Old Pitchers/High Pitch Counts

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

One angle I like to play is to fade an older pitcher that threw a bunch of pitches in his previous start.
Like, pitcher 30+ years old, threw 110+ pitches in his previous start.
Haven't tracked it but gut feel is that it's been very successful.
Anyone know where I can get this info in a consolidated format? Right now I have to dig.

Thanks

Sorry for cluttering up your poly forum with sports gambling talk.

Hamilbet · Jun 10, 2019

HarryCaray said:
Sorry for cluttering up your poly forum with sports gambling talk.

Haha,

But as insane as the MLB is with stats, I think it will be tough to find this short of digging on your own. My guess is the easiest way to do it is sort all active pitchers by age, keep a list of 30+ pitchers and just take note when 1 goes over 110 pitches. It should be REALLY easy to do. pitchers rarely go over 100 let alone 110 anymore.

Hamilbet · Jun 10, 2019

Actually, now that I think about it, depending on your data source it might be a shorter list of pitchers throwing over 100 pitches and then just looking for the old timers.

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

Hamilbet said:
Actually, now that I think about it, depending on your data source it might be a shorter list of pitchers throwing over 100 pitches and then just looking for the old timers.

Any clue where I can find pitch counts by day pretty easily?
Right now I'm having to go into the game logs for each starting pitcher.

Michelangelo · Jun 10, 2019

Check Baseball Reference,com. Harry.

They have it broken down by all 125 pitch performances each year.

There were 272 occurrences in 1998. Only 6 in 2015.

My guess is you're gonna search through a lot of pitcher logs and find not that many samples of 110+. It's a changed game.

Michelangelo · Jun 10, 2019

This might help some in narrowing down your search.

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/player-stat/pitches-per-game

Michelangelo · Jun 10, 2019

You might be able to get it on MLB.com. They have a sort by pitch count but I can't figure it out.

Good luck.

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

Michelangelo said:
Check Baseball Reference,com. Harry.

They have it broken down by all 125 pitch performances each year.

There were 272 occurrences in 1998. Only 6 in 2015.

My guess is you're gonna search through a lot of pitcher logs and find not that many samples of 110+. It's a changed game.

Agreed and point taken. Easy access to the data would allow me to look at changing the parameters to 100 or even 90 pitches for more opportunities.

Michelangelo · Jun 10, 2019

I didn't read it all but I think this article from bleacherreport. com addresses this subject.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1616536-debunking-the-100-pitch-wall-for-mlb-pitchers

Knightrofins · Jun 10, 2019

HarryCaray said:
One angle I like to play is to fade an older pitcher that threw a bunch of pitches in his previous start.
Like, pitcher 30+ years old, threw 110+ pitches in his previous start.
Haven't tracked it but gut feel is that it's been very successful.
Anyone know where I can get this info in a consolidated format? Right now I have to dig.

Thanks

Sorry for cluttering up your poly forum with sports gambling talk.

Depends if the pitcher is white, black, or latino

Hamilbet · Jun 10, 2019

If you find a good way to access the info, keep us posted! Ill bet (and I will) your hunch is correct.

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

Hamilbet said:
If you find a good way to access the info, keep us posted! Ill bet (and I will) your hunch is correct.

Will do. I know Wainwright qualified last night and that made the Cubs a huge play for me. Didn't post it cause I figured it would get attributed to homerism anyway, but it is a solid angle.

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

Michelangelo said:
I didn't read it all but I think this article from bleacherreport. com addresses this subject.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1616536-debunking-the-100-pitch-wall-for-mlb-pitchers

That only talks about performance over 100 pitches in that start itself. I'm looking for results in the following start.

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

I can look at all SP for tonight, and pull the last 7 days pitch count from mlb
Easier than doing a "last start" kinda thing and still gets to the same point, maybe better

Michelangelo · Jun 10, 2019

HarryCaray said:
That only talks about performance over 100 pitches in that start itself. I'm looking for results in the following start.

Yes but that's your starting point.

I've done all these studies myself, HC. There's no easy way. It's a long project looking at pitcher logs.

Unless you can access databases and write code or learn code, SDQL. I can't.

Good luck, man.

CHOPTALK · Jun 10, 2019

I would like to see numbers on this .

I can make the case that older pitchers can handle deep pitch counts better then younger pitchers because they have been trained to go longer coming up.

This short pitch count thing is new and the guys that are over 30 was not restricted coming up like the younger guys now .

But I would like to see the numbers regardless

CHOPTALK · Jun 10, 2019

Only type of trend system thing kind of like this that has made me money year after year is find pitchers that pitch great in day or pitchers who pitch bad in day games .

Some players play better/worse in day games then they do in night games and it don’t seem to be reflected in the lines

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

Michelangelo said:
Yes but that's your starting point.

I've done all these studies myself, HC. There's no easy way. It's a long project looking at pitcher logs.

Unless you can access databases and write code or learn code, SDQL. I can't.

Good luck, man.

That is how I make my living.

Thanks

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

CHOPTALK said:
I would like to see numbers on this .

I can make the case that older pitchers can handle deep pitch counts better then younger pitchers because they have been trained to go longer coming up.

This short pitch count thing is new and the guys that are over 30 was not restricted coming up like the younger guys now .

But I would like to see the numbers regardless

Yeah would like to look at all starting pitchers in the start after a high pitch count and maybe tweak/split it from there. Over 500 vs under 500 teams, pre vs post all star break, team's bullpen ERA, etc. And look at it in relation to the total too.

I have a lot of big ideas and ambition but rarely the time to pursue it further than a musing.

I'll just end up betting on the cubs instead.

HarryCaray · Jun 10, 2019

I'm just going to look at yesterday each day and keep a running list here of all pitchers who go over 110, with a play against them in their next start.
If it seems to have some legs after a couple weeks maybe I'll do more with it.

Old Pitchers/High Pitch Counts

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