[h=1]NBA playoffs: Best bets for every Round 2 series[/h]
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The top seeds in the East didn't have much trouble dispatching their first-round opponents, while the West has been more competitive. So how will teams fare in the conference semifinals? And which ones are worth a wager?
Our experts -- Preston Johnson, Jordan Schultz, Doug Kezirian and Joe Fortenbaugh -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of April 26. As always, shop around for the best price. We'll add Western Conference series to the file as odds are released.
[h=2]Eastern Conference[/h]
[h=3](1) Milwaukee Bucks (-310) vs. (4) Boston Celtics(+250)[/h]Johnson: There are way too many questions for me in this series to get involved before it starts. Are the Bucks ready to make a legitimate leap, or is this just another regular-season Mike Budenholzer darling? How bad were the Pistons without a healthy Blake Griffin? Is Milwaukee as elite as it has seemed? Is Malcolm Brogdon (out the first two games) going to be able to play effectively or even see the floor at all? Will his absence finally catch up to the Bucks in this matchup? Are the Celtics we all anticipated before the regular season started finally here?
My projections for the series have Milwaukee advancing 71.6 percent of the time, or a true line of -252. There isn't any value right now from a numbers perspective, so I won't be forcing anything.
Best bet: Pass for now
Kezirian: I understand some optimism surrounding Boston, given last year's run to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. However, I disagree with the series price. The Bucks have been incredibly dominant this season. A team with home-court advantage that is rated high enough to be favored by 7.5 points in Game 1 sure feels like value opening at -275 for the series. In my eyes, Boston took care of business against Indiana. Nothing more. And the Celtics will be in for a rude awakening if they play similar defense.
Milwaukee will make them pay for sloppy perimeter rotations; Indiana shot just 32.6 percent on "wide-open shots" (no defender within 6 feet). The Bucks were the most dominant team during the regular season and I side with them here, even though I am a giant fan of Brad Stevens.
Pick: Bucks -310
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Schultz: With an MVP front-runner in Giannis Antetokounmpo (who just won his first postseason series), the Bucks have excelled operating Mike Budenholzer's patented four-out, one-in system. The free-flowing, more spaced-out floor has helped unlock the Greek Freak's electric playmaking abilities and in turn provided an ample dose of clean looks from 3-point range for knockdown shooters Khris Middleton, Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez, Ersan Ilyasova and Brogdon (who is out for at least Games 1 and 2).
The Bucks rank first in the league with their +8.47 net rating, per Basketball Reference (four whole points better than the Celtics), and the Celtics should win a game or two based on Kyrie Irving's superhuman scoring ability. Make no mistake, however, this is an entirely different series than a year ago, when Boston -- sans Irving and Gordon Hayward -- topped the Bucks in the first round, albeit in seven games. Perhaps the Bucks' most important improvement has come on the defensive end, as Milwaukee, which ranked dead last in opponent shooting percentage at the rim last season, ranks first this season (63 percent).
No team in pro basketball defends the rim better than Giannis & Co. No team defends the paint better, either.
That is a major issue for the always attacking Irving and an even bigger problem for the Celtics. The Bucks want to exact a bit of revenge, and the likely league MVP will ensure that is exactly what happens.
Pick: Bucks -310
[h=3](2) Toronto Raptors (-260) vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers (+210)[/h]Johnson: I give Brett Brown and the Sixers credit for making necessary tactical adjustments offensively after getting beat up at home in Game 1 against the Brooklyn Nets. They took advantage of their edge inside and attacked the rim relentlessly, as opposed to relying on their 3-point attempts going down.
The Nets, however, were doing their best to protect the paint with the likes of Jarrett Allen, Jared Dudley, Ed Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Toronto will be in much better shape protecting with Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam and Kawhi Leonard. The Raptors have more impactful players on both sides of the ball to throw at the Sixers (plus Joel Embiid's health is a concern), and my projections have Toronto advancing 72.5 percent of the time (or -264). At -200 (implied 66.7 percent win probability), this was a sizable edge worth betting. This price has gotten more expensive at Westgate, but there are cheaper alternatives for those on the Raptors.
Pick: Raptors -220
Kezirian: Even after a 4-1 series win, Philadelphia remains a mystery. Injuries to Embiid and the in-season acquisitions of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris have prevented this lineup from starting more than 14 games together, which is just remarkable. Toronto has unleashed Kawhi Leonard in these playoffs, and this team looks like it has all the makings of a conference champion. Rebounding is somewhat of a weakness, ranking in the middle of the pack. The Sixers could exploit that, assuming Embiid is healthy. I do think Philly is a live underdog, but I could not bet them without certainty around Embiid.
Pick: Raptors -220
Schultz: Toronto is the more complete team with the most complete player in Leonard, who was sensational against a stout Magic defense. Flanked on the wing by an emerging star in Pascal Siakam (22.6 PPG, 53.3 percent vs Orlando), he has an ideal running mate who excels off the ball as both a cutter and finisher. Embiid will have his hands full with former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol -- whose main responsibility will be to wear him down -- while the Raptors are one of the few teams that can send an assortment of high-level perimeter defenders with size (Leonard, Siakam, Danny Green and Norman Powell) at both Butler and Harris. Are we so certain that Embiid is fully healthy -- or close enough to it -- to deal with the NBA's second-ranked defense?
Pick: Raptors -220
Fortenbaugh: Every team at this stage of the season is talented. What truly separates the contenders from the pretenders is a detail-oriented approach and ability to win in the margins. That's why I love the Raptors to hammer the Sixers in the Eastern semis. Just look at how Toronto adjusted to that Game 1 upset loss to Orlando. The Raptors surrendered 104 points in that defeat and went on to permit an average of just 89 points over their next four games with the Magic.
Philly is too emotional, too inconsistent and struggles mightily to close out games under Brown. Additionally, Toronto ranked third in the NBA this season in net rating when playing on the road (4.5), while the Sixers ranked 16th (-2.5). That's significant when you consider the fact that Toronto holds home court in this series.
Pick: Raptors -220
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The top seeds in the East didn't have much trouble dispatching their first-round opponents, while the West has been more competitive. So how will teams fare in the conference semifinals? And which ones are worth a wager?
Our experts -- Preston Johnson, Jordan Schultz, Doug Kezirian and Joe Fortenbaugh -- are here to help, giving their best bets for the second round of the NBA playoffs.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of April 26. As always, shop around for the best price. We'll add Western Conference series to the file as odds are released.
[h=3](1) Milwaukee Bucks (-310) vs. (4) Boston Celtics(+250)[/h]Johnson: There are way too many questions for me in this series to get involved before it starts. Are the Bucks ready to make a legitimate leap, or is this just another regular-season Mike Budenholzer darling? How bad were the Pistons without a healthy Blake Griffin? Is Milwaukee as elite as it has seemed? Is Malcolm Brogdon (out the first two games) going to be able to play effectively or even see the floor at all? Will his absence finally catch up to the Bucks in this matchup? Are the Celtics we all anticipated before the regular season started finally here?
My projections for the series have Milwaukee advancing 71.6 percent of the time, or a true line of -252. There isn't any value right now from a numbers perspective, so I won't be forcing anything.
Best bet: Pass for now
Kezirian: I understand some optimism surrounding Boston, given last year's run to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals. However, I disagree with the series price. The Bucks have been incredibly dominant this season. A team with home-court advantage that is rated high enough to be favored by 7.5 points in Game 1 sure feels like value opening at -275 for the series. In my eyes, Boston took care of business against Indiana. Nothing more. And the Celtics will be in for a rude awakening if they play similar defense.
Milwaukee will make them pay for sloppy perimeter rotations; Indiana shot just 32.6 percent on "wide-open shots" (no defender within 6 feet). The Bucks were the most dominant team during the regular season and I side with them here, even though I am a giant fan of Brad Stevens.
Pick: Bucks -310
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Schultz: With an MVP front-runner in Giannis Antetokounmpo (who just won his first postseason series), the Bucks have excelled operating Mike Budenholzer's patented four-out, one-in system. The free-flowing, more spaced-out floor has helped unlock the Greek Freak's electric playmaking abilities and in turn provided an ample dose of clean looks from 3-point range for knockdown shooters Khris Middleton, Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez, Ersan Ilyasova and Brogdon (who is out for at least Games 1 and 2).
The Bucks rank first in the league with their +8.47 net rating, per Basketball Reference (four whole points better than the Celtics), and the Celtics should win a game or two based on Kyrie Irving's superhuman scoring ability. Make no mistake, however, this is an entirely different series than a year ago, when Boston -- sans Irving and Gordon Hayward -- topped the Bucks in the first round, albeit in seven games. Perhaps the Bucks' most important improvement has come on the defensive end, as Milwaukee, which ranked dead last in opponent shooting percentage at the rim last season, ranks first this season (63 percent).
No team in pro basketball defends the rim better than Giannis & Co. No team defends the paint better, either.
That is a major issue for the always attacking Irving and an even bigger problem for the Celtics. The Bucks want to exact a bit of revenge, and the likely league MVP will ensure that is exactly what happens.
Pick: Bucks -310
[h=3](2) Toronto Raptors (-260) vs. (3) Philadelphia 76ers (+210)[/h]Johnson: I give Brett Brown and the Sixers credit for making necessary tactical adjustments offensively after getting beat up at home in Game 1 against the Brooklyn Nets. They took advantage of their edge inside and attacked the rim relentlessly, as opposed to relying on their 3-point attempts going down.
The Nets, however, were doing their best to protect the paint with the likes of Jarrett Allen, Jared Dudley, Ed Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Toronto will be in much better shape protecting with Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam and Kawhi Leonard. The Raptors have more impactful players on both sides of the ball to throw at the Sixers (plus Joel Embiid's health is a concern), and my projections have Toronto advancing 72.5 percent of the time (or -264). At -200 (implied 66.7 percent win probability), this was a sizable edge worth betting. This price has gotten more expensive at Westgate, but there are cheaper alternatives for those on the Raptors.
Pick: Raptors -220
Kezirian: Even after a 4-1 series win, Philadelphia remains a mystery. Injuries to Embiid and the in-season acquisitions of Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris have prevented this lineup from starting more than 14 games together, which is just remarkable. Toronto has unleashed Kawhi Leonard in these playoffs, and this team looks like it has all the makings of a conference champion. Rebounding is somewhat of a weakness, ranking in the middle of the pack. The Sixers could exploit that, assuming Embiid is healthy. I do think Philly is a live underdog, but I could not bet them without certainty around Embiid.
Pick: Raptors -220
Schultz: Toronto is the more complete team with the most complete player in Leonard, who was sensational against a stout Magic defense. Flanked on the wing by an emerging star in Pascal Siakam (22.6 PPG, 53.3 percent vs Orlando), he has an ideal running mate who excels off the ball as both a cutter and finisher. Embiid will have his hands full with former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol -- whose main responsibility will be to wear him down -- while the Raptors are one of the few teams that can send an assortment of high-level perimeter defenders with size (Leonard, Siakam, Danny Green and Norman Powell) at both Butler and Harris. Are we so certain that Embiid is fully healthy -- or close enough to it -- to deal with the NBA's second-ranked defense?
Pick: Raptors -220
Fortenbaugh: Every team at this stage of the season is talented. What truly separates the contenders from the pretenders is a detail-oriented approach and ability to win in the margins. That's why I love the Raptors to hammer the Sixers in the Eastern semis. Just look at how Toronto adjusted to that Game 1 upset loss to Orlando. The Raptors surrendered 104 points in that defeat and went on to permit an average of just 89 points over their next four games with the Magic.
Philly is too emotional, too inconsistent and struggles mightily to close out games under Brown. Additionally, Toronto ranked third in the NBA this season in net rating when playing on the road (4.5), while the Sixers ranked 16th (-2.5). That's significant when you consider the fact that Toronto holds home court in this series.
Pick: Raptors -220
