Tuesday Service Play Thread 6/11/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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Ben Burns

2* Houston -130

2* Philadelphia -139

2* Kansas City -125
 

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+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Cleveland Indians -104 (L Castillo | T Bauer) (Tuesday, June 11th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 970 DET/KC un9 -105 (S Turnbull | J Junis) (Tuesday, June 11th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Seattle Mariners +170 (M Leake | M Perez) (Tuesday, June 11th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 972 NYM/NYY un5 -109 (1st 5 Innings) (Z Wheeler | J Paxton) (Tuesday, June 11th)
 

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DR. CHUCK

Game: (957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -129

View Analysis

Quintana v. Lambert
This is a hurry and get the play type line as it is only degrading by the second. I was already on this as early as the Make it Rain episode I was on yesterday afternoon but did not honestly know how tonight's game would play out. Everything about this screams Cubbies...and they've also gone from slight dog to -130 being the bargain price!


 

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Consensus (5-5 L2 days)

MLB
8u Tigers ML (+130)
6u Mariners RL (-120)
5u Braves ML (-145)
 

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CleInsidersports (8-6 L5 days)

MLB
Brewers ML (+110)
Mets/Yankees OVER 9 (GM 1, 1pm)

NHL (tomorrow)
Blues/Bruins UNDER 5.5

**NHL Game 7, after game 6 went over, the UNDER is 9-3-1. When the total opens at 5, the UNDER is 5-1-2
 

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DR. CHUCK

Game: (951) Arizona Diamondbacks at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +122

View Analysis

Duplantier v. Arrieta
How fun is it to fade Jake Arrieta at this point...he sure is hard to back...but is he harder to back than the Philly offense? Hmmm....
Arrieta is off 2 straight awful starts recording an FIP of over 10!!! in both and only making it to the 5th inning in each start allowing 5 or more runs. Now he faces the Dbacks at home and they rank near the top in all categories on offense hitting against righties on the road. Since the end of May, they have 218 PAs with .236 ISO, 32 wRC, 5.6 wRAA, .350 wOBA, 115 wRC+. Arrieta is going to struggle mightily against this lineup, so it comes down to Duplantier holding his own against this lineup.
Philly has struggled without McCutchen in the lineup as well and to be laying this much with this starter against this offense is just too good to pass up!


Game: (973) Cincinnati Reds at (974) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.0 (+102)

View Analysis

Castillo v. Bauer
Too easy....screams 3-2 game all the way!


Game: (981) New York Mets at (982) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.0 (+100)

View Analysis

Wheeler v. Tanaka
Game 1 of a doubleheader for the subway series start of 2019. Tanaka is a holdover from last night while Wheeler is a sub for Vargas, who will pitch the second half tonight now. Wind in this bandbox of a Yankee Stadium is blowing HARD out to the short porch in left and hard to imagine the balls don't fly early and often.
Tanaka definitely has a propensity to allow too many home runs...and Wheeler is on the upswing in that realm as well...both near 15% HR/FB rate and both lineups have the ability to take many pitchers deep. If both teams don't both hit multiple home runs I would certainly be surprised! If weg get hit with a bunch of solo home runs I hope we can still get the squeak over here...but The discount total of 9 here even in an early start of a game and an unplanned off day for hitters should be eased by the fly ball to right carrying over the fence all afternoon.


 

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[FONT=&quot]7 wins in a row now! (8 if not for the CLE SP scratch). Let's keep it rolling with a big underdog price...

[June 11] Official Play for TOMORROW:
SEA +170 (we recommend playing the overnight lines because the market can move fast on sharp plays)

embeddable_91c724a8-3ed1-47c3-bad5-68aa7fca3ad8.JPG


Mariners (+170) at Minnesota -- Basewinner Line = Minnesota -117
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  • Leake is BAR is serviceable at 100 but he has a good bbk at .29.
  • Marty P has been worse than average L2 yrs. in BAR (114,113) and in bbk (.50 ’18, .44 ’19).
  • Mariners offense #7 in bbk L14 days at .41 – Twins offense is #23 at .30.
[FONT=&quot]Bb/k is a simple yet powerful metric that shows great handicapping promise based on a Basewinner Data Study:https://www.cleardatasports.com/basewinner-data-studies/

Cheers,
BaseWinner
[/FONT]
 

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Vince Akins (5-3 L2 days)

MLB TREND PLAYS
Yankees ML (-150) GM1
Indians ML (-125)
Tigers/Royals UNDER (8.5)
Pirates ML (+135)
 

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Bezobets

C* Dbacks Ov9 -104
C* NYY/NYM G2 1H Un5 -108
C* Brewers ML +110

MLB: 67-60 / +18.024u / 5.4% ROI
 

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Andre Gomes

3*TOM
Oakland / Tampa Bay over 9

2* Miami +132

2* San Diego -151
 

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Miller locks

7:05 pm est mlb
toronto blue jays vs. Baltimore orioles

pick: Baltimore orioles (+105)

risk: 11 units

7:05 pm est mlb
arizona diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia phillies

pick: Arizona diamondbacks (+125)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Boston red sox

pick: Texas rangers (+155)

risk: 11 units

8:10 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Houston astros

pick: Houston astros (-119)

risk: 11 units
 

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