Thursday Service Play Thread 5/23/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Let's go Brandon!
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TONY FINN

BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN THU MLB PRIVATE PLAY (8-0)
Game: (913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: May 23 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100)

PLAY: Tampa Bay -1.5 runs
4% game rating

LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Plutko

(913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Cleveland Indians

The Rays departed the Gulf Coast last night off an impressive 8-1 victory over the visiting LA Dodgers. The Thursday twilight contest in Cleveland is time slot that makes Rays' southpaw Snell better than he is. And the Cy Young winner from a season ago enters the Thursday night game in Cleveland off a no-decision at Yankee Stadium where he tossed 6 innings of six hit and one run baseball striking out in and walking one. Across his last three starts, two versus the Yankees and an interleague outing against the Diamondback has seen pitch 17.2 innings surrendering 11 hits, three runs, striking out 30 against three walks without giving up a home run.

After allowing five runs to the Houston Astros in his season debut he worked the next four games against pedestrian lineups allowing just three earned runs. His next start, on May Day, saw him suffer a trio of seeing eye ground ball base hits and a home run resulting surrendering seven runs, a home run, with three walks against two strikeouts... to the Kansas City Royals at "The K".

Snell's 3.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are the result of not being sharp in his season debut against the best offense in baseball Houston and a flawed statistical game line in Kansas City against the Royals. Snell has 71 K's in 49 innings. He has allowed 37 hits and owns a 71:12 K/BB ratio. The six home runs allowed the season find three of those coming in the March 28th start against the Astros.

The Cleveland Indians current lineup, projected for Thursday night's contest at Progressive is slashing .228/.312/.376 versus southpaws this season. Only the Texas Rangers and LA Angels are hitting for a lower percentage against lefties.

When tasked to square of left-handed pitching this season the Indians have struck out 126 times in 439 at-bats. The math works out to the Tribe striking out 29 percent of their at-bats against LHP. And the lineup has walked at an 11 percent clip in at-bats against left-handers.

At the plate the Indians have been abysmal against secondary pitches. 35 percent of their swinging strikes come versus sliders and curves and their hard contact when they put a ball in play is less than 25 percent. The Indians have very similar underlying peripherals to that of National League Arizona without the power. Three starts back Snell faced an Arizona lineup that also scuffles against almost everything but fastballs with a chase rate similar to the Indians, as well. Snell dominated the Diamondbacks' lineup, the same lineup that had just scored 27 runs in a weekend series against the Rockies and at the time of Snell's start at the Trop versus Arizona the Diamondbacks ranked fourth in the majors in runs per game. Snell took a perfect game into the sixth inning vs Zona and finished allowing one hit striking out nine and walking none.

Cleveland starter Adam Plutko will make his second straight rotational start for the Tribe. On the surface, albeit in a vacuum, the start five days ago by Plutko, was the best of his big league career. With that it is important to note it came against a Baltimore offense that has an on-base percentage, as a team, that lives in the same neighborhood as Detroit, Miami, San Francisco, Toronto, San Diego and Cincinnati. Five of the aforementioned teams are five of six lineups that have scored the least runs in all of baseball. Baltimore strikes out, from both sides of the plate, 26 percent of all at-bats.

So while Plutko allowed just one hit and one run in six innings of work in a victory over the Orioles on Saturday afternoon one must take strength of schedule, lineup in this case, into consideration. The Bookmakers have issued a .20 deflated money line to Snell based on Plutko's performance Saturday.

Most noteworthy of Plutko isn't his start and finish against the Birds but the reasons for him not being with the parent club, period. Plutko was brought up from triple-A on Friday, started on Saturday, and rewarded the Indians a win in a spot start. Plutko has been called up before, and returned to the farm. The fact he is in AAA rather than AA speaks to his pay grade. He isn't a young kid out of high school. Nor is he one of the Tribes top prospects. The 27-year-old was called after pitching just 5.1 innings on the farm carrying a heavy 10.13 ERA across those 5-and-change innings of work. in just 5.1 innings in triple-A this season, so he doesn’t figure to be much of a part of the Indians pitching staff this season, but it was one heck of a start.

TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs (+100)
 

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Fezzik

2*
Detroit -160
 

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Pittsburgh -129
 

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Atlanta / San Francisco under 7.5


2*(NBA)
Milwaukee -7
 

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Milwaukee / Toronto under 218.5
 

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Milwaukee -7
 

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Stephen Oh

HOUSTON -181


CHI. WHITE SOX @ HOUSTON | 5/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
10:27 AM
Lucas Giolito has dominated the competition the last three games, allowing two runs over 19.1 innings. But the Astros are the top-hitting team in the league and they've actually gotten better as Jose Altuve heals on the IL. Houston wins over 70 percent of my simulations -- the money line on the home Astros should be closer to -250.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-17 IN LAST 44 HOU ML PICKS | +1541

18-10 IN LAST 28 CHW ML PICKS | +907


CLEVELAND +116


TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND | 5/23 | 6:10 PM EDT
10:23 AM
The Indians just got swept by the A's at home and now welcome into town the hotter Rays. Only twice has Cleveland been a home underdog, and it lost both. But my projections see a close game between the Rays and their bullpen strategy and Indians starter Adam Plutko, who allowed one hit over six innings in his season debut last time out. Cleveland wins nearly 50 percent of my simulations, which puts value on the Indians at this money line.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-12 IN LAST 39 TB ML PICKS | +1824

26-17 IN LAST 43 CLE ML PICKS | +1269


N.Y. YANKEES -222


N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 5/23 | 12:35 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:07 PM
My data shows the Yankees beating the Orioles in nearly 75 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting. My numbers also have them winning by more than two runs in those victories. These lopsided factors are enough to justify laying the price with New York. The Yankees are 16-5 when Masahiro Tanaka starts in the road against opponents with losing records. The Orioles are just 1-6 in the last seven home starts by Dylan Bundy.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-17 IN LAST 44 NYY ML PICKS | +1198

8-5 IN LAST 13 BAL ML PICKS | +184


UNDER 8.5 MIAMI @ DETROIT | 5/23 | 1:10 PM EDT


YESTERDAY 9:50 PM
My numbers see eight runs or fewer crossing the plate Thursday between the Marlins and Tigers, providing a strong position on the Under against the posted total. The Under is hitting in nearly two-thirds of simulations for this contest. Miami has played Under in six of its last eight interleague games. Detroit is 4-1 to the Under when Matthew Boyd pitches on full rest.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIA O/U PICKS | +80
 

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Stephen Oh

HOUSTON -181


CHI. WHITE SOX @ HOUSTON | 5/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
10:27 AM
Lucas Giolito has dominated the competition the last three games, allowing two runs over 19.1 innings. But the Astros are the top-hitting team in the league and they've actually gotten better as Jose Altuve heals on the IL. Houston wins over 70 percent of my simulations -- the money line on the home Astros should be closer to -250.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-17 IN LAST 44 HOU ML PICKS | +1541

18-10 IN LAST 28 CHW ML PICKS | +907


CLEVELAND +116


TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND | 5/23 | 6:10 PM EDT
10:23 AM
The Indians just got swept by the A's at home and now welcome into town the hotter Rays. Only twice has Cleveland been a home underdog, and it lost both. But my projections see a close game between the Rays and their bullpen strategy and Indians starter Adam Plutko, who allowed one hit over six innings in his season debut last time out. Cleveland wins nearly 50 percent of my simulations, which puts value on the Indians at this money line.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-12 IN LAST 39 TB ML PICKS | +1824

26-17 IN LAST 43 CLE ML PICKS | +1269


N.Y. YANKEES -222


N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 5/23 | 12:35 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:07 PM
My data shows the Yankees beating the Orioles in nearly 75 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting. My numbers also have them winning by more than two runs in those victories. These lopsided factors are enough to justify laying the price with New York. The Yankees are 16-5 when Masahiro Tanaka starts in the road against opponents with losing records. The Orioles are just 1-6 in the last seven home starts by Dylan Bundy.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
27-17 IN LAST 44 NYY ML PICKS | +1198

8-5 IN LAST 13 BAL ML PICKS | +184


UNDER 8.5 MIAMI @ DETROIT | 5/23 | 1:10 PM EDT


YESTERDAY 9:50 PM
My numbers see eight runs or fewer crossing the plate Thursday between the Marlins and Tigers, providing a strong position on the Under against the posted total. The Under is hitting in nearly two-thirds of simulations for this contest. Miami has played Under in six of its last eight interleague games. Detroit is 4-1 to the Under when Matthew Boyd pitches on full rest.

63-39 IN LAST 102 MLB PICKS | +2549
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIA O/U PICKS | +80

Does anyone know if these records are verified? I feel like he posts insane records in every sport.
 

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TONY FINN

BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN THU MLB PRIVATE PLAY (8-0)
Game: (913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: May 23 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100)

PLAY: Tampa Bay -1.5 runs
4% game rating

LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Plutko

(913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Cleveland Indians

The Rays departed the Gulf Coast last night off an impressive 8-1 victory over the visiting LA Dodgers. The Thursday twilight contest in Cleveland is time slot that makes Rays' southpaw Snell better than he is. And the Cy Young winner from a season ago enters the Thursday night game in Cleveland off a no-decision at Yankee Stadium where he tossed 6 innings of six hit and one run baseball striking out in and walking one. Across his last three starts, two versus the Yankees and an interleague outing against the Diamondback has seen pitch 17.2 innings surrendering 11 hits, three runs, striking out 30 against three walks without giving up a home run.

After allowing five runs to the Houston Astros in his season debut he worked the next four games against pedestrian lineups allowing just three earned runs. His next start, on May Day, saw him suffer a trio of seeing eye ground ball base hits and a home run resulting surrendering seven runs, a home run, with three walks against two strikeouts... to the Kansas City Royals at "The K".

Snell's 3.31 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are the result of not being sharp in his season debut against the best offense in baseball Houston and a flawed statistical game line in Kansas City against the Royals. Snell has 71 K's in 49 innings. He has allowed 37 hits and owns a 71:12 K/BB ratio. The six home runs allowed the season find three of those coming in the March 28th start against the Astros.

The Cleveland Indians current lineup, projected for Thursday night's contest at Progressive is slashing .228/.312/.376 versus southpaws this season. Only the Texas Rangers and LA Angels are hitting for a lower percentage against lefties.

When tasked to square of left-handed pitching this season the Indians have struck out 126 times in 439 at-bats. The math works out to the Tribe striking out 29 percent of their at-bats against LHP. And the lineup has walked at an 11 percent clip in at-bats against left-handers.

At the plate the Indians have been abysmal against secondary pitches. 35 percent of their swinging strikes come versus sliders and curves and their hard contact when they put a ball in play is less than 25 percent. The Indians have very similar underlying peripherals to that of National League Arizona without the power. Three starts back Snell faced an Arizona lineup that also scuffles against almost everything but fastballs with a chase rate similar to the Indians, as well. Snell dominated the Diamondbacks' lineup, the same lineup that had just scored 27 runs in a weekend series against the Rockies and at the time of Snell's start at the Trop versus Arizona the Diamondbacks ranked fourth in the majors in runs per game. Snell took a perfect game into the sixth inning vs Zona and finished allowing one hit striking out nine and walking none.

Cleveland starter Adam Plutko will make his second straight rotational start for the Tribe. On the surface, albeit in a vacuum, the start five days ago by Plutko, was the best of his big league career. With that it is important to note it came against a Baltimore offense that has an on-base percentage, as a team, that lives in the same neighborhood as Detroit, Miami, San Francisco, Toronto, San Diego and Cincinnati. Five of the aforementioned teams are five of six lineups that have scored the least runs in all of baseball. Baltimore strikes out, from both sides of the plate, 26 percent of all at-bats.

So while Plutko allowed just one hit and one run in six innings of work in a victory over the Orioles on Saturday afternoon one must take strength of schedule, lineup in this case, into consideration. The Bookmakers have issued a .20 deflated money line to Snell based on Plutko's performance Saturday.

Most noteworthy of Plutko isn't his start and finish against the Birds but the reasons for him not being with the parent club, period. Plutko was brought up from triple-A on Friday, started on Saturday, and rewarded the Indians a win in a spot start. Plutko has been called up before, and returned to the farm. The fact he is in AAA rather than AA speaks to his pay grade. He isn't a young kid out of high school. Nor is he one of the Tribes top prospects. The 27-year-old was called after pitching just 5.1 innings on the farm carrying a heavy 10.13 ERA across those 5-and-change innings of work. in just 5.1 innings in triple-A this season, so he doesn’t figure to be much of a part of the Indians pitching staff this season, but it was one heck of a start.

TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs (+100)


Tony Finns play cancelled for pitching change
 

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