With Kentucky Derby betting favorites winning the last six “Run for the Roses”, 2019 might finally be the year that the post-time favorite disappoints and the plus-money payouts return – the exact reason horse racing bettors look forward to the Kentucky Derby every single year.
Here’s a horse-by-horse betting breakdown, race predictions and picks, and the best racing bets for this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby odds:
1. War of Will (Jockey – Tyler Gaffalione, 20/1): This long shot won three in a row within the graded stakes ranks before a very disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby last time out. He had an excuse and was a non-factor early after an awkward step. Since that loss, his workouts have been fast and he will try to be forwardly placed. Thankfully, he has enough early speed to overcome the difficult inside post.
2. Tax (Junior Alvarado, 20/1): He ran second best to the eventual Wood Memorial Winner in Tacitus in his most recent showing. He’s another runner that likes to be close to the front end, and has never been farther back than third in any start during his four career races. Speed wise, he’s quick, but it was only four starts ago that he was claimed while racing against maiden company. If he can take advantage of the inside post, he should be placed within the first group of runners entering the first turn.
3. By My Standards (Gabriel Saez, 20/1): He’s coming off a win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby producing the upset at 22/1 odds. He did well in his first start versus stakes competition, albeit a very weak field. Competing against some of the top horses with a lack of experience will be a tough task for this runner, who could find himself in a good position to take advantage of an advantageous trip.
4. Gray Magician (Drayden Van Dyke, 50/1): This long shot finished second by three quarters of a length in the UAE Derby. His only win in eight career starts came in a six-furlong sprint against maiden company at Del Mar. In his only graded stakes race, he was not competitive and does not look like he will have much of an impact in the Kentucky Derby at all.
5. Improbable (Irad Ortiz Jr., 6/1): He is arguably trainer Bob Baffert’s best shot at another Derby win as he goes for back-to-back victories and his sixth “Run for the Roses” title. He will likely attempt to work out a stalking trip and has shown a nice late-closing kick. He has been the betting favorite in four of his five career races and will get a lot of attention at the Kentucky Derby betting windows this Saturday. He’s a definite must-have on top and in all slots for your exotic wagers.
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6. Vekoma (Javier Castellano, 20/1): Jockey Javier Castellano is 0 for 12 in the Kentucky Derby with his best finish coming onboard Audible, who finished third last year. This runner with a very unorthodox racing style is coming off a win in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes by three and one quarter lengths on April 6. He’s racing his best when stalking the pace and should be put in a good position to make a competitive run in the deep stretch.
7. Maximum Security (Luis Saez, 10/1): He’s coming off an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby to remain undefeated through four career starts. Speed wise, he’s put forth some very impressive times and has shown a good amount of early speed, which should be useful in securing the front end early. He must avoid a potential pace duel upfront but stay close to the pace where his best efforts have been.
8. Tacitus (Jose Ortiz, 10/1): He has won three straight races and has shown a noticeable improvement speed wise with each career start. With only four career starts, he’s one of the most lightly-raced colts. His racing versatility is a huge asset and he looks to thrive off the gruelling Kentucky Derby distance.
9. Plus Que Parfait (Ricardo Santana Jr., 30/1): He recently won the UAE Derby but outside of that start, has been very disappointing - especially on North American soil where he was not competitive within the graded-stakes ranks. He’s a runner that should benefit from the speed upfront early and attempt to work out a trip from mid-pack. Although, he would need a lot of things to go his way in order to have a shot to hit the board.
10. Cutting Humor (Corey Lanerie, 30/1): He worked out a nice stalking trip to get the job done in the Sunland Derby. Although he added a graded-stakes win to his resume, the field was weak and, when compared to a lot of the other times in races at the same distance, he seems to be a bit slow.
11. Haikal (Rajiv Maragh, 30/1): He gets out very slow, spotting the field as many as 14 lengths in his last two races. With his closing style, he’s a runner that really benefits from the quick early fractions and perhaps a speed duel up front. He should take well to the added furlongs of the Kentucky Derby and looms as a long shot, who might be able to hit the board closing late at a nice price.
12. Omaha Beach (Mike Smith, 4/1): The Kentucky Derby morning line favorite draws a really good post position, and his early speed should see this runner involved in the pace scenario early. He’s won three straight races and was impressive in the slop at the Arkansas Derby over Improbable. Although he isn’t the quickest of runners, he has progressed nicely and looms as the one to beat as an early Kentucky Derby odds betting favorite.
13. Code of Honor (John Velazquez, 15/1): He’s coming off a third place finish in the Florida Derby after getting bumped at the start. The Florida Derby was an odd race with Maximum Security left alone uncontested on the front end. Despite Maximum Security having his way on the front end, Code of Honor showed a nice late-closing kick off easy fractions. Look for him to be positioned well to run down the leaders in the deep stretch.
14. Win Win Win (Julian Pimentel, 15/1): He’s one of only a few horses with a closing style and is another that looks like he will benefit from the faster early fractions. The post position does not deter him and he will definitely be spotting the field a lot of early lengths. The added couple of furlongs of the Derby look advantageous to him and he’s another that should be flying late in deep stretch.
15. Master Fencer (Julien Leparoux, 50/1): This is the first ever Japanese-bred horse to try its luck in the Kentucky Derby. He has two wins in three career starts and has had almost a week in Louisville to prep for the change of scenery and get adjusted to the new track. He is a long shot for a reason and does not look like he will at any point be a factor on the first Saturday in May.
16. Game Winner (Joel Rosario, 5/1): He’s been a beaten favorite in both of his 2019 career races, however, he narrowly missed finishing second in both. He draws a very difficult post position for a horse that isn’t a true closer or one that doesn’t seem to posses a lot of early speed. This outside post may force him farther back than ideal. Without seeing experience closing or off a troubled trip, the price appears too short.
17. Roadster (Florent Geroux, 6/1): He’s another runner that was hoping for a better post position draw as he may be forced very wide early on the first turn, due to the outside post and his lack of early speed. He loses the services of jockey Mike Smith to Omaha Beach, and while this is not the worst jockey change, it’s still a huge disadvantage losing Smith, who has been on board in all of his four career starts. It’s tough to find complaints with this colt who has looked very good in all of his California races.
18. Long Range Toddy (Jon Court, 30/1): He is coming off a disappointing effort in the Arkansas Derby, racing over a sloppy track. He didn’t take well to the off track and being forced wide, but he has put forth some good efforts. It will be difficult to navigate out of the outside post as a runner not possessing much early speed or showcasing any type of a solid late-closing kick.
19. Spinoff (Manny Franco, 30/1): The best part of this runner is his training. It’s very rare you see a Todd Pletcher horse with such high morning line odds attached. He’s lightly raced and has only made two starts since August and it’s very possible he’s sitting on a big race as his times have steadily been improving. He’s taken well to the early bumping in his most recent two races, which preps him for what’s to come in the Kentucky Derby.
20. Country House (Flavian Prat, 30/1): If any horse is going to draw the outside and not be affected by it, then it would be this runner who starts very slowly and has shown a decent late-closing kick. He will be hoping for a pace meltdown up front to track down tired runners late. He’s worthy of a closer look into rounding out your superfecta wagers.
Also Eligible: Bodexpress (30/1)