Monday Service Play Thread 4/22/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Stephen Nover

3*TOM
New York Mets / Philadelphia under 8.5

1*Dallas / Nashville over 5

2*Dallas -125

3*Houston -2.5
 

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HUDDLE UP

NBA 750,000* Lock:
Houston -2'

NBA High Roller Total:
Milwaukee/Detroit over 218

Best Bets:
Milwaukee +12
Houston/Utah over 213

MLB Grand Slam Lock:
Philadelphia Arrieta -107

Best Bets:
Triple Play: NY Yankees Happ -112
Double Play: Houston Peacock -179
Single Play: Detroit Boyd +185
 

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TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN MON NITE BASEBALL HI-ROLLER 7-0
Game: (967) New York Yankees at (968) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -111
 

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Dirty Bear Sports from cappertek

MLB:
HOU F5 -.5 -120 3u
MIL/STL F5 over 4.5 -120 1u
TEX/OAK F5 under 4.5 -110 1u

MLB Season: 16-16-2 50% -13.70 units
 

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Sportsvipvegas 4/22

Detroit +183
Arizona +125
Baltimore +105
NYM -1 (+128)
Oakland -1 (+1-3)
Angels -105
 

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BIG AL


At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Washington Capitals. When the 'Canes blasted the Caps, 5-0, in Game 3 and then followed that up with another victory in Game 4, it seemed like most of the air had gone out of the balloon of the defending Cup Champs. After all, that Game 4 win for Carolina included taking out one of the Caps best players in forward TJ Oshie, who will miss the rest of the post-season with a broken collarbone. But the Caps did the 'Canes' Game 3 tally one better on Saturday night, pounding the visitors, 6-0, in front of a frenzied sold-out crowd at Capital One Arena in DC. Now the Caps have to go back into Raleigh, and this series seems to have Game 7 written it all over it, as and the home team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings of these two (including 5-0 in this series). The 'Canes are 6-1 in their last seven games revenging a road blowout loss by three goals or more and 12-5 in their last 17 coming off of a loss to a division rival. Take Carolina.
 

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At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Washington Capitals. When the 'Canes blasted the Caps, 5-0, in Game 3 and then followed that up with another victory in Game 4, it seemed like most of the air had gone out of the balloon of the defending Cup Champs. After all, that Game 4 win for Carolina included taking out one of the Caps best players in forward TJ Oshie, who will miss the rest of the post-season with a broken collarbone. But the Caps did the 'Canes' Game 3 tally one better on Saturday night, pounding the visitors, 6-0, in front of a frenzied sold-out crowd at Capital One Arena in DC. Now the Caps have to go back into Raleigh, and this series seems to have Game 7 written it all over it, as and the home team is 7-1 in the last eight meetings of these two (including 5-0 in this series). The 'Canes are 6-1 in their last seven games revenging a road blowout loss by three goals or more and 12-5 in their last 17 coming off of a loss to a division rival. Take Carolina.
 

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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (573) Milwaukee Bucks at (574) Detroit Pistons
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 218.0 (-110)

View Analysis

The Bucks have dominated the Pistons all season. The question here is whether the Pistons will be passive or aggressive. The evidence supports the latter.

Detroit is 7-0 OU (+10.36 ppg) as a home dog off a game as a dog when they lost at least four straight vs their opponent. Fitting in very nicely here is the fact that the Bucks are 7-0 OU (+19.64 ppg) off a win when they won at least three straight vs their opponent.

The Bucks also qualify for a league-wide multi-season, playoff-only system. It states that NBA teams are 11-0 OU (+15.0 ppg) in the playoffs when they have less than two days rest, they are off a road game, and they are facing a team they beat at least two straight.

In addition, the Pistons are 11-0 OU (+14.05 ppg) as a home dog with rest off a loss in which they scored at least 20% of their points from threes and 6-0 OU (+16.42 ppg) as a home dog off a loss in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

The key-player trends reveal that the Pistons are 7-0 OU (+11.86 ppg) as a dog after a game in which Andre Drummond had a plus/minus at least five points better than the team.

Detroit only shot 38.5% from the field in game three. Milwaukee, now up 3-0, can relax on defense. They are feeling unbeatable and the don’t need to play defense to beat the Pistons.

Since late 2018 Milwaukee is 11-0 OU as a favorite by at least seven points when they held their previous opponent to less than 40% shooting, going over by an average of 18.45 ppg.

The Bucks have a lot of subs that love to fire up threes in garbage time (Ilyasova, Hill and Mirotic). We are on the OVER.

MTi’s FORECAST: Bucks 123 Pistons 109
Game: (575) Houston Rockets at (576) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 214.0 (-104)

View Analysis

The Rockets shot 38.4% from the field in game three, but they prevailed 104-101. We expect a similar effort here. Houston is 0-13 OU (-12.35 ppg) with rest off a win as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field.

The Rockets are also 0-10 OU (-10.50 ppg) on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after a game that was tied five-plus times and 0-7 OU off a win as a dog in which they trailed after the third, staying under by a massive 20.29 ppg on the average.

Houston only had 19 assists in their game three win, and Harden dished out ten of them. This activates a key-player, playoff-only indicator. Houston is 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) in the playoffs after a game in which James Harden had at least half of the team’s assists.

It is also worth mentioning that the Rockets are 0-6 OU off a win as a dog in which James Harden shot under 45 percent was their high scorer, staying under by an average of 17.08 ppg.

Turning our attention to the Jazz, we find that they tend to play low scoring games when they have double-revenge. Utah is 0-10 OU as a rested dog after playing as a home favorite when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent. They have stayed under by an average of 16.9 ppg in this spot and this including an overtime game that stayed UNDER.

The Jazz have been sharing the ball on offense and this also points to the UNDER. Utah is 0-9 OU (-16.83 ppg) as a dog off a home game when they are off two games in which more than 65 percent of their field goals were assisted.

Finally, we have a couple of key-player indicators working. The Jazz are 0-8 OU (-11.56 ppg) at home when Donovan Mitchell scored a least 15 more points last game then he did two games ago
and 0-8 OU THIS season off a home loss in which Joe Ingles attempted more three pointers than two pointers, staying under by an average of a whopping 20.81 ppg. We make the play the UNDER.

MTi’s FORECAST: JAZZ 102 Rockets 93
Game: (575) Houston Rockets at (576) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Utah Jazz 2.5 (-110)

View Analysis

Game three was a back-and-forth battle in which the Rockets just prevailed at the end. Now down 0-3 in the series, the Jazz effectively are playing for pride. We like the character of the Utah squad and we also think that the Rockets will take their foot off the gas after their victorious game three battle.

Since early THIS season Utah is a perfect 11-0 SU and 11-0 ATS with less than two days rest off a loss that was tied at least four different scores. They won straight up by an average of 17.82 ppg and covered by an average of 11.36 ppg. They were the underdog twice and they won both straight up; beating the Celtics 98-86 in Boston and the Warriors 108-103 at home.

On the other hand, the Rockets are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite off a game as a dog that was tied at least three times.

In game three, Donovan Mitchell lead the scoring for the Jazz, but he only shot 9-for-27 from the field. James Harden led the Rockets in scoring, but he was a brutal 3-for-20 from the field. Both of these point to a Jazz cover. Utah is 12-0 ATS after a game in which Donovan Mitchell shot under 45 percent but was their high scorer and the Rockets are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite off a game as a dog in which James Harden shot under 50 percent was their high scorer.

Continuing, we see that the Rockets are 0-9 ATS on the road off a win in which they shot under 40% from the field and 0-8 ATS with less than two days rest off a win in a road game after a win in which they trailed after each of the first three quarters.

Lastly, the Jazz are a resilient 10-0 ATS (+12.05 ppg) after a loss in which the number of free throws they missed was greater than the losing margin and a beast-mode-like 9-0 ATS (+14.61 ppg) as a dog with rest off a loss when they lost at least four straight vs their opponent. The Jazz won each of the last eight straight up and they were getting at least four points in every one of those wins. Impressive.

We would be very surprised if Houston was able to sweep here.

MTi’s FORECAST: JAZZ 102 Rockets 93
 

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Stephen Oh


UNDER 218 MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/22 | 8:00 PM EDT

YESTERDAY 8:34 PM
The last two games of this series have gone over. But just barely, by a combined 8.5 points. The game before that went under on its own by 8.5, and my projections see Detroit's defense having its best effort of the series. The Pistons haven't shown enough ability to push the number on their own, so take the Under (-112), which hits in two-thirds of my simulations.

23-18 IN LAST 41 NBA O/U PICKS | +308
3-0 IN LAST 3 DET O/U PICKS | +300


DETROIT +12

MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/22 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:21 PM
The Pistons have given us little reason to think they can compete at all against the Bucks, losing all three games so far by an average of 24 ppg. But Blake Griffin is questionable, and if he plays, this is a lot of points. Even if he doesn't, the Pistons should show some pride and go down fighting. My projections see a single-digit game, with Detroit covering in two-thirds of my simulations. Take the pile of points with the home team.

72-64 LAST 136 NBA SIDES | +239
3-2 IN LAST 5 DET ATS PICKS | +81


UTAH +2.5

HOUSTON @ UTAH | 4/22 | 10:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:18 PM
The spread has moved five points in Houston's direction since the opening line after escaping with a three-point Rockets home victory. But Utah is a tough place to win -- this is just the third time the Jazz will be a home underdog, both when Golden State came to town, and Utah covered in both. Houston got little scoring from James Harden and still won Game 3, but my projections like the Jazz playing to the final possession and covering.

72-64 LAST 136 NBA SIDES | +239
25-16 IN LAST 41 HOU ATS PICKS | +764
 

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