
Those -200 + favorites are just not worth risking your winnings. Let’s say you have a hot week, 2 weeks, month etc and you’re up 100 units. It only takes losing one of those -200 + favorites and you’re back to even after all that hard work. Could be even worse if you end up chasing trying to win back what you lost and the team you’re playing is a -200 all weekend long...and loses 2 of 3. It’s just not smart money management. Plus if you’re truly handicapping games you’re not just playing chalk week in and week out. Anybody can do that. That’s not effective handicapping. Just my two cents. Take it for what it’s worth.
One last note. Take a look at topdogs picks on this forum. All he does is plays dogs. Not saying playing dogs is the way to go either. But his record isn’t pretty, but his ROI is. And at the end of the day that’s what it’s all about. Trying to play chalk and hope you don’t get stung when Chris Sale is a -325 favorite over a rookie pitcher making his major league debut for the Royals just isn’t worth risking my bankroll. Especially when that rookie wins.
Thanks everyone for the advice. I think my question may have been misconstrued by some. I wasn't advocating blindly laying heavy chalk across the board. Some of the situations that I'm targeting may lead to some plays being heavy favorites and I was asking if it's advisable to lay the chalk with those. I understand that you have to be very selective when it comes to those big favorites. Thanks again everyone for the input and advice.
