Friedeggpaulie

Week 19: Byron Nelson
I was waiting a bit this week to fire our bets because I needed to confirm the course conditions and weather as that greatly affects who has an advantage this week. The course has received a fair amount of rain over the past week or so which caused softer than normal conditions. Wednesday morning the course was absolutely pummelled with rain which means that the course will play extremely soft even though its a course that is meant to play firm and fast. What does that mean for us? Well, there is a massive edge for bombers off the tee because this course has very wide landing areas so players will be able to rip driver and play aggressive. With the soft conditions, you will also see guys be able to stop their approach shots easily on the severely undulating greens. So long story short: Long drivers who have the ability to make a lot of birdies are the players who have the advantage this week and most likely will be underpriced and undervalued.

Updates Made:

  • Outrights, Top 10, Top 20, Tournament HTH, R1 HTH, FRL, DK Sportsbook Bets, One-and-Done Advice, MKF Prop bets added 1:13 pm CST Wednesday
  • MKF R2 Props posted 8:12 pm CST Thu
  • R2 Matchups posted 11:27 pm CST Thu
  • R3 Matchups posted 7:29 am Sat


Outrights:

  • Keith Mitchell +3300 ( .76 for 25) True Line +2500
  • Thomas Pieters +5000 (.50 for 25) True Line +4000
  • Lucas Bjerregaard +5000 (.50 for 25) True Line +4000
  • Ryan Palmer +6000 (.42 for 25) True Line +4500
  • Trey Mullinax +7000 (.35 for 25) True Line +5500
  • Scott Stallings +11000 (.22 for 25) True Line +8500

Top 10:

  • Keith Mitchell +275 (.72 for 2) True Line +220
  • Thomas Pieters +450 (.44 for 2) True Line +375
  • Lucas Bjerregaard +500 (.4 for 2) True Line +400
  • Ryan Palmer +500 (.4 for 2) True Line +400
  • Trey Mullinax +600 (.33 for 2) True Line +500
  • Scott Stallings +900 (.22 for 2) True Line +700

Total outlay: 2.51 units
Top 20:

  • Sabbatini +225 (.88 for 2) True Line +170
  • Scheffler +250 (.8 for 2) True Line +180
  • Mullinax +300 (.66 for 2) True Line +240
  • Stallings +450 (.44 for 2) True Line +350

Total outlay: 2.78 units
Tournament HTH Matchups:

  • Pieters +125 over Olesen (.4 for .5) True Line -115
  • Poston -130 over Harman (.52 for .4) True Line -165
  • Harding +135 over Cauley (1.5 for 2.03) True Line -165
  • Koepka -120 over Matsuyama (.72 for .6) True Line -170
  • Palmer -115 over Noren (1.72 for 1.5) True Line -210

First Round Leader: -1.53 units Hoge finished 2nd and missed leading at 200/1 by 1 shot!!!!!!!!

  • Mitchell +4000 (.37 for 15)
  • Sabbatini +6000 (.25 for 15)
  • Palmer +6600 (.23 for 15)
  • Bjerregaard +6600 (.23 for 15)
  • Stallings +9000 (.16 for 15)
  • Clark +10000 (.15 for 15)
  • Hagy +20000 (.07 for 15)
  • Hoge +20000 (.07 for 15)

Total outlay: 1.53 units
Round 1 Matchups: -0.20 units

  • Mitchell -135 over Pan (.4 for .3) True Line -170
  • Sabbatini -115 over Noren (.34 for .3) True Line -150
  • Im -125 over Ancer (.5 for .4) True Line -170
  • Spieth +150 over Matsuyama (.3 for .45) True Line +110 lost by 1


  • Overreaction to books for one single round results on Spieth’s home course.


  • Laird -110 over Aphibarnrat (.33 for .3) True Line -140


  • Books are missing out on the fact that Aphibarnrat is fighting through a leg injury which they originally thought would cause him to miss a few months

Round 2 Matchups: +1.20 units

  • Laird -115 over Aphibarnrat (.46 for .4) True Line -160
  • Koepka -150 over Wise (.6 for .4) True Line -200
  • Sabbatini -115 over Noren (.46 for .4) True Line -160

Round 3 Matchups

  • Matsuyama -170 Over Aphibarnrat (.68 for .4) True Line -220


DK Sportsbook Bets:

  • Tournament Props


  • Tournament Matchups


  • Im -118 over Ancer (.35 for .3) True Line -150


  • To Make the Cut


  • Wise -305 (1.52 for .5) True Line -430
  • Mitchell -250 (2.5 for 1) True Line -450
  • Sabbatini -250 (1.25 for .5) True Line -340
  • Scheffler -177 (1.77 for 1) True Line -325


  • Round 1 Matchups (ties lose)


  • Mitchell -106 over Pan (.42 for .4) True Line -150 lost because it tied
  • Sabbatini +100 over Noren (.3 for .3) True Line -130


  • Round 2 Matchups (ties lose)


  • Cabrera Bello -110 over Burns (.33 for .3)

Monkey Knife Fight Props:
Round 1:
Barely any props posted on MKF for round 1 (only 6 players listed in total amongst the props even though 156 players in the field). Will need more options posted in order to get value.
Round 2:

  • Bunch of Birdies: Koepka, Mitchell, Spieth


  • Odds: 1.5x for over 12.5
  • Amount: 3 for 4.5


  • Bunch of Birdies: Koepka, Mitchell, Matsuyama


  • Odds: 1.5x for over 12.5
  • Amount: 3 for 4.5

Round 3:

  • No value