Cnotes 2019 Triple Crown All You Need To Know About The Big 3 Races News/Notes/Selections !

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds
April 28, 2019
By VI News


The 2019 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday May 4 from Churchill Downs, Kentucky.


The first leg of the Triple Crown is known as “The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” and certain horses are already receiving interest at the betting counter.


Sportsbook.ag is offering up Fixed Odds for the 2019 event and listed below are the early entries that are expected to be part of the 20-horse field.


Odds to win 2019 Kentucky Derby (5/4/19) - per Sportsbook.ag
Omaha Beach 4/1
Game Winner 9/2
Improbable 5/1
Maximum Security 5/1
Roadster 5/1
Tacitus 8/1
Haikal 10/1
Vekoma 12/1
Long Range Toddy 15/1
War Of Will 15/1
Win Win Win 15/1
Code Of Honor 20/1
Spinoff 20/1
Cutting Humor 25/1
By My Standards 30/1
Plus Que Parfait 30/1
Country House 40/1
Tax 40/1
Gray Magician 45/1
Master Fencer 50/1
Bodexpress 70/1
Anothertwistafate 75/1
Bourbon War 75/1
Signalman 75/1
Sueno 75/1




Odds and Horses Subject to Change - Updated 4.28.19 - 4:30 p.m. ET

Churchill Downs enacts improvements
April 18, 2019
By The Associated Press


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Churchill Downs will invest $8 million for an on-site equine medical center as part of several other measures to improve safety for horses and riders.


The medical center is expected to open next March and will include a quarantine facility. Next month's Kentucky Derby will have a temporary medical center. The track's parent company, Churchill Downs Incorporated, will also hire an equine medical director to oversee safety at its facilities.


The historic track will also install camera surveillance with other improvements to the backside area.


Earlier Thursday, Churchill Downs and several other tracks announced they would phase out use of the anti-bleeding medication Lasix for horses within 24 hours of racing. The track later announced other initiatives, including advocating for additional equine medication reforms; the formation of an Office of Racing Integrity that will to develop uniformed medication and safety standards; formalizing concussion protocol for jockey safety; and adopting international standards for riding crop use.

Derby Contenders - Part 2
May 1, 2019
By Anthony Stabile


The second of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of New York and Kentucky, primarily, led by the highest points-earner on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, Tacitus.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who is seeking his first win in the Derby, Tacitus finished fourth in his debut going 1 1/16 miles at Belmont in early October before breaking his maiden going a mile at Aqueduct one month later in his two starts last year. He showed tactical speed in both efforts just off a couple of honest paces, especially in the early going.

After a winter in which Mott had to plot the course for several sophomores pointed towards Louisville, he decided to bring Tacitus back in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in early March. Tampa Bay’s racing surface has historically been one of the trickiest and quirkiest around and figured to provide a solid acid-test for a horse with just two starts under his belt. Tacitus answered the call.

Under his regular rider Jose Ortiz, Tacitus was much farther off the pace than usual from post 10 and faced a double-digit length deficit when the field made its way to the far turn. He began to launch a bid with a little over a quarter of a mile to go and passed horses swiftly while racing along the inside. He made the lead in deep stretch and held off a couple rallying with him to score by just over a length at just under 9-1.

Tacitus returned to the site of his maiden tally four weeks later to run in the G2 Wood Memorial.
The post time favorite at 5-2 from post 3, Tacitus broke alertly but quickly encountered traffic trouble on the first turn when the longshot front-runner crossed over from his outside draw and caused a chain reaction that led to several runners getting bounced around and bumped.

Tacitus found himself in fourth going down the backstretch of the Wood Memorial behind a speed duel some seven or eight lengths ahead of him. Ortiz waited until the far turn to launch his bid, this time going outside of the front runners, and Tacitus finally got to the lead in mid-stretch before drawing away to win by a similar margin to the one in his prior start.

Like Tacitus, Vekoma will be making just his fifth start in the Run for the Roses, for trainer George Weaver, who’ll give Javier Castellano a leg up once again in the Derby.

Vekoma broke his maiden going six furlongs at Belmont in his debut by almost two lengths, stopping the clock in a sparkling 1:08 4/5, back in late September. Weaver stretched him out and tried him in stakes company on Breeders’ Cup weekend at Aqueduct where he won the G3 Nahua going a mile in almost identical fashion as his maiden score.

Nearly four months later, Vekoma made his seasonal bow in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. It would be his first try around two turns, something several people thought would be an issue for him. His effort did nothing to answer those questions.


Perfectly placed behind a sharp early pace in fourth, Vekoma did little running in the second half of the Fountain of Youth going 1 1/16 miles around the short stretch in those races at Gulfstream and actually lost ground in the late stages where he ultimately finished third nearly three lengths behind the winner.

Weaver changed riders to Castellano for his final prep, the G2 Blue Grass, where Vekoma put the two-turns question to rest. Placed just off of the early pace by Castellano, Vekoma made the lead midway on the far turn then accelerated away nicely through the stretch to win by an expanding 3 ½ lengths.

Both his margin of victory and awkward running action had people talking about Vekoma after the Blue Grass, a race many felt was the most authoritative prep-effort put forth this season.

Win Win Win has finished behind both Tacitus and Vekoma in his last two starts, respectively, though there are some out there that were more enamored with his effort as opposed to the winner’s in the Blue Grass.

Trained by Mike Trombetta, whose lone Derby starter prior to this year, Sweetnorthernsaint, was the lukewarm favorite back in 2006, Win Win Win made his first four starts in sprints, with the first three coming at Laurel near the trainer’s mid-Atlantic base.

A couple of wins followed by a second in a minor-stakes in Maryland as a juvenile were followed by a sensational, track and stakes record effort in the seven-furlong Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs, where Win Win Win stopped the clock in 1:20 4/5. The performance earned him a chance to get on the Derby Trail.

In the Tampa Bay Derby, Trombetta replaced regular rider Julian Pimentel with Irad Ortiz, Jr. despite Pimentel’s performance on Win Win Win. He was never far from Tacitus throughout but was eventually forced five-wide on the far turn and lost some ground before rallying to get third.

In the Blue Grass, Win Win Win had just one on his thirteen rivals beat in the early running and passed most of the them before the far turn before finding a good deal of traffic trouble/ He was bumped a couple of times then forced to steady a bit before resuming his rally in deep stretch when Vekoma was long gone. He managed a runner-up performance that got him into this spot.

With Ortiz opting to ride Improbable in the Derby, Trombetta has given the mount on Win Win Win back to Pimentel.

Tax earned every one of his 52 Derby points at the Big A for trainer Danny Gargan, who claimed him just his second start out of a $50 maiden claimer victory going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland, last October. Gargan ran him back six weeks later in the G2 Remsen at nine furlongs and Tax rewarded his faith with a solid third place finish less than three lengths behind the winner.

Two months later in the G3 Withers going the same distance as the Remsen, Tax stumbled a bit at the start under his new rider Junior Alvarado but recovered quickly and took advantage of the inside bias that day at Aqueduct and never left the rail. The hole opened up along the inside in mid-stretch and after briefly battling with a couple of rivals, Tax edged away and held off a re-rally from the pacesetting Not That Brady to score by just a head.

Not wanting to cut back to the one-turn mile distance of the G3 Gotham, Tax had another brief freshening and returned two months later in the Wood Memorial. Leaving the gate from post 1 again, Tax was one of those bothered going into the first turn and was actually considered to be one of the culprits by some for some dramatic actions taken by his rider going into the clubhouse turn run. Tax moved in tandem with Tacitus on the turn and mustered a nice rally but couldn’t stay with the winner in the final stages.

Speaking of Aqueduct, the Derby will be the first start Haikal makes outside of the South Ozone Park, NY oval for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

Haikal flew home through the stretch to miss by just a neck while racing wide in his November debut before riding the rail to victory when cutting back to six furlongs under Rajiv Maragh for the first time some five weeks later.

Haikal made his stakes debut in the seven-furlong Jimmy Winkfield where Maragh took advantage of a pronounced inside bias and rallied him up the rail again to win by a neck.

Stretching out in the Gotham, Haikal went from looking like a prototypical, one-run closer to a racehorse when he took advantage of a pace meltdown to get up by a length. The Gotham win not only earned him 50 points but showed some people his ability to listen to his rider and alter course effectively, two things one-run closers often cannot do.

Haikal still had the two-turn question to answer and certainly proved he could handle it in the Wood Memorial, where his lack of early speed may have actually helped his cause going into the turn because he didn’t get into any trouble while others did. That can be taken as a negative as well when you consider the fact that the top two were affected and Haikal was only able to manage a third-place finish, four lengths behind Tacitus.

Still, the Haikal camp has to be happy with the fact that the distance of the Wood Memorial didn’t seem to hinder him. He was still making up ground at the end of the nine furlongs and in fact is one of only horse pointing to the Derby who can say he’s improved position in the second portion of all of his starts.

Derby Contenders - Part 3
April 29, 2019
By Anthony Stabile


The third of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of the Fair Grounds and Sunland Park.


Four runners – By My Standards, War of Will, Spinoff and Country House – exit the G2 Louisiana Derby, run six weeks before the Run for the Roses while Cutting Humor won the G3 Sunland Derby the very next day.

War of Will went into the La. Derby a perfect three-for-three on the dirt for trainer Mark Casse and rider Tyler Gaffalione.

After starting out winless in four starts on turf, with solid efforts in G1 races like the Summer at Woodbine and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Churchill, Casse switched War of Will to the dirt and ended his juvenile season with a five-length romp in the slop beneath the twin spires.

Sent to Casse’s Fair Grounds string for his winter campaign, War of Will came out firing, rolling to a four-length tally in the G3 LeComte despite a wide trip and a bit of a more workmanlike, two-plus length victory in the G2 Risen Star that earned him the bulk of his 60 points.

The 4-5 favorite in the La. Derby, War of Will was awful. He broke awkwardly, appeared to be lame both in the race and afterwards and was said to have a soft tissue issue after a ninth-place finish.

War of Will has reportedly recovered nicely but would need a remarkable turn around and shake the notion that Louisiana is not the place to prep a Derby horse as few have had any success in these Triple Crown races in recent memory.

By My Standards upset the proverbial applecart in a big way in the Louisiana Derby for Bret Calhoun at over 22-1, earning all of his Derby points with one big effort.

Winless in two starts last year and his first this year, By My Standards had already tried two turns twice down in the bayou before breaking his maiden in his fourth try under regular rider Gabriel Saez. He overcame some trouble at the start and a wide trip to get out of the maiden ranks and was apparently good enough for Calhoun to send hi up against stakes company.


In the La. Derby, By My Standards couldn’t have scripted a better trip. Fourth early behind honest early fractions, Saez moved him into the clear off of the turn before the two grinded their way to the lead in the late stages to win by a little less than a length.

Since that score, By My Standards has been a bit of a buzz/wiseguy horse having done all of his prep work at Churchill Downs for over a month and is apparently getting over the ground well.

Country House used a couple of starts last year to find his way for trainer Bill Mott, who finally got him out of the maiden ranks in his seasonal bow at Gulfstream going 1 1.16 miles after breaking poorly and making up a ton of ground late to win by a widening three-and-a-half-lengths.

Country House shipped for the Risen Star off of that tally and after breaking slowly again, passed most of his rivals before stalling a bit when finishing second, more than two lengths behind War of Will.

He gave it another go in the La. Derby where he finished fourth after a slow but better break, wide trip and bit of a premature move on the far turn. The real story that day was his studish behavior in the paddock prior to the race. He was acting up and thinking more about the fillies that were in the paddock prior to his race for the Oaks than he was running in that Derby.

Mott seemed hellbent on getting Country House to the Derby and sent him to Oaklawn Park just three weeks later for the G1 Arkansas Derby. After a good break, he settled towards the rear of the field over the sloppy track and secured a third-place finish and enough points to run in this.

With Luis Saez riding Maximum Security and Joel Rosario on Game Winner, Mott has chosen Flavien Prat to ride Country House with the hope that he fits his one-run style.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner having saddled Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming two years ago, comes into this Derby in a unique position for him as his two runners, Spinoff and Cutting Humor, figure to be longshots.

Spinoff has made just four starts in a career that has spanned over 10 months. After breaking his maiden at Gulfstream at the end of June last year, Spinoff shipped to Saratoga and finished third in the G2 Saratoga Special behind multiple graded stakes winner Call Paul.

Away from the races for over six months, Spinoff returned in a mile and forty-yard allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs, where he made quick work of four rivals, winning by almost a dozen lengths.

Back in against stakes company last out in the La. Derby, Spinoff raced alongside the winner most of the way and actually got the jump on him on the far turn but couldn’t stave him off in the final sixteenth of a mile. Manny Franco will ride for the first time as John Velazquez has committed to ride Code of Honor.

Cutting Humor still needs a rider as Velazquez has been his partner for four of his six starts. After a second-place finish in his debut at Belmont and third place finish on the stretch out at Keeneland, Cutting Humor broke his maiden going a two-turn mile at Gulfstream Park West last fall when blinkers were added.

Two months later, Velazquez climbed back aboard for the first time since his debut and piloted Cutting Humor to a runner-up performance behind Derby-bubble horse Bourbon War.

Pletcher decided to ship Cutting Humor to Oaklawn for the G3 Southwest. Sent off as the 2-1 chalk, Cutting Humor never seemed comfortable over the track and couldn’t work out a trip in an oddly run race and finished a non-threatening seventh.

Still in search of Derby points, Cutting Humor found his way to Sunland Park for its Derby. Bet down to 2-1 yet again, this time he rewarded his backers, sitting a few lengths behind a fast pace before making the lead at the top of the stretch and holding off Anothertwistafate in the final yards to win by a neck.

B]Derby Contenders - Part 4
April 30, 2019
By Anthony Stabile
[/B]
The final of our four-part Kentucky Derby preview will focus on the horses who earned their way into the Kentucky Derby starting gate by way of Gulfstream Park and the international points races offered in the Middle East and Asia.

Maximum Security is undefeated in four starts and is the only horse this year in the Derby that has yet to lose a race, a remarkable note when you consider the fact that he began his career in a $16K maiden claiming event in late December at Gulfstream, where he has made all of his starts.

Trained by Jason Servis, Maximum Security took them gate-to-wire that afternoon, winning by nearly 10 lengths going 6 ½ furlongs. He returned five weeks later in a six-furlong starter allowance/optional claimer and romped by over six lengths from just off the pace over a muddy track.

Same conditions, same results in late February when he won by over 18 lengths over a fast track going seven furlongs and earning the highest Beyer Speed Figure in this year’s Derby field with a 102. Servis decided to test him for stamina and class and pointed him towards the G1 Florida Derby going nine furlongs in late March.

Luis Saez climbed aboard Maximum Security for the first time in the Florida Derby. There was some other speed signed on for the event, namely the highly regarded Hidden Scroll. But when the rumors that they were going to rate Hidden Scroll proved true a few jumps out of the gate, Saez took advantage and let his stretching out sprinter use his speed.

Maximum Security didn’t have to go very fast early on yet still found himself loose on the front end. After a half that went just under :49 seconds, a pedestrian pace at Gulfstream for this caliber of horses, it was all but over. He faced a brief rally from the maiden Bodexpress, currently first on the AE list to get into the Derby, but quickly drew away from him on the turn and never faced a challenge through the stretch, winning by three-and-a-half lengths.

Maximum Security figures to be the pacesetter once again in the Derby and could also serve as an incidental “rabbit” for Game Winner as they are owned by the same connections.

Code of Honor let you know he was a good one right from the start of his career when he took his debut in gate-to-wire fashion in a Saratoga sprint last August for his Hall of Fame trainer and winner of the 2013 Derby with Orb, Shug McGaughey. It’s not only rare for the trainer to win first time out but with speed and dirt sprinting is like finding a dragon egg.

So impressive was Code of Honor in his debut, McGaughey entered him next in the Prestigious G1 Champagne at Belmont. Code of Honor seemingly lost all chance at the start when he stumbled badly leaving the gate, taking away his tactical speed and leaving him behind nine rivals. He recovered nicely and launched a strong but wide rally on the far turn to finish second, just three-lengths behind the front-running winner.

Code of Honor was entered in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but forced to scratch when he fell ill the week of the race. It was decided to give him some time and take him straight to Florida where he returned in the early January Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream. The 4-5 favorite, he couldn’t have been more disappointing/ He made a very brief move approaching the far turn but was never really a factor and finished a well-beaten fourth.


McGaughey pressed on to the G2 Fountain of Youth with Code of Honor, hoping the prior effort was just a case of his charge needing to knock the rust off. Shug was right. Under a brilliant ride by John Velazquez, a two time Derby winner with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Always Dreaming in 2017, he saved ground behind a blazing pace in fourth, made a move to the lead off of the far turn in the short stretch run of the event and was able to hold on by three-quarters of a length.

As well as it set up for Code of Honor in the Fountain of Youth, the Florida Derby pace scenario was a nightmare, especially after he was bumped at the start. He was eighth in the early running, launched a run on the turn and again did a bit of running in deep stretch but he never really threatened in third, over six lengths behind the winner.

Plus Que Parfait is the rare American-based runner that had to go to Dubai to earn his Derby points on a desert night in March for trainer Brendan Walsh.

Last season, Plus Que Parfait finished third in his first two starts, his first on turf then at Churchill going a mile, before breaking his maiden around two turns at Keeneland. It was a strong enough effort to lead him to the G2 KJC where he made a big move from off the pace while wide over an inside, speed-biased sloppy track to miss by just a neck while finishing second.

This season, Plus Que Parfait began his season at the Fair Grounds with a decent effort in the G3 LeComte where he stumbled at the start and was very wide subsequently. It was enough of a trip for the public to send him off at 6-1 behind big favorite War of Will in the G2 Risen Star. He didn’t run a step in an absolute head-scratcher, beating home just one of his 13 rivals while beaten over 20 lengths.

A pair of blinkers and trip to the G2 U.A.E. Derby were up next for Plus Que Parfait. In a reversion of tactics, he found himself on the lead early on and stayed there, battling through the lane to hold on by almost a length at an about distance of a mile and three sixteenths under Jose Ortiz, who will ride Tacitus in the Derby. Ricardo Santana, Jr., his pilot in his maiden tally, rides in here.

Gray Magician was a bang-up second in Dubai and will be making his ninth start in the Derby for trainer Peter Miller who will give Drayden Van Dyke a leg up for the first time.

Gray Magician broke his maiden in his fourth start and first for Miller last year to close out his juvenile campaign before finishing fourth in the G3 Sham at Santa Anita to start this season. After a poor effort in the slop in an allowance/optional claimer, he shipped to Laurel just over two weeks later for the Miracle Wood where he finished second, over four lengths behind mid-Atlantic star Alwaysmining, a Preakness candidate.

In Dubai, Gray Magician and his rider that day, Joel Rosario, bided their time early on before launching a serious bid once the field entered the stretch but couldn’t reach the winner.

The mystery horse in this year’s Derby is the Japanese-bred import, Master Fencer, who’ll get French-born but locally based Julien Leparoux to ride.

Master Fencer won his last of three starts in 2018 and first of this year from six career starts and earned his points via a fourth-place finish in the Hyacinth and second-place effort last out in the Fukuryu last out for trainer Koichi Tsunoda.

KD favorite Omaha Beach scratched
May 1, 2019
By The Associated Press


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Suddenly, the Kentucky Derby is wide open.


Favorite Omaha Beach was scratched because of a breathing problem Wednesday night, leaving a pair of Hall of Famers on the sideline - trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith.


Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia revised the morning line to make Game Winner the 9-2 favorite for the 1 1/4-mile race Saturday.


Improbable and Roadster were installed as the co-second choices at 5-1, giving five-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert the top three choices in the 20-horse field.


Mandella told The Associated Press that Omaha Beach developed a cough and a subsequent veterinary exam showed the colt has an entrapped epiglottis. It's generally not life- or career-threatening and is typically corrected with minor surgery.


''It's been a devastating thing, but we have to do what's right for the horse,'' said Mandella, who has never won the Derby with six previous starters.


The trainer said Omaha Beach will have surgery in Kentucky in the next few days and will be sidelined for two to three weeks. The ordeal will knock him off the Triple Crown trail.


''It's such a disappointment, but we'll fight again,'' Mandella told the AP. ''We won't be out a long time.''


The scratch was another blow to cancer survivor Rick Porter, the colt's 78-year-old owner. He has twice finished second in the Derby, in 2007 with Hard Spun and the following year with filly Eight Belles, who broke her ankles past the finish line and had to be euthanized.


''He's a great sport,'' Mandella said. ''I've got very good support.''


Omaha Beach had been the 4-1 early favorite.


Mandella's dry sense of humor came out when he said, ''My wife has my leg tied down so I can't jump out of the window.''


Smith had chosen to ride Omaha Beach instead of Roadster and now he won't have a chance to win the Derby for the second straight year. He rode Justify to victory last year.


''I'm a little bummed out, but the horse is OK and we're going to be all right,'' Smith told the AP by phone. ''The good news is it wasn't anything that is life-threatening.''


Smith has three mounts on Friday's card at Churchill Downs and five Saturday.


''I'll be rooting for Roadster's connections big-time,'' he said. ''I'll be a glorified cheerleader.''


Omaha Beach galloped Wednesday morning without problem and Mandella said everything was fine. But that changed by late afternoon when the exam showed the cough was more than a minor irritation.


The condition can indicate the start of a virus, a sore throat or a sore in somewhere in the horse's soft palate.


Omaha Beach's scratch moves Bodexpress into the field in the No. 20 post.


Mandella said he would likely return to Southern California before the Derby.


''I didn't lose interest,'' he said, ''but I don't want to be here and watch it.''


It's not the first time the Derby has lost a favorite leading up to the race.


In 2009, I Want Revenge became the first morning-line favorite to scratch the day of the race because of a hot spot on his ankle.

thanks C for all this info,good job

your welcome Michael 777.............lets hope my winners fly like a 777

Thanks for the info C

GL today

Here's more takes on the Derby from a guy that really knows his chit: https://www.predictem.com/horse-betting/kentucky-derby-picks-top-contenders/

Preakness Stakes Breakdown
May 17, 2019
By Anthony Stabile


Preakness Stakes ML Odds




2019 BREAKDOWN


PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)


1 – War of Will 4/1 Tyler Gaffalione (Debut) Mark Casse (0-4)


Notes: Boy, has he been on some roller coaster ride this year. Before his debacle in the Louisiana Derby when his three-race win streak was snapped, there was a good chance he was going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite. But he came out of that hurt. And then he was fine. And then he was training great. And then he drew the rail. End of story, right? Wrong. Gaffalione did a spectacular job working out a clean trip from the draw and was ready to make his move to the lead in the Kentucky Derby. And then………Look, we all know what went down. There are two camps. The first thinks he was never going by Maximum Security and that HE caused the problems and then there all the rational people like me who believe he was greatly affected and could have actually won. Either way, he showed up in Louisville off the six-week break and that spoke volumes to me. I think he has a big chance to win this and he’ll be on all of my tickets.


2 – Bourbon War 12/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Mark Hennig (0-2)


Notes: I’ve liked this horse since the day he broke his maiden at Aqueduct last fall. He ran well in the Remsen just 17 days later, was good in his allowance score at Gulfstream and even better when his rally fell a bit short in the Fountain of Youth. He had no chance in the Florida Derby when the winner waltzed on the front end. Now, he has a bit of a freshening, gets a course more conducive to his late running style and some added distance. His jock doesn’t hurt either, or the addition of blinkers, which will hopefully make him a little keen and focused.


3 – Warrior’s Charge 12/1 Javier Castellano (2-7) Brad Cox (Debut)


Notes: Finished third in his first three tries from off the pace before putting it all together two back when his connections changed tactics and put him on the front end. Still eligible for a second level allowance contest and his pedigree does not suggest the extra furlong this offers over his last two tallies will do him any favors. I’ll pass.


4 – Improbable 5/2 Mike Smith (2-17) Bob Baffert (7-19)


Notes: I’ve watched the replay of the Derby from start to finish about a dozen times and the incident on the far turn around 50 more times. When you get a chance, do each one time and just focus on this horse. You’ll see what I see. He didn’t do one step of running. “Evenly” should be the short comment in the chart. What a non-effort. Now, he’s the morning line favorite, comes in for America’s Trainer and gets “Money” Mike. He will take boatloads of money. Not a dollar of it will be mine, save in a couple of “All” slots in trifectas. I know it can be hard to resist the temptation of just defaulting to this horse when you handicap the race but try. You’ll thank me later.


5 - Owendale 10/1 Florent Geroux (0-3) Brad Cox (Debut)


Notes: I’ve taken my fair share of shots at Geroux but that was a hell of a ride he gave this horse to win the Lexington. He put him in the perfect spot, pulled the trigger in the short-stretch of the 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland at just the right time and was able to last late. I do, however, feel that he was also the beneficiary of some bad racing luck for his rivals, namely the runner-up Anothertwistafate. I’m not certain he was best last time and the chances of him getting all of the breaks again are against him. A peripheral player, at best, for me.


6 – Market King 30/1 Jon Court (0-1) D. Wayne Lukas (6-43)


Notes: A gate scratch in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard, he wasn’t even cleared to race in this until earlier this week as he was on the vet’s list. No thanks.

7 – Alwaysmining 8/1 Daniel Centeno (Debut) Kelly Rubley (Debut)


Notes: We haven’t seen a Maryland-bred win this in over three decades and Rubley would be the first female trainer to ever win a Triple Crown event. Combine that with his “local horse” status and you have an amazing, feel-good story that could steer the attention away from the Derby That Won’t End. Unfortunately, they run these races on the track and not with Mr. Rogers in the Land of Make Believe. He’s not facing the toughest Preakness field ever assembled but they’re killers compared to what he’s beaten, albeit, soundly. Bottom line is, he wins, I lose.


8 - Signalman 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (0-1) Ken McPeek (0-3)


Notes: Morning lines are a very tricky thing to make and for the most part it is a thankless job. But this is just stupid. This horse won’t be 30-1 and he shouldn’t be 30-1. He’s run one “bad” race and that was off of a three-month break over a short stretch run race at Gulfstream, hardly the place for a horse with his running style. He’s run well and been in the trifecta in his other six starts. He’s gaining ground at the end of most of his races, he’s making his third start off of the break and he’ll have plenty of pace to run into. A definite player, he’ll be included in all of my exotic plays and maybe even on a backup pick four ticket.


9 – Bodexpress 20/1 John Velazquez (0-8) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)


Notes: He found a little trouble in the Derby incident and gets a Hall of Fame rider for this but I’m sticking by my mantra: Maidens do not belong in these races!


10 – Everfast 50/1 Joel Rosario (0-5) Dale Romans (1-6)


Notes: He’s run three races in which he’s been competitive and seven where he has been noting more than an also-ran. Was a very late edition to the party on Wednesday. Not sure why. I wouldn’t use him with counterfeit cash.


11 – Laughing Fox 20/1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-8)


Notes: He is as sneaky a longshot as can be in this heat. He lost all chance at the start of the Rebel and didn’t love the slop in the Arkansas Derby. He’s won his other three starts this year in come-from-behind fashion and has plenty of pedigree to suggest the added distance will suit him. The two-week turnaround is my lone concern but his price more than makes up for it. Including him in all exotic plays and on a backup pick four ticket.

12 – Anothertwistafate 6/1 Jose Ortiz (0-2) Blaine Wright (-)


Notes: Sorry, but I’ve never understood the infatuation by many with this horse. He’s winless on dirt as all three of his scores have come against far inferior competition on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields. He ran well in the Sunland Derby and got himself into a tough spot in the Lexington but I don’t think those efforts will get it done here. I also feel he has plateaued while others in here have some blue sky. I wouldn’t be surprised if his rider, one of the best around on the front end, reverts back to the gate-to-wire strategy used in all three of his wins, which would seemingly make his job that much tougher. I’m against him.


13 – Win Win Win 15/1 Julian Pimentel (0-2) Mike Trombetta (0-1)


Notes: Wise guy handicappers and fans love to bet the bigger price of an uncoupled entry. Well, he’s “other” local horse. Took some money and had a buzz around him going into the Derby but he didn’t run a step after a pretty clean trip. Maybe it was as simple as him not handling the slop or maybe he’s just not that good. I’m siding with the latter.

Preakness - Best Bets
May 16, 2019
By BetDSI


Preakness Picks


The 2019 Preakness Stakes won’t have the Kentucky Derby winner, but it will have Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. Improbable finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and the three horses that finished ahead of him are not running in Saturday’s Preakness.


Only four horses that ran in the Derby are in the Preakness and only two of those, Improbable and War of Will are considered serious threats. Let’s look at Saturday’s race and Preakness picks.

Preakness Odds at BetDSI
Improbable +200
War Of Will +300
Bourbon War +650
Alwaysmining +800
Anothertwistafate +800
Win Win Win +1000
Owendale +1100
Warrior's Charge +1200
Signalman +1400
Bodexpress +2000
Laughing Fox +2000
Market King +2000


Favorite


Improbable was an official disappointment in the Derby, as the horse didn’t make up any ground. The horse was thought to be the best of the Baffert horses in the Derby and yet he did nothing once again. Could it be that Improbable just isn’t as good as advertised? One thing we do know is that we are not taking him at odds of 2-1.


Contenders


War of Will is one of the horses that got hurt by Maximum Security going wide in the Derby. Whether or not War of Will would have been good enough to win we don’t know, but the horse gets another chance on Saturday. This is another horse that looks overvalued at odds of 3-1.


The other three horses listed at single-digit odds at BetDSI are Bourbon War, Alwaysmining and Anothertwistafate. Bourbon War is going to need a fast pace to win and he might get that in the Preakness. The horse was last seen finishing fourth in the Florida Derby, but that race didn’t have a fast pace.


Alwaysmining is a Maryland-bred horse that will be popular at Pimlico but he is going to be overvalued. He has a trainer and jockey who are known in Maryland but not really known on the national stage. Alwaysmining has been great at Laurel Park, but this is a big step up in class. Anothertwistafate has finished first or second in his last five races and he gets a boost with Jose Ortiz taking over in the irons. The horse has speed and he was right with Owendale in the Lexington.


Dark Horse

Owendale came from off the pace to win the Lexington Stakes at odds of 12-1. The horse lost badly to War of Will in the Risen Star Stakes in February, but he has made some solid improvements since then. If Owendale goes off at double-digit odds he is worth considering and he is definitely worth a shot at BetDSI at the current odds of +1100.


Preakness Field by Post Position and Morning Line Odds
1. War of Will (4-1) Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
2. Bourbon War (12-1) Trainer: Mark Hennig, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
3. Warrior's Charge (12-1) Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Javier Castellano
4. Improbable (5-2) Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith
5. Owendale (10-1) Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Florent Geroux
6. Market King (30-1) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas, Jockey: Jon Court
7. Alwaysmining (8-1) Trainer: Kelly Rubley, Jockey: Daniel Centeno
8. Signalman (30-1) Trainer: Kenny McPeek, Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
9. Bodexpress (20-1) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado, Jockey: John Velazquez
10. Everfast (50-1) Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Joel Rosario
11. Laughing Fox (20-1) Trainer: Steve Asmussen, Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) Trainer: Blaine Wright, Jockey: Jose Ortiz
13. Win Win Win (15-1) Trainer: Michael Trombetta, Jockey: Julian Pimentel


Preakness Picks


There is no value in taking either of the top two favorites, as Improbable and War of Will are overvalued. We like Bourbon War and we are very surprised he is listed at 12-1 on the morning line. We also think that Owendale is a live longshot and we like the current odds of 11-1 at BetDSI. We’ll take Bourbon War and Owendale to win and also play those two in exacta and trifecta boxes along with Improbable and Win Win Win.


The 2019 Preakness takes place on Saturday with a start time of 6:48 p.m. Eastern on NBC.