Worst HOME Teams ATS last year

cloverleaf · Apr 28, 2019

These teams were absolutely awful playing at home for a betting man during
the 2018 season. Talk about flushing money down the toilet.

Louisville 1-6
Michigan State 1-6
Tennessee 1-6
Wake Forest 1-6
San Diego State 1-6
South Florida 1-6

Heading into the 2019 season, do you have any angles, trends, suggestions or
thoughts on how to wager these 2018 home money burners?

MackDonald · Apr 28, 2019

Clover, we both know that many "betting men" have a tendency to wager on teams (for or against) based on the teams past weeks performance......This is a bad mind-set when handicapping a team the following week......Las Vegas is a clever lot.

How this would play out using a full seasons results will be interesting to see.......(I plan to follow these 1-6 teams against the spread that you mentioned above.
I guess ending up 3-4 would be a big improvement but not big-enough for us "sports fans"...........LOL

cloverleaf · Apr 28, 2019

Mack, I love to research (experiment with) different situations in sports, especially
football. Last year I found a situation with NFL Totals and had my best year betting
NFL in 10 years. I very seldom bet NFL Sides the whole season. Even won the RX
NFL Totals Contest last year.

I'm always looking for a winning angle in college football...I enjoy doing it and on
occasion stumble onto something that helps me win some money.

Poor Tennessee has been a disaster when playing at home ATS the past two seasons.
Try 2-11 against the spread. The Vols only covered once in 2017 and once in 2018.

Nebraska was 0-7 ATS home in 2017, but recovered some to go 3-4 in 2018. USC
is 2-5 and 2-4 the past two seasons a money burning 4-9 for a bettor. Kentucky
had its best season in years but was only 2-5 ATS at home (3-10 past 2 years).

Like I said, I enjoy researching this kind of stuff. Hopefully I'll find something that
will help make 2019 a rewarding season. If you come up with something that looks
good, let me know and I'll take a look. Thanks Mack.

VegasKnows · Apr 28, 2019

I think each team listed ended up underachieving for their own various reasons. Too situational to lump into one.

Take Michigan State; First game Utah State with Love at QB, MSU was -23.5. Line too big with a good QB like Love.
Then it was injury after injury. The O-line, RB, WR's. QB Lewerke was dinged up too. MSU scored only two offensive TD's in their last four games, both against Rutgers.
I made some good $$ betting against MSU and taking the under in several games in 2018. But that was then, starting over in 2019.

Also, that one home game MSU covered? They were a 2.5 point underdog to Purdue the week after Purdue upsets Ohio State. MSU coming off their lose to the Wolverines. I missed this one, wanted more points.
Ohio State had not covered their last five in a row as they were in a mid season "funk" when they beat the Spartans as 3pt favorites 26-6 in East Lansing. Had that one.

The thing to remember with the Spartan's defense; Primary goal is stop the run.They were #1 in the nation. Teams that pass well do better against MSU.

I do have one interesting trend that I watch after week #1. Post it in few.....

VegasKnows · Apr 28, 2019

Posted this in another forum in 2017;

Interesting Trend; (From what I can find. Maybe missed one?)The last two years when a power 5 team has it's first game end at least 20 points away from the line, whether win or lose, they cover the second game.

last years examples;
-Bama/USC, line Bama -13.5, they win by 46. 46-13.5= 32.5 differential to spread.
Both USC and Bama cover week 2.
-Colorado/Colorado St, Buffs -7. win by 37, a 30 pt diff.
Both teams cover week 2.
Others in 2016;
-Arkansas win by 1pt as 21pt fav, next week cover
-Ohio State wins by 67 as 27.5pt fav, next week covers.
-Miss St loses by 1 as 28pt fav., next week covers.
-Virginia loss by 17 as 13pt fav, cover week 2.

In 2015;
Arizona, Illinois, Mississippi, Stanford, Northwestern, and USC all cover week 2 after winning or losing by 20 or more pts against the spread differential.
Only find Penn State in 2015 not covering after losing to Temple by 17 as a 6 pt fav.

A 14-1 trend last two years.

I remember in 2017 there was maybe two week one P5 games that had a 20+ diff ats, Maryland/Texas and Oregon St/Colorado St. Oregon St failed to cover week #2, the rest did.

In 2018 I see Ohio St/Oregon St, and Virgina Tech/Florida St. Maybe more? Anyways both OSU's covered week 2 and V-Tech covered. FSU didn't in week #2.

VegasKnows · Apr 28, 2019

Throw out Ohio St and Oregon St from last year. The Buckeyes were 40 pt favs!!! They just covered.

VegasKnows · Apr 28, 2019

In 2018 West Virginia beat Tennessee by 26 as a ten pt fav, making the diff. 16 pts. But they both covered week 2.
LSU beat Miami 33-17 as a 3pt dog making the diff. 19 pts. Miami covers week 2 and LSU does not.
Both these game just under the trend criteria.

Hope to see a couple of week 1 P5 matchup blowouts this year and see how this trend continues.

mws · Apr 28, 2019

cloverleaf said:
These teams were absolutely awful playing at home for a betting man during
the 2018 season. Talk about flushing money down the toilet.

Louisville 1-6
Michigan State 1-6
Tennessee 1-6
Wake Forest 1-6
San Diego State 1-6
South Florida 1-6

Heading into the 2019 season, do you have any angles, trends, suggestions or
thoughts on how to wager these 2018 home money burners?

Clawson (Wake Forest) was 30-22-1 ATS at home in his career as an FBS head coach before last year. He had two losing seasons ATS at home (1-3-1 in 2010 and 3-4 in 2016) and bounced back with 4-2 and 5-1 ATS home records in '11 and '17 respectively.

cloverleaf · Apr 29, 2019

Thinking out loud...........

One old standard that has made bettors money. Top 25, play the lower ranked
team if favored over the higher ranked team. One of the first things I look for
every week.

Home teams have won 59.9% of games since 2005, but covered only 48.8%.
Bettors on average, have backed the home team 55.6% of the time.

Best home teams ATS last season: Utah State 6-1, Mississippi State 6-1, Texas A&M 6-1,
Memphis State 6-1. Miss State is 11-3 the past two seasons.

Ever bet coaches? I do...……...

NICK SABAN is 10-1 ATS in season openers coaching Alabama.
(I don't often bet Bama games but I do the first one.)

TOM HARMON is 13-2 as an underdog. Last year at Texas he was 3-1 with the loss being a
rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. He beat Georgia straight up as a 13 point
dog in the Sugar Bowl.
(I'm not a Harmon fan but love him as a money maker when he's an underdog.)

DAVID SHAW is 65-41-2 ATS at Stanford. 7-5-1 last year.
(Worth a look every game every season.)

Welcome your comments...…………....

mws · Apr 30, 2019

NICK SABAN is 10-1 ATS in season openers coaching Alabama.

But that one ATS loss was in 2014, when Bama's prior game was the 45-31 loss to OU preceded by that infamous loss to Auburn. When you'd expect them to be especially fired up to start the season, they weren't.