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Thread: Monday Memorial Day Service Play Thread 5/27/2019

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  1. #1 Monday Memorial Day Service Play Thread 5/27/2019 
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    Ben Burns

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    Stephen Nover

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  6. #6  
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    TONY FINN
    BASEBALL PLAYS
    FINN MEMORIAL DAY MLB HI-ROLLER 19-5
    Game: (905) Arizona Diamondbacks at (906) Colorado Rockies
    Date/Time: May 27 2019 3:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Heritage
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +105

    View Analysis

    PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks +105 (good to -130)
    4% game rating

    LIST PITCHERS: Greinke and Gray

    (905) Arizona Diamondbacks at (906) Colorado Rockies

    Greinke performed well enough in his last turn versus the Padres to earn a league leading seventh win. However the former Cy Young winner didn’t receive the necessary run-support from his teammates. Greinke surrendered three runs on four hits (one homer) and one walk with five strikeouts in seven innings of work.

    Since a late March turn, Greinke and the D'Backs season opener in which Greinke allowed seven earned runs, he has allowed three or fewer runs in all 10 starts. He has seen his ERA drop to 2.89 as a result. And the Arizona right-hander has completed seven innings in six of his last eight starts -- all of which have been penned as quality outings.

    Greinke doesn't have the mid-90's velo he once did but his baseball IQ is ridiculous and his current form is a mismatch to the level Gray is pitching at, and nothing short of a dream that Gray could ever achieve.

    The current Colorado Rockies, who have a history versus Greinke, unsuccessful for all intent and purpose, have a total of 239 at-bats versus the former Cy Young winner. In those 239 AB's the Colorado bats have hit 13 home runs - with only a trio of players having accounted for the long balls. The three being Blackmon, Reynolds and Story. And those Colorado player personnel with 10-or-more at-bats versus Greinke only two have an on-base percentage of .325 or better.

    The D'backs ace exited his season debut, following by three April starts, with a 5.79 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this thru his first four turns. Since mid-April Greinke has proved to be not just the best 35 year old right-hander in the game but equal to those young guns hitting triple-digits on the radar gun.

    The single variable when viewing Greinke's peripherals that is a liability, a concern for some MLB pundits, his hard contact percentage. However, as has been the case with Zach his entire career, he knows when to throw a light and heavy ball. Greinke's high end hard-contact is coming when the bases are empty. Greinke's most impressive number this season are coming when he is in the stretch. And he has mitigated any hard contact issue with a 30% K=rate. His 9% SwStr does not support his 30% K, but again, this is who Greinke is. He knows when and when not to challenge a hitter in a specific situation and has zero issue pitching around a hitter followed by working around the free pass.

    Greinke does have elite control, and elite FIP and has done so with a league average in BABIP. Greinke's ERA, FIP, and xFIP are closely aligned and his current form, despite a subpar initial four starts to the season, is nothing short of elite. He sports a ridiculous 0.87 WHIP and all of his surface and hidden numbers so far this 2019 season are better than his career marks.
    04-26

    Gray is off a victory over the Bucs in which he worked seven innings of three run baseball. He surrendered seven hits, one walk while striking out seven. Two starts back he earned the loss after allowing five earned runs over 4 and 2/3 innings, while striking out 8 and walking 3. Gray has, never lived up to the potential that has followed him, including underachieving in connection to his FIP.

    2015: ERA vs FIP (5.53 ERA vs 3.63 FIP
    2018: 5.12 ERA vs 4.08 FIP)

    There has been a change in his 2019 splits..
    2019: 4.28 ERA vs 4.70 FIP

    Gray is pitching with a near 5 percent increase in hard contact and a career high 1.66 HR/9. Almost 25% of the flyballs Gray has allowed this season have left the ball park.

    And it hasn't been for the reason he pitches half of his game from the Coors mound. His ERA is better at home (4.00) than on the road (4.40).

    Arizona is playing their best baseball of the season. They are hitting right-handers as hard as they are lefties and getting great bullpen support from the seventh inning on.

    In his career Greinke has lost only one game at Coors Field. And in his 15 year career that loss didn't come in 2017. Greinke's surface numbers are the equivalent to eye candy. His underlying peripherals have the Cy Winner equal to any pitcher in baseball. A statement that is bottom line bare naked TRUTH.

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    Mlbtotal

    Los Angeles Dodgers , Over 7
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    Dave Essler

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    Vince Akins (32-19 L14 days)

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    Stephen Oh

    PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 5/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 8:39 PM
    The Pirates have won five of six over the Reds so far this season, but that reverses in a big way Monday according to my projections. Sonny Gray deals and the Reds' bullpen helps in shutting down the Pirates offense. Cincy wins a whopping 74 percent of my simulations against the Pirates and Mitch Keller.

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    DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/27 | 1:05 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 8:37 PM
    My projections aren't liking Daniel Norris going against an Orioles offense that can score in the right situations. Baltimore averages more than five runs in my simulations, while the Tigers are held down. The Orioles win nearly 70 percent of my simulations, a huge number and at basically an even-odds price. Jump on the O's.

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    Adam Thompson


    CHI. CUBS +165


    CHI. CUBS @ HOUSTON | 5/27 | 2:10 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 8:27 PM
    Picking against Houston at home is typically folly, but it's possible to like the Cubs here. Chicago is averaging 6.3 runs per game on the road this year, and it's hot, scoring 5.9 in the last week compared to the 3.3 average of the Astros, who will be without George Springer and Jose Altuve. Houston starter Gerrit Cole is typically great, but he was shelled for six runs against the White Sox last time out. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels has dominated Houston bats, holding Monday's lineup to 16-of-98 lifetime hitting (.163). The value is on the Cubbies.

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    PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 5/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
    YESTERDAY 8:17 PM
    The Pirates are calling up a pitcher for a likely spot start, but that pitcher is Mitch Keller, the No. 1 prospect in the organization. Reds starter Sonny Gray is coming off his best start but he hasn't been effective in five home starts, and the Pirates' offense has more-reliable weapons than the Reds'. The price is right for a Pittsburgh road flyer.

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    David Kelly


    BOSTON -149


    ST. LOUIS @ BOSTON | 5/27 | 8:00 PM EDT
    10:02 AM
    Tonight, the quest for the Stanley Cup begins in Boston, but we need to get one thing straight right off the bat: this is not a series of goaltenders; this is a series of defense. This playoff season, Boston goalie Tuukka Rask couldn’t have had anything go easier for him because of the stellar play of the Bruins defense. St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington is the reason the Blues are here, but tonight he gets thrown to the wolves in Beantown. If Boston’s defense continues to play like it has been playing, someone might have to wake up Rask after the game to tell him it’s over. Boston wins tonight, and I look for the Bruins to take this series in five.

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    Larry Hartstein


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    KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/27 | 2:10 PM EDT
    12:08 AM
    The Royals are 7-17 on the road and send Homer Bailey to the mound Monday at the White Sox. Bailey could lose his rotation spot with another shaky performance. While Chicago's Ivan Nova also has terrible numbers, he's started to put things together. The White Sox have won four of his last five starts. Back the hosts.

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    Michael Rusk


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    TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 5/27 | 9:10 PM EDT
    9:49 AM
    Despite being 23-32 overall this season, the Mariners hold their weight as the favorite. They are starting veteran Tommy Milone, who allowed just two runs and three hits in 5.0 innings against the Rangers on May 21. On Sunday, Texas blew a four-run lead in the seventh inning against the Angels. The Mariners will claw their way to a win Monday night.

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    KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/27 | 2:10 PM EDT
    9:35 AM
    After getting swept on the road by the powerful Twins, the White Sox are back at home and will get back on track against the underwhelming Royals. Helping Chicago's cause is that Royals pitcher Homer Bailey is coming off back-to-back miserable performances (10 earned runs in his last two starts while only lasting 6.0 innings total) and just hasn’t been himself this season. Look for the Royals to drop to 7-18 on the road in a very overpriced line for them.

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    UNDER 9 PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 5/27 | 1:10 PM EDT



    9:28 AM
    In these teams' last nine games combined, the Over is 9-0. I have the total at eight here. In all but one of Luis Castillo’s starts this season the total has never been set at nine. On Monday, we have two quality young pitchers who both have a successful track record against the opposition. A lights-out Castillo, who has improved immensely, is ready to take over this matchup. Both of these lineups are mediocre at best, ranking 21st (Red) and 25th (Pirates) in runs per game. The Under should hit with ease in a 5-2 type Reds victory.

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    Consensus (17-12 L7 days)

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    White Sox/Royals OVER 9.5
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