NEVER picked DERBY winner! Looking for a 1099-G popcorn-eatinggif
I'm playing 145 triple straight in all races on Oaks/Derby Day. I'll have a cheerleader on OAKS Day in a suite of a sponsor of one of the races. We followed probably from Jan/Feb so I'll add my 2 cents..... Other information with plays to be added later.
I'm playing 145 triple straight in all races on Oaks/Derby Day. I'll have a cheerleader on OAKS Day in a suite of a sponsor of one of the races. We followed probably from Jan/Feb so I'll add my 2 cents..... Other information with plays to be added later.
1. Tacitus... Hasn’t down anything too impressive yet? Winner Tampa derby looks like WIN-WIN-WIN only derby horse in. Won Wood Memorial and beat Haikal/Tax and Country House.... GRAY or Roan Colt Tapit/Pulpit pedigree 113 Beyer
2. Omaha Beach... Could be DA winner! Arkansas Derby winner beat Improbable/Country House pulling away at end. Won Rebel Stakes beating Game Winner and Gunmetal Gray. Danzig/War Front pedigree.. Beyer 119
3. Vekoma A Kentucky horse - looking good - 2 starts and 2 wins with good earnings Won 4-6 Prep BEAT Signalman/Win-Win-Win and Somelikeithotbrown 100 point qualifier. Finished 3rd behind Code of Honor/Bourbon War in Fountain of youth 50 QUALIFY point race? Candy Ride (ARG) Spreightstown pedigree 114 Beyer
4. Plus Que Parfait Finished 2nd to Signalman in November a 10 point qualifier. Won UAE FOR 100 POINTS. Gray Magician ran 2nd? UAE HORSE << competition?
5. Roadster beat Game Winner on April 6th in 100 point qualifier! 4 races == 3-0-1 GRAY or Roan Colt... Quality Road pedigree 112 Beyer
6. By My Standards Goldencents pedigree
7. Maximum Security VERY strong winning by 8 plus lengths never trailed and Won Florida Derby beating Code of Honor/Bodemeister…. New Years Day/Street Cry (IRELAND) pedigree
8. Game Winner To me, this is the stand out horse of the group - it also has Bob Baffert as trainer, but this horse has made much more money than any of the others - 4 starts and 4 wins NOW 6 starts 4 wins EARLY DERBY FAVORITE Has won a few but noticed they were 20 point qualifier wins finishing 2nd/3rd in 100/50 point qualifiers? Finished 2nd.... Time 1:42?? >> for 1 1/16 Omaha Beach winner...…. Problem loading when finished 2nd against Omaha Beach?? Reason for loading problem?? 117 Beyer
9. Code of Honor 3rd behind Maximus Security/Bodexpress in Florida Derby... Noble Mission (gb) Galieo Ireland pedigree
10. Haikal Pedigree??
11. Improbable A Kentucky horse, partially owned by WinStar Farm - this is my second choice - also trained by Bob Baffert - 3 starts and 3 wins - a good amount of winnings. Finished strong 2nd behind Omaha Beach at Arkansas Derby... City Zip/A P Indy pedigree... Improbable's sire is a Grade 1-winning sprinter, but not the type to win at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles BUT did finish a strong 2nd at Arkansas Derby??
12. War of Will A Kentucky horse with good earnings but hasn’t won as high a percentage of his races - needs to become more consistent. Won a 10 point Qualifier Strong 2 wide move helped win Feb 16th beat Country House Not challenged, competition? Never got out early at Fairgrounds was caught in traffic Beyer 117
13. Long Range Toddy No show in slop weekend April 13th 14 lenghts behind Omaha?? 1st at Remington?? 2nd at Smarty jones to Gray Attempt 3rd in another 10 point qualifier then Strong!!! 1st beating Improbale in Rebel March 16th >>> A P Indy/Un-bridiled Song pedigree
14. Tax ??
15. Cutting Humor First Samurai/Giants Causeway/Pulpit pedigree
16. Win Win Win good start but I’m not impressed yet... Lose Lose Lose
17. Country House ??
18. Gray Magician ??
19. Spinoff ??
20. Master Fencer (Japan qualifier) ??
2. Omaha Beach... Could be DA winner! Arkansas Derby winner beat Improbable/Country House pulling away at end. Won Rebel Stakes beating Game Winner and Gunmetal Gray. Danzig/War Front pedigree.. Beyer 119
3. Vekoma A Kentucky horse - looking good - 2 starts and 2 wins with good earnings Won 4-6 Prep BEAT Signalman/Win-Win-Win and Somelikeithotbrown 100 point qualifier. Finished 3rd behind Code of Honor/Bourbon War in Fountain of youth 50 QUALIFY point race? Candy Ride (ARG) Spreightstown pedigree 114 Beyer
4. Plus Que Parfait Finished 2nd to Signalman in November a 10 point qualifier. Won UAE FOR 100 POINTS. Gray Magician ran 2nd? UAE HORSE << competition?
5. Roadster beat Game Winner on April 6th in 100 point qualifier! 4 races == 3-0-1 GRAY or Roan Colt... Quality Road pedigree 112 Beyer
6. By My Standards Goldencents pedigree
7. Maximum Security VERY strong winning by 8 plus lengths never trailed and Won Florida Derby beating Code of Honor/Bodemeister…. New Years Day/Street Cry (IRELAND) pedigree
8. Game Winner To me, this is the stand out horse of the group - it also has Bob Baffert as trainer, but this horse has made much more money than any of the others - 4 starts and 4 wins NOW 6 starts 4 wins EARLY DERBY FAVORITE Has won a few but noticed they were 20 point qualifier wins finishing 2nd/3rd in 100/50 point qualifiers? Finished 2nd.... Time 1:42?? >> for 1 1/16 Omaha Beach winner...…. Problem loading when finished 2nd against Omaha Beach?? Reason for loading problem?? 117 Beyer
9. Code of Honor 3rd behind Maximus Security/Bodexpress in Florida Derby... Noble Mission (gb) Galieo Ireland pedigree
10. Haikal Pedigree??
11. Improbable A Kentucky horse, partially owned by WinStar Farm - this is my second choice - also trained by Bob Baffert - 3 starts and 3 wins - a good amount of winnings. Finished strong 2nd behind Omaha Beach at Arkansas Derby... City Zip/A P Indy pedigree... Improbable's sire is a Grade 1-winning sprinter, but not the type to win at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles BUT did finish a strong 2nd at Arkansas Derby??
12. War of Will A Kentucky horse with good earnings but hasn’t won as high a percentage of his races - needs to become more consistent. Won a 10 point Qualifier Strong 2 wide move helped win Feb 16th beat Country House Not challenged, competition? Never got out early at Fairgrounds was caught in traffic Beyer 117
13. Long Range Toddy No show in slop weekend April 13th 14 lenghts behind Omaha?? 1st at Remington?? 2nd at Smarty jones to Gray Attempt 3rd in another 10 point qualifier then Strong!!! 1st beating Improbale in Rebel March 16th >>> A P Indy/Un-bridiled Song pedigree
14. Tax ??
15. Cutting Humor First Samurai/Giants Causeway/Pulpit pedigree
16. Win Win Win good start but I’m not impressed yet... Lose Lose Lose
17. Country House ??
18. Gray Magician ??
19. Spinoff ??
20. Master Fencer (Japan qualifier) ??
[h=1]Louisville, KY 10 Day Weather[/h]8:09 am EDT
Print
LOOKS LIKE WE BETTER HANDICAP FOR SLOPPY CONDITIONS -
| DAY | DESCRIPTION | HIGH / LOW | PRECIP | WIND | HUMIDITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TODAY MAY 1 | Mostly Cloudy | 84[SUP]°[/SUP]65[SUP]°[/SUP] | 20% | SSW 18 mph | 55% |
| THU MAY 2 | Scattered Thunderstorms | 82[SUP]°[/SUP]64[SUP]°[/SUP] | 60% | SSW 11 mph | 71% |
| FRI MAY 3 | AM Thunderstorms | 75[SUP]°[/SUP]60[SUP]°[/SUP] | 50% | W 7 mph | 76% |
| SAT MAY 4 | Rain | 68[SUP]°[/SUP]52[SUP]°[/SUP] | 100% | NNE 9 mph | 79% |
| SUN MAY 5 | Mostly Sunny | 74[SUP]°[/SUP]55[SUP]°[/SUP] | 10% | NNW 6 mph | 59% |
[h=3]
• Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 70% of the 20 available slots taken up by them.
• For the first time in many, many years, in 2015 the Derby trifecta was made up of no closers.
• At least two closer/deep closers hit the superfecta in nine of the past 10 editions (90%) of the Kentucky Derby. Four of 10 races (40%) featured three or more closer types hitting the top four positions.
• 30% of the second-place finishers were comprised of tiring pace/presser types.
• In 2016, Nyquist was the first pace type to win the Kentucky Derby in the past 14 years. Always Dreaming repeated this pattern in 2017, and Justify made it three in a row last year.
• In every year except 2015 and 2016, at least one 20-1+ longshot has hit the superfecta (Danzig Moon did finish fifth at 22-1 in the 2015 Derby and Suddenbreakingnews finished fifth at 24-1 in 2016).
• 75% of the 20-1+ board hitters were closers/deep closers, so if you're looking for a big longshot, you want to focus on that type of runner.
• The fourth-place slot yielded eight 20-1+ bombers in the past 15 years.
[/h]
Historical trends
• Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, closers/deep closers accounted for 25 of the slots, or 60%.
[/h][h=3]• Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, closers/deep closers accounted for 25 of the slots, or 60%.
• Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 70% of the 20 available slots taken up by them.
• For the first time in many, many years, in 2015 the Derby trifecta was made up of no closers.
• At least two closer/deep closers hit the superfecta in nine of the past 10 editions (90%) of the Kentucky Derby. Four of 10 races (40%) featured three or more closer types hitting the top four positions.
• 30% of the second-place finishers were comprised of tiring pace/presser types.
• In 2016, Nyquist was the first pace type to win the Kentucky Derby in the past 14 years. Always Dreaming repeated this pattern in 2017, and Justify made it three in a row last year.
• In every year except 2015 and 2016, at least one 20-1+ longshot has hit the superfecta (Danzig Moon did finish fifth at 22-1 in the 2015 Derby and Suddenbreakingnews finished fifth at 24-1 in 2016).
• 75% of the 20-1+ board hitters were closers/deep closers, so if you're looking for a big longshot, you want to focus on that type of runner.
• The fourth-place slot yielded eight 20-1+ bombers in the past 15 years.
[/h]
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=12¶m1=4080¶m2=272¶m3=1623276
UPDATED WITH POST POSITIONS
not working let me try again
UPDATED WITH POST POSITIONS
not working let me try again
http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm
Previous thread link is jacked up, this is better, go to this link scroll down to todd pletcher PP's, next page scroll down a little to cutting humor section move to right 12th race Ultimate PP's- should appear
Previous thread link is jacked up, this is better, go to this link scroll down to todd pletcher PP's, next page scroll down a little to cutting humor section move to right 12th race Ultimate PP's- should appear
Comments from the trainers after the post positions were announced. https://www.paulickreport.com/news/...beach-draws-post-12-for-145th-kentucky-derby/
Comments from Kentucky Derby connections:
MARK CASSE (WAR OF WILL, POST 1, 20-1) – “You know what, it could be worse I think. Our horse is really on his game so he'll come away from there running. We'll probably be on the lead. I think we'll probably be on the lead and play catch me if you can. And you know if we come away from there like he normally does, we're going to come away from there running. At least we have the shortest way around. I've thought I had great draws before and gotten wiped out so maybe this is the change.”
DANNY GARGAN (TAX, POST 2, 20-1) – “I wanted to be on the inside. He's been in the one hole three times with two wins and a second. He has tactical speed. Now we won't have to use him much to lay fourth or fifth in the race. I like the horse inside us [War of Will] because he's a speed horse. Hopefully he goes. I want to tuck in behind him and sit on the rail. If he doesn't go, I'm going to come out running and sit on the rail.”
BRET CALHOUN (BY MY STANDARDS, POST 3, 20-1) – “Gabe (jockey Gabriel Saez) said he wanted somewhere between post five and 12. We drew three but it is close enough. I'm glad we didn't draw the rail or post 20.”
PETER MILLER (GRAY MAGICIAN, POST 4, 50-1) – “It shouldn't be a problem. We plan on taking back early.”
BOB BAFFERT (GAME WINNER, POST 16, 5-1; IMPROBABLE, POST 5, 6-1; ROADSTER, POST 17, 6-1) – “They'll all be easy to watch. With Roadster I wanted the 16 so I got 16 and 17 (with Game Winner) and Improbable is a quicker horse. Anything but the one or two I'm fine with that. I think the good horses all drew well.”
(On post 17 being 0-for-40) “They also had that curse last year. Not that many horses run out of there but I'm OK. We'll figure out a plan for them. I think Improbable he's the quickest of the three and he's in the five. There are speed horses outside of him, too. They still have to break. I like 16. The 17 has been 0-for-40, but it's like AmericanPharoah had the 18 and there was a scratch and he had the 17 for a day then he went to the 16. At the end of the day, you have to have the horse. If your horse shows up, that's more important. After watching Big Brown gallop from the 20 hole it really doesn't make a difference.”
“I think it's less stressful (not having the favorite). I think the expectations when you have the favorite is put on you but I think when I had the favorite with Pharoah or Justify, it was their race to lose. There are a lot of nice horses in this race. Omaha Beach, he deserves to be the favorite. We'll just see how it plays out.”
GEORGE WEAVER (VEKOMA, POST 6, 20-1) – “This is a perfect spot. We wanted somewhere between post five and 10 and we got a great spot. I'm happy to be back in Louisville.”
JASON SERVIS (MAXIMUM SECURITY, POST 7, 10-1) – Trainer was driving to Louisville and unavailable for comment.
BILL MOTT (COUNTRY HOUSE, POST 20, 30-1; TACITUS, POST 8, 10-1) – “I was hoping for the middle and that's what we got. I've no complaints (for Tacitus). “Twenty should be fine for (Country House). He's going to come from far back.
BRENDAN WALSH (PLUS QUE PARFAIT, POST 9, 30-1) – “I wanted something between two and 12, which I said earlier this week, and that's what we got. Hopefully he breaks and then can save some ground. It looks like the speed is inside of us, so that's good. I'm happy with the post.”
TODD PLETCHER (CUTTING HUMOR, POST 10, 30-1; SPINOFF, POST 19, 30-1) – “I'm satisfied with both. I don't mind being outside with Spinoff since he hasn't experienced a lot of kickback. And with Cutting Humor from the 10, Corey (jockey Corey Lanerie) should have plenty of options. Neither should have to spend a lot of time in the gate, too.”
KIARAN MCLAUGHLIN (HAIKAL, POST 11, 30-1) – “He loads first, which is the only negative, but otherwise it's a great post.”
RICHARD MANDELLA (OMAHA BEACH, POST 12, 4-1) – Jockey Mike Smith and Mandella (Sitting together) – Smith: “Perfect. I love it. Didn't want to be down inside. I think I'm in a great spot.” Mandella: “He's happy (nodding toward Smith), so you know I'm happy. It's good.”
SHUG MCGAUGHEY (CODE OF HONOR, POST 13, 15-1) – “It's perfect for me. I was hoping for something toward the outside. I think they load from the inside out. I just didn't want to be buried down on the inside. It's perfect.”
MIKE TROMBETTA (WIN WIN WIN, POST 14, 15-1) – “It was a lot less pressure this year than 2006 when we were the favorite. We had so many cameras and media around us that it's a little bit, but not much, more relaxing this year. I'm happy with our post. We're ready to go.”
KOICHI TSUNODA (MASTER FENCER, POST 15, 50-1) – “We are lucky not to have the 20. Horses have won from the outside gate. We are happy to be in the race. The (post position) is good.”
MIKE TROMBETTA (WIN WIN WIN, POST 14, 15-1) – “It was a lot less pressure this year than 2006 when we were the favorite Sweetnorthernsaint. We had so many cameras and media around us that it's a little bit, but not much, more relaxing this year. I'm happy with our post. We're ready to go.”
KOICHI TSUNODA (MASTER FENCER, POST 15, 50-1) – “We are lucky not to have the 20. Horses have won from the outside gate. We are happy to be in the race. The (post position) is good.”
WILLIS HORTON (OWNER, LONG RANGE TODDY, POST 18, 30-1) – “It wasn't what I wanted, but it will be all right. He has enough tactical speed out of the gate. As long as he breaks good, he'll have a quarter mile until the first turn to get himself into position. We'll probably be sitting right right behind the speed.”
Comments from Kentucky Derby connections:
MARK CASSE (WAR OF WILL, POST 1, 20-1) – “You know what, it could be worse I think. Our horse is really on his game so he'll come away from there running. We'll probably be on the lead. I think we'll probably be on the lead and play catch me if you can. And you know if we come away from there like he normally does, we're going to come away from there running. At least we have the shortest way around. I've thought I had great draws before and gotten wiped out so maybe this is the change.”
DANNY GARGAN (TAX, POST 2, 20-1) – “I wanted to be on the inside. He's been in the one hole three times with two wins and a second. He has tactical speed. Now we won't have to use him much to lay fourth or fifth in the race. I like the horse inside us [War of Will] because he's a speed horse. Hopefully he goes. I want to tuck in behind him and sit on the rail. If he doesn't go, I'm going to come out running and sit on the rail.”
BRET CALHOUN (BY MY STANDARDS, POST 3, 20-1) – “Gabe (jockey Gabriel Saez) said he wanted somewhere between post five and 12. We drew three but it is close enough. I'm glad we didn't draw the rail or post 20.”
PETER MILLER (GRAY MAGICIAN, POST 4, 50-1) – “It shouldn't be a problem. We plan on taking back early.”
BOB BAFFERT (GAME WINNER, POST 16, 5-1; IMPROBABLE, POST 5, 6-1; ROADSTER, POST 17, 6-1) – “They'll all be easy to watch. With Roadster I wanted the 16 so I got 16 and 17 (with Game Winner) and Improbable is a quicker horse. Anything but the one or two I'm fine with that. I think the good horses all drew well.”
(On post 17 being 0-for-40) “They also had that curse last year. Not that many horses run out of there but I'm OK. We'll figure out a plan for them. I think Improbable he's the quickest of the three and he's in the five. There are speed horses outside of him, too. They still have to break. I like 16. The 17 has been 0-for-40, but it's like AmericanPharoah had the 18 and there was a scratch and he had the 17 for a day then he went to the 16. At the end of the day, you have to have the horse. If your horse shows up, that's more important. After watching Big Brown gallop from the 20 hole it really doesn't make a difference.”
“I think it's less stressful (not having the favorite). I think the expectations when you have the favorite is put on you but I think when I had the favorite with Pharoah or Justify, it was their race to lose. There are a lot of nice horses in this race. Omaha Beach, he deserves to be the favorite. We'll just see how it plays out.”
GEORGE WEAVER (VEKOMA, POST 6, 20-1) – “This is a perfect spot. We wanted somewhere between post five and 10 and we got a great spot. I'm happy to be back in Louisville.”
JASON SERVIS (MAXIMUM SECURITY, POST 7, 10-1) – Trainer was driving to Louisville and unavailable for comment.
BILL MOTT (COUNTRY HOUSE, POST 20, 30-1; TACITUS, POST 8, 10-1) – “I was hoping for the middle and that's what we got. I've no complaints (for Tacitus). “Twenty should be fine for (Country House). He's going to come from far back.
BRENDAN WALSH (PLUS QUE PARFAIT, POST 9, 30-1) – “I wanted something between two and 12, which I said earlier this week, and that's what we got. Hopefully he breaks and then can save some ground. It looks like the speed is inside of us, so that's good. I'm happy with the post.”
TODD PLETCHER (CUTTING HUMOR, POST 10, 30-1; SPINOFF, POST 19, 30-1) – “I'm satisfied with both. I don't mind being outside with Spinoff since he hasn't experienced a lot of kickback. And with Cutting Humor from the 10, Corey (jockey Corey Lanerie) should have plenty of options. Neither should have to spend a lot of time in the gate, too.”
KIARAN MCLAUGHLIN (HAIKAL, POST 11, 30-1) – “He loads first, which is the only negative, but otherwise it's a great post.”
RICHARD MANDELLA (OMAHA BEACH, POST 12, 4-1) – Jockey Mike Smith and Mandella (Sitting together) – Smith: “Perfect. I love it. Didn't want to be down inside. I think I'm in a great spot.” Mandella: “He's happy (nodding toward Smith), so you know I'm happy. It's good.”
SHUG MCGAUGHEY (CODE OF HONOR, POST 13, 15-1) – “It's perfect for me. I was hoping for something toward the outside. I think they load from the inside out. I just didn't want to be buried down on the inside. It's perfect.”
MIKE TROMBETTA (WIN WIN WIN, POST 14, 15-1) – “It was a lot less pressure this year than 2006 when we were the favorite. We had so many cameras and media around us that it's a little bit, but not much, more relaxing this year. I'm happy with our post. We're ready to go.”
KOICHI TSUNODA (MASTER FENCER, POST 15, 50-1) – “We are lucky not to have the 20. Horses have won from the outside gate. We are happy to be in the race. The (post position) is good.”
MIKE TROMBETTA (WIN WIN WIN, POST 14, 15-1) – “It was a lot less pressure this year than 2006 when we were the favorite Sweetnorthernsaint. We had so many cameras and media around us that it's a little bit, but not much, more relaxing this year. I'm happy with our post. We're ready to go.”
KOICHI TSUNODA (MASTER FENCER, POST 15, 50-1) – “We are lucky not to have the 20. Horses have won from the outside gate. We are happy to be in the race. The (post position) is good.”
WILLIS HORTON (OWNER, LONG RANGE TODDY, POST 18, 30-1) – “It wasn't what I wanted, but it will be all right. He has enough tactical speed out of the gate. As long as he breaks good, he'll have a quarter mile until the first turn to get himself into position. We'll probably be sitting right right behind the speed.”
If the weather contributes to sloppy/muddy track conditions, based on priors, the following contenders love the wet-stuff: War of Will; By My Standards; Plus Que Parfait.
For what it is worth, I'll have them along with Game Winner, Code of Honor, and Tacticus in a $1 trifecta box for a total cost of $120. Additionally, I'll wager another $1 and set up a trifecta key with Game Winner as the Key over War, Standards, Plus, Code, Tacticus, and Max Security for a total cost of $42.
Overall, despite them being co-second, I don't believe Roadster and Improbable are designed for such a race.
Whatever you do, as always, best of luck, have fun, and may all your horses run true!
For what it is worth, I'll have them along with Game Winner, Code of Honor, and Tacticus in a $1 trifecta box for a total cost of $120. Additionally, I'll wager another $1 and set up a trifecta key with Game Winner as the Key over War, Standards, Plus, Code, Tacticus, and Max Security for a total cost of $42.
Overall, despite them being co-second, I don't believe Roadster and Improbable are designed for such a race.
Whatever you do, as always, best of luck, have fun, and may all your horses run true!
