Sunday Service Play Thread 5/12/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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ROB VENO BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (521) Philadelphia 76ers at (522) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: May 12 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 209.0 (-110)
 

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Big Al 5* raptors
 

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Tim Wilkerson (VegasInsider)

MLB - Toronto Blue Jays -118

NBA
Trailblazers/Nuggets Under 213.5
Philadelphia 76ers +6
 

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Chris Davis (VegasInsider - Soccer Handicapper)

League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Manchester City at Brighton & Hove
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET

Best Bet: Under 3 ½ (-105), Both Teams to Score – No (-160)
The Citizens need three points to capture the 2018-19 Premier League title on Sunday and while many would’ve liked to see some drama, it’s highly unlikely. Manchester City could get tested early on the road, especially if Brighton scores – something it’s done in its last two games. City hasn’t been as explosive down the stretch, scoring just one goal in six of its last 10 wins. The pair have played twice this season, and City captured 1-0 and 2-0 wins. I believe this could turn out to be a 3-0 win for the visitor but probably less.

League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Everton at Tottenham
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET

est Bet: Under 2 ½ (+105), Under 1 ½ (+350)
Tottenham has owned this series recently, winning four straight games against Everton and they’ve put up plenty of crooked numbers by outscoring them 16-4 during this span. I don’t see another wild outcome, rather a tight match especially after Tottenham’s huge CL win at Ajax this past Wednesday. The Everton defense has been on fire, eight clean sheets in last 10 EPL matches. Hard to imagine either team scoring two goals and I’ll be cheering for the scoreless draw or 1-0 victory.

League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Wolverhampton at Liverpool
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET

Best Bet: Over 3 ½ (+160), Both Teams to Score – Yes (+105)
Wolverhampton has gone 2-1 with a pair of 2-1 victories in its last three meetings against Liverpool. Along with the revenge factor, Liverpool has an outside chance at the title if it wins and Man City draws or loses. I don’t see either of those results happening and I believe the Reds will play looser and put on an offensive show as it finds out its fate. Over the last three years, we’ve seen 9 teams score 4-plus goals in Matchday 38 and five clubs put up 5 or more. I’ll buy into the fireworks at Anfield on Sunday

League: Premier League (England)
Matchup: Cardiff City at Manchester United
Date / Time: Sunday, May 12 - 10:00 a.m. ET

Best Bet: Under 3 ½ (-120), Both Teams to Score – No (+100)
Tough season for the Red Devils and even tougher for Cardiff City, who have been relegated from the Premier League. This game is a formality and while the assumption is that both teams will have a go at it, I don’t see it. United beat Cardiff 5-1 in the reverse fixture and reports of youngsters receiving minutes for Manchester in the finale has me a bit skeptical. Cardiff’s offense (11 goals) has been very weak on the road and I don’t see them hitting the net in the finale.
 

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King creole

2*
Toronto -7
 

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Ben Burns

3*TOW
Denver / Portland under 213
 

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Stephen Nover

2*
Boston / Carolina under 5.5
 

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TONY FINN


BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN SUN MLB TOP TOTAL
Game: (965) Los Angeles Angels at (966) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: May 12 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Under the Total of 9 (good to 8.5)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Canning and Means

(965) Los Angeles Angels at (966) Baltimore Orioles

The Angels lack of quality pitching is their Achilles, that and their ineptness against left-handed pitching. Rookie starter Grif Canning has been their rotational best this season and that figures to continue against the O's on Sunday. this offseason. Canning tossed 5.1 innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts in Detroit this past Tuesday. In two starts (9.2 innings) his 4.66 ERA is somewhat due to batted ball luck. His 13:2 K:BB points to success against lineups that are less than middling like Baltimore.

Canning was in the 92-93 m.p.h. range versus Detroit with his four-seamer and will remain there with success his first time or two through the league... or when the return of Andrew Heaney is back with the club after his IL stint. It won't be a surprise to see him replace either/or Matt Harvey or Trevor Cahill.

John Means 2.48 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through five starts isn't sustainable but are supported by his 23% K, 6% BB, and 15% SwStr. His plus changeup makes him a tough matchup for right-handed heavy lineups. Means changeup is a plus pitch because it finds its way to the K-zone (40%) and gets hitters to chase it out of the zone (40%). The Angels have not faced the youngster at any point live and have a ridiculously poor .212/.295/.361 slash line versus southpaws this season.

Scheduled home plate umpire Nick Mahrley is new-school when it comes to strike zones. He has an expanded zone and his K:BB ration this year tops all umps at 3.64.

Under the Total of 9
ESPN SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL CASH 2-0
Game: (963) Milwaukee Brewers at (964) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: May 12 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago Cubs -130

View Analysis

PLAY: Chicago Cubs -130 (good to -145)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Chacin and Lester

(963) Milwaukee Brewers at (964) Chicago Cubs

A quick glance of tomorrow's day game lineup will find the depth of the cubs bench and bullpen offering over-the-top favor for the Northsiders. The Cubs can thank Chatwood and his four innings of relief in yesterday's 15 inning Cubbie win in combination with Hamels' seven innings of work to begin the game.

In addition take the Milwaukee player personnel out of the Brewery and throw a lefty at them and they are pedestrian drunk.

Milwaukee's road slash line of .226/.314/.386 ranks right there with the likes of the Miami Marlins, near the bottom of the NL offensive road stats. And while the Crew have a slash line of .262/.337/.481 against lefties on the season these numbers are what they are when they are swinging under the Miller Park roof. Proof of such is in the pudding... glance at the box score in yesterday's one run against Mr. Cole.

The Brewers are uber-dependent on being over-the-top offensive to succeed. And for those that want to argue with me on this I will make a single point that rests my case. When Chacin is a team's Opening Day starter then that club can't possibly be postseason worthy because of their starting rotation.

Chacin's success this season has come against sleepy offenses and injury depleted clubs. In addition right-handed heavy lineups. The dichotomy of Chacin's splits a season ago, righties vs lefties, was an absolute crime against sports bettors that don't dig deep. Chacin's slash line versus right-handed hitters was .178/.244/.284. Hence his middling success. This year it has not been as favorable; e.g. .235/.307/.426 and the result is his 5.03 ERA and near 5.00 xFIP.

The Cubs' lineup on Sunday night will be left-handed heavy and Chacin will be subject to batted ball luck. His lack of strikeouts subjects him to such and his last years surface numbers were a mirage. He outperformed his pay grade in nearly every category and benefited from a .250 BABIP well below his career .299 BABIP. His hard contact percentage a year ago was a career low... this year it is nearly 40 percent.

Expecting the Brewers to qualify for the postseason behind a No. 1 starter with the skill set of Chacin is... fool's gold... and equal to the value of waterfront property in the Everglades.

Lester allowed two unearned runs, surrendered eight hits and pitched around base runners in the fifth and six innings of a win over a pedestrian Marlins offense in his last start. Two starts back the veteran lefty was in Seattle facing a lineup that has done their best work of the season against southpaws. Lester pitched seven innings of scoreless one-hit ball.

As grumpy as the big lefty can be, and as old and tired as he appears at time walking from the dugout to both the mound and the batter’s box he is has had his best April into May... of his career... bottom line. The Cubs elderly starter now ranks in the top 5 in MLB in ERA. Yes, I don't put a huge value on ERA and believe it is the most abused pitching stat... ever. It isn't an accurate measure of a pitchers ability.

That said Lester's ERA of 1.41 and WHIP of 1.03 are the best surface number the 35-year old has had at this point of a young season. Only once in the last seven years has Jon Lester had an ERA over 4.00. That was in 2017, the one year he had a strand rate below 70%.

In fact, his ERA often goes as his strand rate goes, and through five starts this year his strand rate is an unsustainable 96%. And the answer is NO to any questions about whether he or any pitcher can continue to strand runners at a rate only God can. What is most promising is that he has been at his best, at any point in his career, at situational pitching. Meaning he has the lowest hard hit rate of his career with runners on base. When the bases are empty his hard contact is 40-plus percent... he is pitching to contact with a solid ground ball to fly ball ratio and when asked has spent the extra energy with added velocity when he is in the stretch.

It has been, without question, hard to watch at time but mostly remarkable, how Lester is able to minimize damage without a higher swing and miss percentage. The current delta between his ERA and FIP will close as the season progresses. He is in no way shape or form a pitcher that can maintain a 1.41 ERA. But his mound IQ is ridiculously elite and in this contest it is more about how we only need a pedestrian performance from Lester tonight for the cubs to have a 66 percent chance of winning, and doing so by margin, because of the visitors starting pitcher and over-used bullpen.

CHICAGO CUBS -130
 

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TONY FINN BASKETBALL PLAYS

FINN NBA WEST CONF PRIVATE PLAY (8-3)
Game: (525) Portland Trail Blazers at (526) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: May 12 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-105)

View Analysis

PLAY: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (good to -7)
4% game rating
(525) Portland Trail Blazers at (526) Denver Nuggets

Short and to the point in this Western Semi finale analysis. As this series has progressed into a one-game showdown the two most obvious variables play the deciding factors in this afternoon tilt at altitude. First for the visiting Trail Blazers their survival and advancement depend on the play of All-Star guard Lillard. As The Dame goes so go the Blazers. And while Lillard has had his moments in the last pair of games the fatigue evidence both from his pedestrian play in stretches to coach giving him pine time in important situations make him and his mates a very difficult group to back and one much easier to fade.

Nuggets head coach Malone has shown the fans, the media and the enemy his hand in this postseason card game. And because of such it might appear to be a vanilla game-plan, a Plane Jane way to attack what is easily the biggest stage the coach has been tested in his career, but how and who - he will scheme and play in this Game 7 - will be a rinse and repeat. There will be little to no rest, bench minutes, for Jokic.

The series ends and does so with a double-digit margin of victory for the best home court advantage in the league, by the Nuggets, on the Pepsi Center floor at a Mile High.

Portland has survived and advanced in the series due to their advantages with Jokic on the bench. Malone has already whispered in the ear of his Big to get a good night sleep because he can rest when he's old and retired. Malone will extend Jokic's minutes, as he did in Game 7 vs. San Antonio - and how he did in Game 3 of this series (Jokic played the entire second half and nearly every second of the four overtimes).

Game, Set and Match -- The Nuggets push the pace in the first half, use their superior backcourt depth, and have the Blazers huffing and puffing in the fourth and final stanza.

DENVER NUGGETS -5.5
 

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baseball33

Los Angeles Dodgers -1
 

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Greg shaker

3*
Philadelphia / Toronto over 209
 

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Karl Garrett - NHL Winner # 8 of 12

50 DIME
DOUBLE WAGER
WINNER # 3 IN A ROW

Playoff Underdog

Bruins
 

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Marlins / Mets PPD

This afternoon’s game has been postponed due to inclement weather and rescheduled as part of a single-admission doubleheader on Monday, August 5 at 4:10 p.m.
 

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Seabass : 300 cardinals runline , 300 royals , 400 twins RL, 500 sf giants game under , 700 angles game under , 400 bruins game under ,1000 * nuggets game under , 1000 * raptors
 

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