[h=1]Betting guide for the 2019 Belmont Stakes[/h]
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There was a glimmer of hope that Country House and Maximum Security could have a rematch in the Belmont Stakes and give fans a shot at a much sought-after "grudge match." Those hopes were dashed, as the headliners in the final leg of the Triple Crown are Preakness winner War of Will and Derby third-place finisher Tacitus.
Surprisingly, Tacitus was installed as the slight 9-5 morning-line favorite despite War of Will emerging as one of the top 3-year-olds. The odds drop off quickly from there as Master Fencer is the 8-1 third choice after his late-closing, seventh-place finish in the Derby.
Let's go through my thoughts on every horse in the field, along with my suggested best bets for the race.
Note: Horses in order of post position, with trainer, jockey and morning-line odds.
[h=2]Lane Gold's guide to the field[/h][h=3]1. Joevia (Gregory Sacco/Jose Lezcano, 30-1)[/h]The speed of the Belmont drew the perfect position, as he should have clear sailing to go right to the front. But this race is not nearly easy as the Long Branch, which he recently won at Monmouth Park. The last -- and only -- time he ran against this caliber of horses was the Wood Memorial in April, when he set the early pace but tired and was eventually disqualified to last place for an incident at the start of the race. It would take a herculean effort for him to lead all the way in the Belmont, and I will not use him here.
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[h=3]2. Everfast (Dale Romans/Luis Saez, 12-1)[/h]He is one of a few horses who will be coming from far behind on Saturday. He was dismissed going into the Preakness at 29-1 and made an amazing rally from 11th to finish just 1.5 lengths back of War of Will. That was a lifetime best effort, and it would hard to see a horse with a 1-for-11 record putting forth a similar effort, especially at a shorter price this time. Pass for me.
[h=3]3. Master Fencer (Koichi Tsunoda/Julien Leparoux, 8-1)[/h]Another come-from-behind entrant who was overlooked in the Derby since Japanese horses typically do not run well in the United States. Plus, while in Japan, he had never won a major race, so he seemed outclassed in the Derby. But despite a rough trip, he made up 19 lengths and finished a close seventh. He can't afford to be that far back in the Belmont and might be overbet because of his Derby finish.
[h=3]4. Tax (Danny Gargan/Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1)[/h]He was one my value horses in the Derby but disappointed greatly by finishing 14th. Now he's back home in New York and well-rested. His running style should fit well, as he should be sitting close behind Joevia early on. If he is able to get the 1.5 miles Belmont distance, he could be dangerous at a generous price.
[h=3]5. Bourbon War (Mark Hennig/Mike Smith, 12-1)[/h]This colt entered the Preakness with high expectations -- and was one of my value selections -- but threw in quite the clunker. Now he gets jockey Mike Smith, but it is hard to know which horse we will see on Saturday. If he is single digits on the odds board, he would be hard to like because he hasn't won a race since January. He has the ability to hit the board, though.
[h=3]6. Spinoff (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano, 15-1)[/h]One of two Todd Pletcher entrants who also threw in a clunker in the Derby after having a good spring. Jockey Javier Castellano gets aboard for the first time, and that should help, as he will need to time his move to the front correctly. He should be sitting just a few lengths behind early on and has been training well at Belmont in preparation. The price is appealing.
[h=3]7. Sir Winston (Mark Casse/Joel Rosario, 12-1)[/h]He is another horse who is going to be making his run from the back half of the field. I don't like the fact that he has not won a race since running in Canada last year and finally "woke up" only in his last race in May.
[h=3]8. Intrepid Heart (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez, 10-1)[/h]He was expected to win the Peter Pan last month as the 6-5 favorite, but, after a small stumble at the gate, he never got rolling and finished a flat third. Even though he has run only three times, he's worth a hard look after reeling off two wins to start his career.
[h=3]9. War of Will (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione, 2-1)[/h]To see the Preakness winner not the morning-line favorite, especially with no Country House or Maximum Security in the race, is quite the surprise. His record in 2019 has been very impressive, with the only hiccups coming in the trouble-filled Kentucky Derby and when he injured himself in the Louisiana Derby. Outside of those races, he hasn't lost in 2019. As long as he has not been tired out by the two earlier Triple Crown races, War of Will is the one to beat.
[h=3]10. Tacitus (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz, 9-5)[/h]The gray colt was one of the hot horses coming into the Derby and validated that with a DQ-assisted third-place finish. He has shown the ability to close from far back, but, despite Belmont being such a long race, historically it is not beneficial. Tacitus is definitely a top-flight contender, but short odds on a horse closing from way behind with limited up-front speed is not my first choice.
[h=3][/h][h=2]Gold's suggested plays[/h]For exactas, we will use War of Will and Intrepid Heart over Spinoff and Tacitus. For the trifecta and superfectas, let's add Bourbon War and Master Fencer.
[h=3]Value play[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The value will be to try to knock off the two favorites. I am going with Intrepid Heart, Spinoff and Bourbon War as the top value horses.
Both Intrepid Heart and Spinoff should benefit from the lack of early speed and sit close to the front. Both should have decent prices between 10-1 and 20-1, and you get the home trainer and jockeys.
I will give Bourbon War another shot after his flop in the Preakness. The blinkers are coming off, and Mike Smith gets the mount, which is always a plus in a Triple Crown race.
Play the two Pletcher horses on top of the two favorites in exactas and add Bourbon War, Master Fencer and Tax underneath.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
There was a glimmer of hope that Country House and Maximum Security could have a rematch in the Belmont Stakes and give fans a shot at a much sought-after "grudge match." Those hopes were dashed, as the headliners in the final leg of the Triple Crown are Preakness winner War of Will and Derby third-place finisher Tacitus.
Surprisingly, Tacitus was installed as the slight 9-5 morning-line favorite despite War of Will emerging as one of the top 3-year-olds. The odds drop off quickly from there as Master Fencer is the 8-1 third choice after his late-closing, seventh-place finish in the Derby.
Let's go through my thoughts on every horse in the field, along with my suggested best bets for the race.
Note: Horses in order of post position, with trainer, jockey and morning-line odds.
[h=2]Lane Gold's guide to the field[/h][h=3]1. Joevia (Gregory Sacco/Jose Lezcano, 30-1)[/h]The speed of the Belmont drew the perfect position, as he should have clear sailing to go right to the front. But this race is not nearly easy as the Long Branch, which he recently won at Monmouth Park. The last -- and only -- time he ran against this caliber of horses was the Wood Memorial in April, when he set the early pace but tired and was eventually disqualified to last place for an incident at the start of the race. It would take a herculean effort for him to lead all the way in the Belmont, and I will not use him here.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=3]2. Everfast (Dale Romans/Luis Saez, 12-1)[/h]He is one of a few horses who will be coming from far behind on Saturday. He was dismissed going into the Preakness at 29-1 and made an amazing rally from 11th to finish just 1.5 lengths back of War of Will. That was a lifetime best effort, and it would hard to see a horse with a 1-for-11 record putting forth a similar effort, especially at a shorter price this time. Pass for me.
[h=3]3. Master Fencer (Koichi Tsunoda/Julien Leparoux, 8-1)[/h]Another come-from-behind entrant who was overlooked in the Derby since Japanese horses typically do not run well in the United States. Plus, while in Japan, he had never won a major race, so he seemed outclassed in the Derby. But despite a rough trip, he made up 19 lengths and finished a close seventh. He can't afford to be that far back in the Belmont and might be overbet because of his Derby finish.
[h=3]4. Tax (Danny Gargan/Irad Ortiz Jr., 15-1)[/h]He was one my value horses in the Derby but disappointed greatly by finishing 14th. Now he's back home in New York and well-rested. His running style should fit well, as he should be sitting close behind Joevia early on. If he is able to get the 1.5 miles Belmont distance, he could be dangerous at a generous price.
[h=3]5. Bourbon War (Mark Hennig/Mike Smith, 12-1)[/h]This colt entered the Preakness with high expectations -- and was one of my value selections -- but threw in quite the clunker. Now he gets jockey Mike Smith, but it is hard to know which horse we will see on Saturday. If he is single digits on the odds board, he would be hard to like because he hasn't won a race since January. He has the ability to hit the board, though.
[h=3]6. Spinoff (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano, 15-1)[/h]One of two Todd Pletcher entrants who also threw in a clunker in the Derby after having a good spring. Jockey Javier Castellano gets aboard for the first time, and that should help, as he will need to time his move to the front correctly. He should be sitting just a few lengths behind early on and has been training well at Belmont in preparation. The price is appealing.
[h=3]7. Sir Winston (Mark Casse/Joel Rosario, 12-1)[/h]He is another horse who is going to be making his run from the back half of the field. I don't like the fact that he has not won a race since running in Canada last year and finally "woke up" only in his last race in May.
[h=3]8. Intrepid Heart (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez, 10-1)[/h]He was expected to win the Peter Pan last month as the 6-5 favorite, but, after a small stumble at the gate, he never got rolling and finished a flat third. Even though he has run only three times, he's worth a hard look after reeling off two wins to start his career.
[h=3]9. War of Will (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione, 2-1)[/h]To see the Preakness winner not the morning-line favorite, especially with no Country House or Maximum Security in the race, is quite the surprise. His record in 2019 has been very impressive, with the only hiccups coming in the trouble-filled Kentucky Derby and when he injured himself in the Louisiana Derby. Outside of those races, he hasn't lost in 2019. As long as he has not been tired out by the two earlier Triple Crown races, War of Will is the one to beat.
[h=3]10. Tacitus (Bill Mott/Jose Ortiz, 9-5)[/h]The gray colt was one of the hot horses coming into the Derby and validated that with a DQ-assisted third-place finish. He has shown the ability to close from far back, but, despite Belmont being such a long race, historically it is not beneficial. Tacitus is definitely a top-flight contender, but short odds on a horse closing from way behind with limited up-front speed is not my first choice.
[h=3][/h][h=2]Gold's suggested plays[/h]For exactas, we will use War of Will and Intrepid Heart over Spinoff and Tacitus. For the trifecta and superfectas, let's add Bourbon War and Master Fencer.
- Exacta box 8-9
- Exacta 8-9/6-10
- Trifecta 8-9/6-10/3-5-6-10
- Superfecta 8-9/6-10/3-5-6-10/ALL
[h=3]Value play[/h]<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>The value will be to try to knock off the two favorites. I am going with Intrepid Heart, Spinoff and Bourbon War as the top value horses.
Both Intrepid Heart and Spinoff should benefit from the lack of early speed and sit close to the front. Both should have decent prices between 10-1 and 20-1, and you get the home trainer and jockeys.
I will give Bourbon War another shot after his flop in the Preakness. The blinkers are coming off, and Mike Smith gets the mount, which is always a plus in a Triple Crown race.
Play the two Pletcher horses on top of the two favorites in exactas and add Bourbon War, Master Fencer and Tax underneath.
- Exacts 6-8/4-5-9-10
- Trifecta 6-8/4-5-9-10/3-4-5-6-9-10
- Superfecta 6-8/4-5-9-10/3-4-5-6-9-10/3-4-5-6-9-10
