OK - golf minds needed

HarryCaray

EV Whore

Joined

Apr 18, 2006

Messages

19,916

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #1

I hold the following two tickets

Koepka to win, 1 unit to win 8
Rose to win, 1 unit to win 25
3 units of other dead futures (DJ, Xander, Hideki)

Good spot, pulling for Rose but being hedged with Koepka.
Question is would you add anything on Woodland at this point.
This out has him +125

Thinking maybe 4 units to win 5.
Woodland or Koepka wins is a break even for the tourney
Rose wins is a +17
Anyone else wins is a -9

But my tendency is usually to let it ride in this spot.
Interested in opinions, thanks

 

StevieRay

Active member

Joined

Nov 23, 2011

Messages

95,232

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #2

Don’t think Woodland holds up tomorrow

 

LargeMarge

Banned

Joined

Mar 6, 2019

Messages

2,045

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #3

I’d put a couple on Woodland, not 5, and pray for Rose

 

HarryCaray

EV Whore

Joined

Apr 18, 2006

Messages

19,916

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #4

LargeMarge said:

I’d put a couple on Woodland, not 5, and pray for Rose

Click to expand...

Yeah I think my thinking is flawed by trying to protect a break-even for the tourney.
I should just treat the 3 units as a sunk cost.
Disregarding those, I think it makes more sense to put 2 or so on woodland.
I would prefer to hedge with a Rose NOT to win -120 or whatever, but don't see it.

 

LargeMarge

Banned

Joined

Mar 6, 2019

Messages

2,045

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #5

I know shit about golf. But just skimming the current leaderboard, that’s what I’d do. Always thought putting money on golf was like playing the lottery

 

trytrytry

Member

Handicapper

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

22,529

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #6

7 R.McIlroy wins US Open +920
8 Field wins US Open -1295
5 B.Koepka wins US Open +510
6 Field wins US Open -670
1 J.Rose wins US Open +170
2 Field wins US Open -195
3 G.Woodland wins US Open +190
4 Field wins US Open -220

 

HarryCaray

EV Whore

Joined

Apr 18, 2006

Messages

19,916

Tokens

• Jun 15, 2019

• #7

trytrytry said:

7 R.McIlroy wins US Open +920
8 Field wins US Open -1295
5 B.Koepka wins US Open +510
6 Field wins US Open -670
1 J.Rose wins US Open +170
2 Field wins US Open -195
3 G.Woodland wins US Open +190
4 Field wins US Open -220

Click to expand...

Only playing at one out right now.
I acknowledge that the odds on futures there are shit.

 

busterhyman

New member

Joined

Apr 7, 2016

Messages

6,600

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #8

think rose is going 2 win it...so let it play out

 

REDEYE

Nirvana Shill

Joined

Oct 20, 2001

Messages

28,491

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #9

almost in the same exact position... added this on Dimes last night

nding

6/16/19 10:21am Majors Golf 15 G.Woodland / B.Koepka wins US Open +102* <small style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins US Open

<tbody style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">
</tbody>

Pending

6/16/19 5:19pm Majors Golf 5 B.Koepka wins US Open +510* <small style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins US Open

<tbody style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">
</tbody>

Couldn't pass up putting more on Koepka … think he pulls it off

I still have Rory , Rahm , and Schaufllee on board too...

 

CHOPTALK

Member

Handicapper

Joined

Oct 31, 2004

Messages

44,297

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #10

Koepka at 5/1 is tremendous value

 

HarryCaray

EV Whore

Joined

Apr 18, 2006

Messages

19,916

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #11

CHOPTALK said:

Koepka at 5/1 is tremendous value

Click to expand...

Disagree with that. Sure he can win, but if Rose OR Woodland shoots in the 60s he would have to go very low.

 

Ricboff

Member

Joined

Oct 12, 2008

Messages

10,180

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #12

taking Woodland +125? not really a true hedge and you could lose even more if Rory or Oosthuizen do something special. BOTH are capable. Both are former major winners. Oosthuizen has been a near robot off the tee. He was 14 for 14 fairways hit yesterday,... this at a US Open venue? sick. He also has made the most birdies thru Saturday. He shot 66 on Thursday and he's capable of doing that today

Koepka tee to green was crazy good yesterday. Think he missed one shot, a pulled 9 iron on 16 i think it was. The gutsy 2nd shot at 18 tells us all we need to know about this guy. If he was putting like he did at Bethpage he'd be leading by 3 or 4 shots.

Rose's putting has been off the charts this week. Putting ususlly wins, esp on Sunday. Got to love his chances, esp if he gets the tee shots sorted

Woodland- he's been here before (last yr's PGA led by 1 into Sunday), so he's not in uncharted waters. Can he control the nerves, is he ready?


will be interesting to see today's pin placements. Had some nasty ones yesterday, USGA clearly not wanting a Moving Day , lol

gl


Sunday at Pebble !!!!!!!!!!!

 

HarryCaray

EV Whore

Joined

Apr 18, 2006

Messages

19,916

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #13

Ended up just letting it ride. Going to be hating on woodland all day, which kinda sucks cause I do like him. Hopefully today is not his day.

 

5teamparlay

Member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

34,789

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #14

Good Move IMO




Maybe wait in an ingame live move

let Woodland fall early

 

Hamilbet

I like money

Handicapper

Joined

Dec 13, 2006

Messages

5,381

Tokens

• Jun 16, 2019

• #15

I would not hedge. There is too much to go wrong in golf And it happens fast and often.

 

5teamparlay

Member

Joined

Sep 21, 2004

Messages

34,789

Tokens

• Jul 16, 2019

• #16

Who do you like in The Open??