NFL Profitable Trends...

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Hey guys,


New here, but I've been a long time sports bettor for 7 years now. Just curious if we can get a discussion on profitable NFL trends. I'm sure we all have one or two trends that we can contribute here. Whoever posts a trend, I'm more than happy to keep record of it during the season here compared with the other trends as long as it is serious (not dogs cover on cloudy days).


One of my favorite trends is when a team has 3 upcoming games...Division Rival-Normal Game-Division Rival. In this case I like to fade this team in the second game as they are sandwiched between two huge and draining matchups.


Anyway, whether futures/in-game/quarter/props just post a trend you find to be profitable. I'm sure if we all work together we can really increase our profits this upcoming season and help beat the bookies.


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fade west coast teams playing morning game on the east coast

fade east coast team playing at night on the west coast
 

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thanks 3pointdog. I've always heard of this trend, but I've never really looked into it. I'll keep track of it this season
 
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Fade a black qb when playing against a good secondary or after he has a decent game the week before.
 

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[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Week 1
Division dogs

since 2014[/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]17-4-1 ats[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]11-10-1 straight up[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Packers [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Giants [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Redskins [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Bills [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Raiders

—————

[/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Week 2
[/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Teams playing on the road for the first two weeks to start the season .

since 2015 [/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]1-14 ats[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]2-13 su[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]
49ers [/FONT][/FONT]

[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Bills [/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Chiefs
Colts [/FONT][/FONT]
 

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Week 1 division dog play should be the Broncos not Raiders from above post .
 

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Chicago Bears are 18-4 ATS before playing the Detroit Lions including 2-0 last year.

2019: Nov. 3rd Eagles and Nov. 24th Giants. GL
 

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Games with high winds I typically bet the under.

I always fade a team if there is a disaster/major bad weather that will impact the players home team. ex. Miami is expecting a hurricane. Miami is playing away. My thought is that the players will not be focused on the game and instead will be thinking of their family/friends at home. play is to fade Miami
 

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Just a general comment on trends. Unless these trends are a high %, you are typically looking at needing at least a sample size of 50-100 for it to be statistically significant ( 95% chance of being right or a 5% error) .

If it hits at 80% you need just 20 games. At 70%, you need ~ 50 games. But you can see in Graph 1 as the win % decreases, much larger samples are needed. ie a trend of 60% needs a sample of 500.

Just a caveat. Stanford Wong popularized this in his book "Sharp sports betting" too FYI

https://www.sportsinsights.com/sports-investing-statistical-significance/
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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There's a poster here called NFL trends - He is my favorite trends @):).

In all serious when he posts pay close attention
 

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