Thursday Service Play Thread 4/25/2019

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BIG TICKET 5% AL GAME ~ MONTH (5-0)
Game: (913) New York Yankees at (914) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 25 2019 9:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: New York Yankees -115

View Analysis

PLAY: New York Yankees -115 (good to -130)
5% game rating

LIST PITCHERS: Tanaka and Cahill

(913) New York Yankees at (914) Los Angeles Angels
The Yankees veteran right-hander Masahiro Tanaka picked up his first career win against the Royals last Saturday. Tanaka allowed one earned run on four hits. He struck out seven with the negative in the outing being three bases on balls. Note that a part of his command issues were weather related. The cold and damp conditions of the Bronx resulted in just the second time in his career he has walked three or more -- this in back-to-back starts.
If there is a pitch that is difficult to command in cool temps it is a splitter. Tanaka continues to improve with each passing start. Not just this season but during his MLB career. He should be considered a crafty veteran with the arsenal he sports. In addition, despite not having his best, healthy, defensive personnel behind him he lowered his season ERA and WHIP, 2.76 and 1.23, respectively.

Tanaka doesn't have elite command but his 5.5 BB percentage fits his 8.46 K/9 rate. His hard contact percentage has decreased with each start the Thursday night contest against the Angels and Cahill is nothing short of a mismatch. Tanaka does a great job of keeping the ball in the park and pitching at Angels Stadium is a walk in the park compared to that of Yankee Stadium and the carry that the Bronx air permits. Tanaka's 1.3 HR/9 rate makes the Halo's a long shot to put up crooked numbers in any of the early innings.

As successful as Angels starter Trevor Cahill appeared to have started the 2019 season the results were a mirage. This when examining his underlying peripherals and his performances since late March and early April.

What the veteran needs to be uber-successful he doesn't have heading into tonight's contest against the Yankees. Not only does Cahill face the task of getting the current Yankee lineup to swing at offerings outside of the K-Zone he requires an umpire that doesn't have a tight strikezone. He receives neither in this Thursday night affair.

Across the last week of MLB action the Yankees have drawn the second most walks of any lineup in the league, second to only Seattle. And New York is hitting nearly .275 against opposing pitchers secondary pitches which is equal to that of their average versus the fastball.

Cahill is all about getting swings and misses outside of the K'Zone and an umpire that is adept at calling sweeping curves and drop off the table offspeed pitches --- trust me when I tell you that Blakney is not that home plate umpire.

In addition Cahill’s 2018 ERA and contact rate to close the 2018 season was warm weather solid.. and came against an average of four minor league call-ups, September expanded roster lineups, a season ago. His 75.1% contact rate in his last fifteen games was the highest mark he had the entire season and that trend has continued in 2019. With the caveat that during his last three starts he continues to lose confidence in his stuff, or lack thereof.

He is not longer a ground-ball heavy pitcher and the result has seen him allow the same number of home runs (8) in 21 innings of work than he allowed last year in 121 innings. His hard contact percentage is trending the wrong direction and Angel Stadium isn't as pitcher-friendly as that of the Coliseum he pitched half of his innings in last year.

Offensively the second lineup, currently the first for the Yankees, have easily outperformed Mike Trout and the Angels. And an injury to 3B Zach Cozart leaves the Angels with a defensive hole at the hot corner.

During Spring Training there were ridiculous articles from Angels faithful, biased by a large measure, that claimed that the Halos had improved themselves in the offseason. There were some that went as far as to claim that the additions of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill put the team in a position to win the AL West. I won't mention the author of this but it is more than fair to state that the author doesn't know baseball.

The add of Justin Bour this offseason clogs the bases more than benefits the offense... Bour does find a way to get on base but the most valuable player on offense outside of Trout is the consistency and the bat of Jonathan Lucroy. And the addition of closer Cody Allen isn't significant because this team won't have a lot of late inning leads this season.

The weather in Los Angeles, the scheduled home plate umpire's strike zone and the bottom line pitching matchup significantly favors the Yankees. First pitch temps are expected in the high 70's with a 5-10 mph wind blowing to center field. Blakney will prove to be a nightmare for Cahill and the Yankees have more walks than the Angels have hits through five innings.

NEW YORK YANKEES

Al DeMarco
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3* LA ANGLES +100

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