Rockets have been salivating for nearly a year, hearing nothing but the lost opportunity being up 12 at halftime in game 7 at home, without Chris Paul and it took 27-straight missed 3's for them to lose. I just re-watched that game and it was an amazing blow up. Capela's Q&A yesterday was telling - they want and need to take down the alpha dog before reaching their ultimate goal. Historically, the NBA has seen this pattern before - Lakers had to lose to the Celts before reaching the top - Sixers with the Lakers, Pistons with the Lakers, Jordan with the Pistons, Mavs with the Heat, etc. Warriors have ended the Rockets season 4 out of the last 5 years and none in more devastating fashion as last year. You face a team enough times, you bully a kid enough times, eventually, the tables will turn, Harden and Paul will finally get the monkey off their back... so that is one theory.
For the Dubs, they are in new territory, trying to be the first team to make 5 straight finals since the Celtics in the 60's. Not LeBron. Not Jordan. No Lakers have ever done that. It's actually impressive they haven't had more lapses like you saw in Game 2 v. Clips or in many head scratching instances during the regular season. To put things in perspective, due to all the title runs the last four years, they have played an entire extra SEASON's worth of games versus a team that hasn't made the playoffs at all. It shows, not just in W/L column, but in the intangibles, the public dissension, the intimidation factor. Combined with injuries, fatigue, aging, and lack of motivation, Father time is undefeated - the only question is when and who will end the run, and Houston is as good a bet as any this year.
Houston defeated GSW 3 out of 4 four times in the regular season - all the games were close and the one warrior victory was made easier largely because of DMC dominating the paint v. Capela, but that obviously won't happen now that DMC is out for the playoffs. There is no mistaking - Houston is as confident as it has ever been - they are healthy, and playing well. They don't have home court this year, but they know that only matters if you reach a game 7. They also know how critical it is to take at least 1 of the first 2 games - and I believe that will happen.
GSW has been historically great at bouncing back and playing best when their backs are against the wall (Game 6/7 v OKC in 2016, Game 7 v Hou in 2018), and especially after a loss. However, they are also wildly inconsistent, seemingly losing focus at the worst possible moments, and typically when things are sailing. It's hard for me to see their A Game for the entire series - particularly on the defensive end (which takes the most energy). Game 1 will also be challenging for GSW having less than 48 hrs. rest and both Splash Bros tweaking their ankles. Make no mistake, if Curry takes the floor, they will target him on switches every time to either get him in foul trouble and/or have Harden score at will.
That said, I will gladly take the 6 points and post an equal ML +210 in Game 1. If they win, great. If they lose, I will at least double-down on game 2.
For the Dubs, they are in new territory, trying to be the first team to make 5 straight finals since the Celtics in the 60's. Not LeBron. Not Jordan. No Lakers have ever done that. It's actually impressive they haven't had more lapses like you saw in Game 2 v. Clips or in many head scratching instances during the regular season. To put things in perspective, due to all the title runs the last four years, they have played an entire extra SEASON's worth of games versus a team that hasn't made the playoffs at all. It shows, not just in W/L column, but in the intangibles, the public dissension, the intimidation factor. Combined with injuries, fatigue, aging, and lack of motivation, Father time is undefeated - the only question is when and who will end the run, and Houston is as good a bet as any this year.
Houston defeated GSW 3 out of 4 four times in the regular season - all the games were close and the one warrior victory was made easier largely because of DMC dominating the paint v. Capela, but that obviously won't happen now that DMC is out for the playoffs. There is no mistaking - Houston is as confident as it has ever been - they are healthy, and playing well. They don't have home court this year, but they know that only matters if you reach a game 7. They also know how critical it is to take at least 1 of the first 2 games - and I believe that will happen.
GSW has been historically great at bouncing back and playing best when their backs are against the wall (Game 6/7 v OKC in 2016, Game 7 v Hou in 2018), and especially after a loss. However, they are also wildly inconsistent, seemingly losing focus at the worst possible moments, and typically when things are sailing. It's hard for me to see their A Game for the entire series - particularly on the defensive end (which takes the most energy). Game 1 will also be challenging for GSW having less than 48 hrs. rest and both Splash Bros tweaking their ankles. Make no mistake, if Curry takes the floor, they will target him on switches every time to either get him in foul trouble and/or have Harden score at will.
That said, I will gladly take the 6 points and post an equal ML +210 in Game 1. If they win, great. If they lose, I will at least double-down on game 2.
