Friedeggpaulie



Week 18: Wells Fargo Championship
Updates:


  • Key Attributes and Outrights posted 6:08 pm CST Monday
  • Top 10/20, Tournament HTH posted 5:08 pm Tuesday
  • First Round Leader and One and Done League Advice posted 6:15 am Wednesday
  • DK Sportsbook bets posted 6:31 am Wednesday
  • MKF Round 1 Props posted 6:42 am Wednesday
  • Round 1 HTH posted 4:00 pm Wednesday
  • MKF R2 Props posted 6:16 pm Thursday



Key Attributes:
Players who have success at this course typically succeed in 3 key areas:


  • Length off the tee




  • This is one of the longest courses on Tour and allows players to hit driver on most holes.




  • Mid to long iron prowess




  • With the course playing so long, players who arenít insanely long off the tee will be forced to have a lot of approaches from 175-225.




  • Chipping/Pitching:




  • With long approach shots combined with rough that is difficult to judge iron shots out of and firm greens we see a larger than normal percentage of greens missed. The scores typically arenít super low here so grinding out pars after errant shots is key.



Outrights:


  • Mickelson +3000 (.83 for 25) True Line +2200




  • 12th or better 11 of the last 14 years at this event. He has been working this year to increase his distance off the tee which he has which should help him even more on this course. 30/1 is just too high of a number for a world class player at one of his favorite courses.




  • Glover +5500 (.45 for 25) True Line +4000




  • Glover has 3 top 4 finishes at this event including a win in 2011. He has been in great form this year finishing 17th or better in 10 of his last 13 starts.




  • An +6000 (.41 for 25) True Line +4500




  • An is a great statistical fit for this course and we get some higher odds than normal after his MC at the Heritage where he was 40/1 in a just as strong field.




  • List +8000 (.31 for 25) True Line +6000




  • List is an elite ball striker who will win on the PGA Tour eventually. His length and consistency off the tee will give him a massive advantage this week.




  • Mitchell +8000 (.31 for 25) True Line +6000




  • Mitchell will have an advantage this week with his length off the tee. He is a brand new player after capturing the win at the Honda. He isnít afraid to contend with the best players in the world. He finished 34th here in his debut last year as PGA Tour rookie when he wasnít even playing that well. 80/1 is just too high for a guy with this much upside.




  • Holmes +8000 (.31 for 25) True Line +6500




  • Holmes is a long hitter who won here in 2014 and also won earlier this year at Torrey Pines. 80/1 is just too high for a guy who we know can win on Tour when his game is on.




  • Mullinax +11000 (.23 for 25) True Line +8000




  • If you watched the Zurich last week, you would have seen how well Mullinax played (carried Stallings most of the event) and how good his swing looks right now. His game is firing on all cylinders and he is one of the longest players on Tour which bodes well for this week.


Total outlay: 2.85 units
Top 10/20:
Top 10:


  • Mickelson +275 (.73 for 2) True Line +185
  • Holmes +700 (.28 for 2) True Line +500
  • List +700 (.28 for 2) True Line +500
  • Mitchell +750 (.27 for 2) True Line +550
  • Streelman +800 (.25 for 2) True Line +600
  • Castro +1400 (.14 for 2) True Line +900


Total outlay: 1.95 units
Top 20:


  • Mickelson +137 (1.46 for 2) True Line -200




  • 12th or better 11 of last 14 years here




  • Streelman +350 (.57 for 2) True Line +250




  • 6th place last 2 starts this year and top 20 3 of last 5 appearances here




  • Mullinax +450 (.44 for 2) True Line +350




  • Swing looked amazing last week and was in full control of his game. His length is big advantage this week.




  • Watney +500 (.4 for 2) True Line +330




  • Top 24 in 8 of last 12 appearances here




  • Hadley +550 (.36 for 2) True Line +400




  • Top 20 each of last 3 appearances here




  • Castro +600 (.33 for 2) True Line +400




  • 2nd and 8th in his last 2 appearances here




  • Byrd +900 (.22 for 2) True Line +550




  • Top 20 in 4 of his last 9 appearances here. Has been very consistent this year. Lacks upside to contend but very good chance to linger and get a top 20.




  • Wagner +900 (.22 for 2) True Line +500




  • This is his home course and he plays it 4-5 times a week when he is at home. Finished 13th here last year. Almost won earlier this year in Puerto Rico.


Total outlay: 4.00 units
Tournament HTH


  • Garcia +145 over Finau (.5 for .73) True Line -110




  • This is an overreaction due to the popular hype of Finau vs the hatred of Garcia. These players are near equal.




  • Dahmen -105 over Reavie (.52 for .5) True Line -155
  • Mickelson +120 over Finau (.6 for .72) True Line -145




  • Itís laughable that Finau is favored here. As mentioned a couple times already above, Mickelson has finished 12th or better here in 11 of last 14 years. Finau has never finished better than 16th in 4 appearances.




  • Holmes +105 over Berger (.5 for .53) True Line -145
  • McIlroy -155 over Fowler (.62 for .4) True Line -190
  • Rose -130 over Matsuyama (.78 for .6) True Line -190




  • This -130 line is an overreaction to the missed cut by Rose at the Masters. Rose is the better player and it is not even close.




  • McIlroy -155 over Day (.62 for .4) True Line -190
  • Rose -140 over Simpson (.84 for .6) True Line -200




  • This -140 line is an overreaction to the missed cut by Rose at the Masters. Rose is the better player and it is not even close. Although Simpson has been playing well of late and this is a home game for him, Rose is still at a clear advantage. Simpson had finished top 20 only 2 times in last 10 years here. Rose has finished top 5 in 2 of last 3 starts here.


Total outlay: 4.98 units

Round 1 HTH -0.14 units


  • An -160 over Gomez (.64 for .4) True Line -210
  • Mitchell -155 over Perez (.77 for .5) True Line -215


Round 2 HTH


  • An -140 over Gomez (.56 for .4) True Line -185 was up 3 with 4 to go and lose
  • Garcia +170 over McIlroy (.2 for .34) True Line +135
  • Glover -120 over Dahmen (.36 for .3) True Line -150
  • Kokrak -145 over Schenk (.58 for .4) True Line -190
  • Mickelson +145 over Day (.3 for .43) True Line +105
  • Mullinax +135 over Bradley (.3 for .41) True Line +100
  • Mitchell -140 over Perez (.84 for .6) True Line -200


Round 3 HTH:


  • Fowler -Ĺ -170 Over Long (.85 for .5) True Line -220
  • Kokrak -Ĺ -165 Over Knous (.82 for .5) True Line -215
  • McIlroy -Ĺ -250 Over Homa (1.25 for .5) True Line -310


First Round Leader -1.47 units


  • Holmes +6600 (.23 for 15)
  • Mitchell +6600 (.23 for 15)
  • Poston +8000 (.19 for 15)
  • Sabbatini +8000 (.19 for 15)
  • Burns +9000 (.16 for 15)
  • Mullinax +9000 (.16 for 15)
  • Varner +12500 (.12 for 15)
  • Every +12500 (.12 for 15)
  • Hoge +20000 (.07 for 15)


Total outlay: 1.47 units
DK Sportsbook Bets


  • Tournament Props (ties lose)




  • Tournament Matchups




  • McIlroy -134 over Day (.67 for .5) True Line -175
  • Mickelson -110 over Stenson (1.65 for 1.5) True Line -220




  • To Make the Cut




  • Mickelson -455 (2.27 for .5) True Line -700




  • 14/14 cuts at this event




  • Howell -400 (2 for .5) True Line -600




  • Missed only 4 cuts last 14 months




  • Kokrak -400 (2 for .5) True Line -650




  • Hasnít missed the cut in his last 19 starts on Tour




  • An -305 (1.52 for .5) True Line -450




  • Only 1 missed cut on PGA Tour in last 10 months




  • Reed -305 (1.52 for .5) True Line -450




  • Only 1 missed cut in last 9 months and has never missed the cut at this event.




  • Round 1 Matchup (ties lose)




  • Mitchell +100 over Perez (.3 for .3) True Line -135


Monkey Knife Fight Props
Round 1:


  • O/U ⅔: Berger over 69.5 strokes,Stenson under 15.5 pars or better, Mickelson over 3.5 birdies




  • Odds: 1.65x for ⅔
  • Amount: 2 for 3.30




  • Rapid Fire 3/3: Finau +0.5 birdies over Rose, Fowler pars or better over Stenson +0.5, Matsuyama less strokes over Berger +0.5




  • Odds: 4.07x for 3/3
  • Amount: .5 for 2.04


Round 2:


  • O/U ⅔: Fowler under 4.5 birdies, Berger over 69.5




  • Odds: 2.31x for 2/2
  • Amount: 1 for 2.31




  • Rapid Fire ⅔: Finau +0.5 birdies over Rose, Fowler +0.5 strokes over Berger, Matsuyama +0.5 pars over Stenson




  • Odds: 1.6x for ⅔
  • Amount: 2 for 3.2




  • Rapid Fire 4/4: Finau +0.5 birdies over Rose, Fowler pars over Stenson +0.5, Matsuyama less strokes over Berger +0.5, Mickelson +0.5 less strokes over Reavie




  • Odds: 7.78x for 4/4
  • Amount: .2 for 1.56




  • Rapid Fire 5/5: Finau +0.5 birdies over Rose, Fowler +0.5 strokes over Berger, Matsuyama +0.5 pars over Stenson, Wise +0.5 birdies over Mickelson, Casey less strokes over Reavie +0.5




  • Odds: 15x for 5/5
  • Amount: .2 for 3


Round 3:


  • No value