2019 Stanley Cup playoffs: Tonight's best bets

HacheMan · May 11, 2019

[h=1]2019 Stanley Cup playoffs: Tonight's best bets[/h]
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With the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs in full swing, there are plenty of betting opportunities every night. Our experts -- Emily Kaplan, Chris Peters, Ben Arledge and Greg Wyshynski -- will be here each day throughout the conference finals and Stanley Cup final, giving their best bets for the evening's games.

All odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise listed. As always, shop around for the best price.

[h=2]Saturday's game[/h]

[h=2]St. Louis Blues (+105) at San Jose Sharks(-125)[/h]Game 1 odds: Blues (+120), Sharks (-130)
Game 1 over/under: 5.5 goals
Peters: I don't love the idea of playing Over/Under in Game 1s in general, but I'll make an exception here. The Sharks have scored five goals on their own in each of the Game 1s in the previous two rounds and have scored five in four of their eight home games so far this postseason. The Shark Tank has been a goal-friendly building in the playoffs, and I'd expect that to continue in what should be a hard-fought Game 1 with both teams getting on the board multiple times. I'm going with the over in this one.

Pick: Over

Wyshynski: <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sharks are 10-2-1-1 after a win on at least two days rest and are averaging 3.65 goals per game at home.

</offer>
Pick: Sharks -125

[h=2]Series picks[/h]

Kaplan: Both teams are resilient, and both have been battle-tested. This shapes up to be a great final. While Martin Jones has turned his postseason around, I trust Jordan Binnington, despite being a rookie, to be the more consistent goalie. In the first four games of the playoffs, Jones had an .838 save percentage, was pulled twice and allowed six goals in the first two minutes of a period. I fear he has the capacity to regress to that, especially if the Blues can sustain pressure like they did against Dallas in Game 7. Stars goalie Ben Bishop was under siege, facing 52 shots, which included St. Louis outshooting Dallas 31-4 over the last two periods of regulation. The Blues have a super-talented top line, and their third line (featuring playoff X factor Pat Maroon, a physical presence with a knack for big moments) is clicking. Play Gloria! I'm taking the Blues in seven.

Arledge: The Blues were the hottest team in the NHL after the All-Star Break, and they turned that momentum into big series wins over the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars. Now I think they take down the favored Sharks, too. The Blues run four lines deep, with three really good ones, and the defense has at least one offensive catalyst on each pairing. Oh, and goalie Jordan Binnington has been an absolute revelation in goal, rolling out a strong .930 even-strength save percentage through two rounds after making a plausible rookie-of-the-year case with a 1.89 goals-against average over 32 regular-season games. St. Louis generates plenty of shot opportunities, especially when the game is on the line -- its 52.6 Corsi Close percentage is third among all 16 playoff teams -- and can't be counted out of any contest after securing two of its eight postseason wins by coming back from a third-period deficit. The Sharks will be the Blues' toughest opponent yet, but I like St. Louis to pay out as the underdog series winner.

Wyshynski: <greg.wyshynski@espn.com style="box-sizing: border-box;"></greg.wyshynski@espn.com>It's been remarkable to watch these two teams rise through the conference bracket, because they both hit that "different hero every night" motif that championship teams possess. The Blues have seen players like Jaden Schwartz, David Perron, Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko and Pat Maroon come through in the clutch in different games. Same thing with the Sharks: One night it's Tomas Hertl, another it's Logan Couture, another it's Erik Karlsson. Heck, Barclay Goodrow and Joonas Donskoi have series-clinching goals. It's been fun.

This series comes down to two main factors: Which forecheck will exert its will on the other, and can the Sharks get enough pucks past rookie sensation Jordan Binnington to make up for the ones that the Blues will get past Martin Jones? (This is no knock on Jones, who has been there when they needed him, but Binnington's been stellar.) I like the Sharks here, with home ice and some cosmic good fortune already in these playoffs, to take it in seven.

Peters: After getting Joe Pavelski back from injury, and with Martin Jones seemingly playing his best hockey of the season, the Sharks look loaded for bear heading into the Western Conference final. The Blues have played excellent hockey throughout the playoffs, and Jordan Binnington has been unfazed by any of the glitz and glam of his first postseason. But there's something about this Sharks squad. As Greg noted, they're getting contributions throughout the lineup. Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson look like their usual, super-productive selves, with 14 and 12 points, respectively. Ultimately, it's Jones' return to form that has inspired more confidence in the men in teal for me. I think the Blues are going to push them, but the Sharks have the goods to go back to the Cup Final this year.

[h=2]Eastern Conference series pick[/h]

Kaplan: I'm picking the Boston Bruins in seven games. A hot goaltender can carry you far, and 32-year-old Rask is playing some of the best hockey of his life right now. Over the past four games of the Blue Jackets series, Rask had a .955 save percentage at even strength. The Canes have the edge on the blue line, and for the Bruins, the loss of Charlie McAvoy for Game 1 (suspension) is significant. But can they overcome it? Brandon Carlo has emerged as a stud in these playoffs; he's the Bruins' No. 1 defenseman and will probably shoulder some big-time minutes. The Bruins should have an upper hand in special teams (their 28.6 percent power play is the best of any playoff team), and their top line -- reunited, finally -- is clicking in a way that's hard to contain. Plus, Boston has been able to find some secondary production in these playoffs, which alleviates some burden.

Arledge: I honestly think this series is a toss-up. Boston has more offensive firepower and a slight advantage in net, while Carolina has the defensive depth. But I lean Carolina over six or seven games, especially since the Hurricanes have gotten nearly a week of rest. Factor in the underdog series price (+130), and it's a worthwhile bet. The Hurricanes have only lost 17 of 55 since New Year's Day, and everything seems to be clicking through two rounds. They've shown the ability to either win a tough Game 7 in overtime on the road or completely overwhelm their opponent in a four-game sweep. The one wild card here? Goalie Petr Mrazek's health. He claims to be "120 percent" following his Round 2 lower-body injury, so it shouldn't be an issue, but it's something to watch before the puck drops in Game 1.

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</article>Peters: It feels like everyone outside of Boston is kind of pulling for the Bunch of Jerks, and Carolina has proven to be better than it was given credit for coming into the postseason. The Hurricanes are a pretty tempting series bet at +130. If you wanted to enhance your rooting interest in the lovable underdogs, I think they'd be worth a conservative bet. That said, the Bruins have the depth and the hot goaltending right now. That's a pretty deadly combination. Meanwhile, Brad Marchand has been uncontainable throughout the postseason. As long as he stays out of trouble and the Bruins' depth continues to assist in the offensive attack, Boston will be going back to the Stanley Cup final.

Wyshynski: The Bunch of Jerks are going to make this thing a fight to the end. They're the best possession team in the playoffs and every bit as good at 5-on-5 as the Bruins -- perhaps even a bit better, especially as they get healthier following the Islanders series. But Rask is having the playoffs of his life, with a .938 save percentage to lead the playoffs and 5.63 goals saved above average at 5-on-5. But the real advantage here is on special teams, as the Bruins' power play is the best in the playoffs at 28.6 percent and their penalty kill is fifth at 83.8 percent. The Hurricanes have four goals on 38 power play chances (10.5 percent) and a penalty kill at 75 percent. Bruins in seven.