Monday Service Play Thread 4/29/2019

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Stephen Nover

3*
San Francisco / LA DODGERS over 7.5

2*
Dallas -115

JR ODONNELL

3*GOW
Philadelphia +6.5

Ben Burns

3*GOW
Philadelphia +6.5

TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN BIG TICKET 5% MLB GAME ~ MONTH
Game: (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Apr 29 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Washington Nationals -144

View Analysis

PLAY:: Washington Nationals -144 (good to -160)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Corbin
(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
First let me set the record straight -- I do not typically tinker with Major League Baseball investments that require laying any amount of wood. The goal each and every night is to find favor from one dugout, or both, when playing totals, but most importantly doing so at plus-money. In 44 releases this season I have not pushed any play with a moneyline in excess of -130 to the shopping cart or to my clients and 19 of the 44 releaes have been -105 or plus money investments.
This -144, which is currently the best number of the 15 shops I track and shop, is the best one can capture.. and I don't expect that to get better through a Sunday overnight or throughout the day Monday.
PLAY: Washington Nationals -144 (good to -160)
5% game rating

LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Corbin

(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals

The Cardinals pitching staff, especially their starting rotation, continue to struggle to match their overall team performance of 2018 and much of the reason for their struggles have come via injury. In this case, having successuflly worked through his side session on Friday without complicating the issue, Michael Wacha will take the hill in the nation's capital for the St. Louis troupe and oppose the Nationals Pat Corbin.

Wacha is coming off the 10-day IL after injuring his landing knee.. and ailing left knee that is reportedly patellar tendinitis. Wacha allowed five hits and a walk in his last turn before landing on the IL -- in a victory over a team he is perfect against across his young career, the Brewers (6-0 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 career appearances versus the Crew)

The Cardinals Wacha has a history with his left knee, and it an injury that he struggles to be comfortable just walking be it from the dugout to the hill or from his house to his car. Wacha is in his prime as a pitcher, or was the last two campaigns, and at 27-years-old he has begun the backside of a middling career. Wacha has a 4.64 ERA through four starts this season. He leads the Cards staff with 24 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Two of his starts have come against a team he has had more success against due to their free swinging philosophy, this being Milwaukee.

Wacha has allowed one and two runs in his pair of win over the Brewers. In mid-May Wacha was dominated by the Dodgers lineup. The Cards right-hander surrendered seven runs in just 3.2 innings of work. His regression of late 2018 and early 2019 has come in losing nearly 8 percent in his GB rate and adding nearly the same percentage to his hard contact. The Goliath that were the Dodgers in this May 12th start came with Wacha owning a 1.54 ERA -- which came along with a number of unsustainable peripherals.. e.g. 96% strand rate.

All evidence of regression is transparent for Wacha. He wasn't healthy for the most part a season ago and a number of those health issues remain to begin 2019. And without a 100 percent healthy landing knee he has battled his command.. this for the simple reason that the landing area and the stabilizer of the land, the knee, have to be right.. not close to right or "just ok" they are a big part of the mental aspect of pitching in the big boy league.. having confidence in the tools that make a good pitcher better than he really is.

The second of his two starts outside of his victories against the Brewers saw him allow but one run while striking out seven --- but that start was accompanied by walking eight San Diego hitters in just 5.2 innings.

It is asking the Cardinals Wacha a lot to jump back into a pitching mindset that requires a focus on routine when the prior season one is limited to less than 1090 innings of work. While pitching with his left knee issues Wacha has not thrown the pitch that has made him success at this level, his fastball. He has left the comfort zone of his fastball-heavy mix into the Twilight Zone of secondary pitches --- this being his curveball and changeup. Wacha also throws a cutter but the success of that pitch was the fact that he didn't show it at a high usage rate.

Wacha began losing Velo on his fastball last season and that trend has continued in 2019. And to pour salt in the wounds of Cardinal fans his overall performance in 2018, less positive than the previous campaign, was due to assumed statistical regression..... Wacha was better last season, which was nothing special, than he should have been considering his underlying peripherals. Wacha benefited from a .253 BABIP and 7.6% HR/FB ratio despite allowing a 42.7% hard hit rate.

The Nationals left-handed newbie, Pat Corbin, has been able to fly under the radar in the early portion of the 2019 season. This because despite his 120 million dollar free agent contract he isn't the headline starter for his new team... in fact he isn't even the second stand-in... with Scherzer and Strasburg owning the top spots in the Nationals rotation.

Corbin dominated the soft-swinging bats of the San Fran Giants in April. He worked 7.2 innings of 2-hit baseball allowing one run while striking out nine. In his last start he conquered Coors Field with a win over the Rockies. Corbin allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in six innings of a 6-3 victory in Denver over Colorado.

Corbin has tossed quality starts in each of his outings this season. And one last mention in the mismatch that is Corbin vs Wacha and in particular, Corbin vs the Cardinals lineup....

Corbin has frustrated the likes of Marcell Ozuna (3-for-16, six strikeouts) and the team's All Star backstop Molina (2-for-11). Corbin, during his big boy league learning curve has faced a number of the current Redbird bats and in his career five starts against St Louis is 1-1 with a 3.90 ERA.

The inconsistency of the 2019 St Louis Cardinals can be attributed to two key variables. The injuries to the pitching staff, including the likes of finding stand-ins for Carlos Martinez and top pitching prospect Alex Reyes.

And for more reasons than any the Cardinals would likely have a commanding lead in the NL Central, better than their current 17-10 mark, if they could just be bad against left-handed pitching... rather than their current "pathetic" status. The caveat to the following stat is that only the Minnesota Twins have less at bats than the Cardinals against left-handed pitching this season. In 137 at-bats against lefties in 2019 the Cardinals are hitting .197.. that is not a typo amigos... they are hitting nearly 30 pounds less than what I weigh in at. And they have shown little power against southpaws with a mere six home runs in total. And mind the fact that the lefties they have faced this year are not even close to the quality that is the 120 million dollar Corbin.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS -144

DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (573) Houston Rockets at (574) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Rockets 6.0 (-115)

View Analysis

Refs refs refs

Pretty sure the Dubs finish the 3peat all told by the end of the season....but this hubub is gonna lead to something and most likely that's game 2. They won by merely 4 as it was needing a massive Steph 3 late to extend the lead past 2 points and Durant to go OFF yet again...at Oracle
Rockets probably win this game going away in my estimation...and with all going on we still get the same half dozen? WTF


BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (907) Colorado Rockies at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Apr 29 2019 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Colorado Rockies +112

View Analysis

- Freeland is back and healthy
- After a 3-12 start the Rockies offense is HOT and rolling...despite missing the sweep on the Braves late yesterday they've won 10 of 13
- Yelich is OUT
- Rockies haven't played the Brew Crew since they got swept in the playoffs...revenge on their minds the entire winter
- Freeland is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA lifetime against the Brewers
- Yelich is OUT
- Before the skipped start Freeland pitched 6 innings allowing 2 hits.and no runs with 7 Ks in Coors against the Phils
- Freeland ERA- 4.23 but FIP/xFIP of 3.68/3.85 with a career high 13.5% HR/FB rate
- Yelich is OUT
- Rockies are a dog with Freeland pitching which is a 22-12 SU proposition...17-10 SU when on the road
- Expanding on the dog...Freeland is 10-2 SU...yes...10-2 SU when a road dog within 25 cents of a dollar!
- Yelich is OUT
- Rockies have won 4 of 5 outright as a road dog scoring 37 runs in the 5 games!
- If Davies (or Garza) is the starter...ripe for an analytics fade!

Marco/Sports Unlimited
4% Rockies

Hackman
stars -115

seabass is no longer showing past results as they are god awful

Dave Essler
3* Colorado +105
1* Tampa Bay / Kansas City over 8.5

Football Jesus pick for series Portland to advance , 42-14 playoffs , also last week texted boston , toronto and Golden state to advance

WUnderdog
MLB

Tampa Bay -133 v kansas city

sailfish said:

Hackman
stars -115

Click to expand...

added: stars -1.5 +245

Nfac 1000 philly +6.5

Anyone have the NFAC 750'S?

Miller locks

7:20 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. Atlanta braves

pick: Atlanta braves -1.5 (+126)

risk: 11 units

7:40 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Milwaukee brewers

pick: Milwaukee brewers (-115)

risk: 11 units

8:00 pm est nba
philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto raptors

pick: Toronto raptors -6.5 (-113)

risk: 11 units

8:15 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. Kansas city royals

pick: Tampa bay rays (-145)

risk: 11 units

10:35 pm est nba
portland trail blazers vs. Denver nuggets

pick: Portland trail blazers +4 (-105)

risk: 11 units

Exodus to Black
1-1 yesterday
MLB 30-15 +14 Units
TB-150

Goodfella

3*
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +5 (-125 bought to +5)



BONUS NBA 3* Series Bet for this Portland vs Denver series

3* on PORTLAND to win the series (+115)

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB: HOU/MINN F5 UNDER 4.5 -120 3 units

MLB Season: 23-22-3 51% -16.45 units