Things are Heating Up in the Middle East

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

[FONT=&quot] U.S. Sending 1,000 More Troops to Middle East amid Tensions with Iran[/FONT][FONT=&quot] (U.S. Defense Department)
Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan on Monday authorized 1,000 additional troops for defensive purposes to address air, naval, and ground-based threats in the Middle East.
"The recent Iranian attacks validate the reliable, credible intelligence we have received on hostile behavior by Iranian forces and their proxy groups that threaten United States personnel and interests across the region," he said [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

[FONT=&quot] Iran Is Playing with Fire[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Prof. Eyal Zisser (Israel Hayom)
Washington is slowly strangling the Iranian economy, and the ayatollahs are finding it difficult to find a way out of the noose they feel tightening around their necks.
The Iranian economy has collapsed faster than officials in Tehran thought it would, and the budget hardships forced Iran to slash the generous aid it provided to its various satellites including Hizbullah and Syrian President Bashar Assad.
With the recent attacks against oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, the Iranians have decided to turn up the flames. But Iran is a paper tiger.
While it is capable of making its neighbors' lives miserable and spreading terrorism throughout the region, when it is confronted directly and red lines are drawn - and when other nations are poised to strike - Iran falls back.
That is what happened in Syria, where Israel managed to check Iranian attempts to entrench itself in a position to face off against Israel. [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

[FONT=&quot]White House: Iran "Nuclear Blackmail" Must Be Met with International Pressure[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]"Iran's enrichment plans are only possible because the horrible nuclear deal left their capabilities intact," U.S. National Security Council spokesman Garrett Marquis said Monday. "President Trump has made it clear that he will never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. The regime's nuclear blackmail must be met with increased international pressure." (Reuters) [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

All stories are capsules. To read full stories click inside the red lettering.

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

[FONT=&quot]U.S. Releases New Images of Oil Tanker Attack[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Amanda Macias[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]The Pentagon released declassified images Monday showing the sustained damage from one of the oil tankers attacked last week and maintained that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy was responsible. An IRGC patrol boat "was observed and recorded by a U.S. Navy MH-60 helicopter removing the unexploded limpet mine from [the Japanese tanker] Kokuka Courageous," the Pentagon said in a statement Monday. "Iran is responsible for the attack based on video evidence and the resources and proficiency needed to quickly remove the unexploded limpet mine." (CNBC) [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

This one sort of contradicts another opinion above....

[FONT=&quot]Iran's Elite Defense Force Finds New Funding Sources[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Benoit Faucon and Sune Engel Rasmussen[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is maintaining support for armed groups in the Middle East and finding new sources of funding, defying U.S. efforts to curb its activities abroad. New sources of revenue include recently-signed infrastructure contracts in Syria and Iraq as well as expanded smuggling networks.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Guard continues to send bags of cash by plane to the group's Lebanese proxy Hizbullah in Syria, said Hanin Ghaddar, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The wages of Iraqi militias hostile to the U.S. - some trained by the Quds Force - are funded by the Iraqi government, so they aren't affected. Senior Guard commander Gholam Ali Rashid told parliament last month that when Iran fought Iraq in the 1980s, it was on its own. "Now it has allies all over the region," he said. (Wall Street Journal)[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

This in a nutshell tells you which side of I/P conflict wants peace....

[FONT=&quot] Fatah Expels Mayor after Jews Attend Son's Wedding[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Khaled Abu Toameh
The ruling Palestinian Fatah faction has decided to expel Radi Nasser, the mayor of Deir Qaddis, a town 16 km. west of Ramallah in the West Bank, and has called on the Palestinian Authority to launch an investigation against Palestinians who were seen celebrating together with Jews during the wedding of the mayor's son. Four Jews were brought to the wedding by Palestinians who work with them in a car repair garage. Pictures from the wedding that appeared on social media showed the Jews being carried on the shoulders of Palestinian men.
The mayor and his son were accused of treason on Palestinian social media, while the names of the Palestinians who brought the Jews to the wedding were delivered to the Palestinian security forces so they could face legal measures. (Jerusalem Post)

Jewish Israelis Dancing with Palestinians at a Wedding Is a Cause for Celebration [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

Does Trump really believe he can solve I/P conflict by throwing money at the Palestinians? It's a longshot!

[FONT=&quot]Bahrain Workshop on Palestinian Economy Is the Opportunity of a Generation[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Jason D. Greenblatt
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]This is exciting - an opportunity of a generation. The June 25 and 26 workshop in Bahrain for the benefit of Palestinians is a pivotal opportunity to convene government, civil society, and business leaders to share ideas, discuss strategies, and galvanize support for potential economic investments and initiatives that could be made possible by a peace agreement. The results of those discussions could lead to significant investment in the talented Palestinian and regional population.
Saeb Erekat, the lead Palestinian negotiator, claims we are trying to buy the Palestinians. We know that won't work. We fully recognize that our economic plan cannot be successful without a political agreement, just as a political agreement would have little chance without an effective economic plan.
Saeb also is making claims that the Arab countries who are attending the workshop have no right to negotiate for the Palestinians. On that point, we agree. No one is suggesting that anyone other than the Palestinians have such a right. But those attending sincerely want to help the Palestinians. Those countries who are participating should be praised and thanked by Saeb and the Palestinian Authority.
It is disheartening to see the supposed leaders of the Palestinians attack Palestinian entrepreneurs and Palestinian supporters in general for supporting a better future for their people. Supporters of this workshop want only the best for the Palestinians and the region. For masked, armed gunmen to threaten Palestinians against support of a better future, as seen on official Fatah social media sites and in refugee camps, is despicable. The writer is an assistant to the U.S. president and special representative for international negotiations. [/FONT][FONT=&quot](CNN)[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 18, 2019

[FONT=&quot] Ayatollah Khamenei Warns of Using "Military Tools" to Beat the U.S.[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Farzin Nadimi (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The increasing momentum of the U.S. "maximum pressure" policy has prompted Iran to react more aggressively of late. In a May 29 speech, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that the "only way" to gain strategic leverage over America is to beat Washington at its own game of pressure - not through negotiations but rather through "our own tools of leverage," including "military tools." [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]He promised to use more such tools if the regime's recent threat to resume certain nuclear activities did not yield the desired result of easing sanctions and helping Iran's economy. Given such rhetoric, it is difficult to view the latest attacks as anything but the regime doing just what Khamenei said it would. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous was sailing from the Saudi port of Jubail to Singapore with a cargo of methanol when it was hit by a sabotage attack. The Kokuka Courageous is a chemical tanker clearly marked to carry products that pose severe environmental and safety hazards. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]A premeditated attack against such a vessel shows complete disregard for the significant environmental and human damage that spilling such products could cause. [/FONT]

Dave007inVegas · Jun 18, 2019

The sooner Iran is eliminated the better off the world will be.
The problem is the world doesn't seem care.

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]F-35s Take Part in Massive Drill Simulating War on Multiple Fronts[/FONT][FONT=&quot] (Times of Israel)
The Israeli Air Force is holding a large-scale multi-day exercise simulating combat action on multiple fronts, the army said Tuesday, with F-35 planes taking part for the first time.
The drill simulates simultaneous fighting in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.
It includes scenarios involving an enemy armed with advanced technology, such as the Russian S-300 and S-400 missile defense systems; a home front under massive missile attacks; and challenges such as damaged runways and disabled IAF communications centers.[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]U.S. Calls to Unite Against Iranian Threat to Freedom of Navigation[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Secretary of State Michael Pompeo told CBS Face the Nation on Friday: "We don't want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. The previous administration put them on a pathway that virtually guaranteed that they could get there, so we withdrew from the ridiculous JCPOA and are moving ourselves towards a set of policies which will convince Iran to behave simply like a normal nation."[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot] Q: CENTCOM released this video - purporting to show an IRGC Revolutionary Guard patrol boat pulling up alongside these vessels and removing a mine from the hull of the ship. How certain are you that this is the IRGC?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Pompeo: "We don't just purport. That's what that video is. This was taken from an American camera, and this is the real data....I will concede there are countries that just wish this would go away, and they want to act in a way that is counterfactual. No one disputes that this is the Islamic Republic of Iran taking these actions to deny this international waterway and the freedom of navigation that is a fundamental right of every country to travel through that....The world needs to unite against this threat from the Islamic Republic of Iran."[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot] "I'll remind you too, China gets over 80% of its crude oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea, Japan - these nations are incredibly dependent on these resources. We're prepared to do our part. We always defend freedom of navigation. We are going to work to build out a set of countries that have a deep, vested interest in keeping that strait open to help us do that." (U.S. State Department) [/FONT]

Imagine the enabler Kerry doing this.....

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]Europeans May Be Nearing End of Diplomatic Road with Iran[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - John Irish[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Britain, France and Germany may be nearing the end of the diplomatic road with Iran after a series of attacks in the Gulf that the U.S. blames on Iran or its proxies, as well as Iran's threat on Monday to breach the 2015 deal's limit on its uranium hexafluoride stocks. "If they do, it's essentially game over for the EU," a senior EU diplomat said.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Diplomats stressed the E3 are weary of Iranian demands. "We need to bring them back from the brink, but let me be clear: Our margin of tolerance on the nuclear issue is zero," said a second senior European diplomat. (Reuters) [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]EU Ministers Urge Action over Turkey's Drilling Off Cyprus[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Menelaos Hadjicostis[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday expressed "grave concern over the ongoing illegal drilling" for gas by Turkey in waters where EU member Cyprus has exclusive economic rights. They called on the bloc's executive arm to submit possible sanctions, including cuts to financial aid that Turkey currently receives. The ministers "stress the immediate and serious consequences Turkey's illegal actions are having on the entire fabric of Turkish-EU relations." Turkey doesn't recognize Cyprus and says it is acting to protect its own rights and those of breakaway Turkish Cypriots. (AP-Washington Post)[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]Only a Global Alliance Will Deter Iran from Attacks at Sea[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Adm. (ret.) James Stavridis[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]During a long Navy career, I have sat on the bridge of U.S. warships watching Iranian gunboats warily too many times to count. Sometimes the Iranians are very professional, and follow the standard rules of the nautical road. At other times, they can be the most dangerous of mariners, swerving close at high speed and turning on their fire control radars.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]The Iranians seem to think Washington will back down in the face of these tanker attacks. But it is far too soon to default to a purely military solution. The U.S. still has cards to play. Most importantly, Washington needs to move to a world-versus-Iran scenario. There is no global support for attacks on unarmed merchant ships, especially environmentally sensitive supertankers. Attacks on the supply chain for oil and petrochemicals will antagonize everyone. Confronting Iran must be a team sport.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Finally, while the U.S. should work hard for a diplomatic solution, it needs to recognize that the Iranian mullahs are implacable and driven by religious beliefs. They are not inclined to compromise. That means being ready for unconventional attacks anywhere in the world that the extensive Iranian terror network (headlined by Hizbullah) can reach. The writer, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former supreme allied commander of NATO, is dean emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. (Bloomberg) [/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]Hamas Casts Its Lot with Iran[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Prof. Hillel Frisch[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]World Jerusalem Day, held this year on June 7, was created by Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979. Each year, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah address the Islamic world to champion the Palestinian cause and denigrate Israel, while Sunni Arab leaders, including in the PA, ignore World Jerusalem Day.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]This year, Sunni Hamas joined in to commemorate the event, a decision that reflects its weakness. Wooing Iran will also have a negative effect on Hamas' relations with Egypt, Gaza's gateway to the Arab world and beyond. Egyptian President Sisi is aware that in the 10th century, Persian ayatollahs employed subversion to establish a Shiite dynasty that ruled Egypt for 200 years, and that Iran is intent on trying to repeat that historical event.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]The writer is a professor of political and Middle East studies at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research associate at its BESA Center. (Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University)[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]Tehran's Threat of a Nuclear Breakout Shows Its Real Intentions[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Editorial (Wall Street Journal)[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Iran said Monday that by the end of June it will exceed the limits it had agreed to on its stockpile of enriched uranium. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Exceeding the cap would violate the 2015 nuclear deal and force European leaders to decide if they want to acquiesce to Iran or join the U.S. in an effort to pressure Tehran to renegotiate the failed nuclear deal. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]It turns out the U.S. has enough economic power that European companies are abiding by the new sanctions rather than risk losing access to the U.S. market. Iran is feeling the financial squeeze and is now acting up. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Critics are blaming the U.S. for "backing Iran into a corner," but Iran is the bad actor here. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Iran could have used the nuclear deal as an invitation to rejoin the world economy as a normal trading state. But it used the financial windfall to finance its missile program at home and spread terror abroad. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The best way to reduce the danger of a shooting war in the region is for Europe to join the U.S. in a united campaign to persuade Iran that its only path out of sanctions is to renegotiate the nuclear deal and cease its export of revolution.[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]Iran Faces Critical Problems in any Serious Military Conflict[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Anthony Cordesman[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Iran faces critical problems in any serious conflict with the U.S., the Arab Gulf states, and Israel. Iran is a major military power by regional standards in terms of sheer numbers of men and weapons. However, the bulk of its forces are poorly equipped with major weapons systems that date back to the 1970s.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Its air forces are a bit of a military museum. It is just beginning to modernize its surface-to-air defenses, and its long-range ballistic and cruise missile forces are just beginning to develop the levels of precision that can make them accurate enough to be lethal against high value targets. Its land forces are defensive and have limited ability to support long-range maneuver, while its major ships and submarines cannot survive a major clash with the U.S. Navy.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Iran is also highly vulnerable. It cannot launch major attacks on the petroleum exports of its Arab neighbors without ending its own. Its neighbors may have vulnerable civil and military targets, but its own military forces, critical economic facilities, electricity grid, water supply, oil refineries, industrial facilities, and key food distribution systems are highly vulnerable. Iran will find it far harder to ride out any serious conflict than its neighbors.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]The writer, a former policy adviser to the U.S. Defense and State Departments, holds the Arleigh Burke chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. (The Hill)

Can't envision a full-scale war in the next 10 years. Iran has too much to lose and too much 'success' with its terror umbrellas. The rest of the world is war-weary, including the US.
[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]Palestinian Engineers Poised for Riches from Israeli Tech Firm's Takeover[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Rami Ayyub and Tova Cohen (Reuters)
Palestinian engineers working for Israeli chip designer Mellanox Technologies are poised to share a $3.5 million payout when the company's takeover by U.S. chip supplier Nvidia Corp. is completed.
Mellanox offered stock options to more than 100 Palestinian engineers in the West Bank and Gaza when it hired them as contractors.
The Palestinian designers and coders will now be able to exercise those options after the takeover - worth an estimated $30-40,000 per employee.[/FONT]

ScottL · Jun 19, 2019

[FONT=&quot]The Pirates of Tehran[/FONT][FONT=&quot] - Bret Stephens (New York Times)[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]On April 14, 1988, the USS Samuel B. Roberts, a frigate, hit an Iranian naval mine while sailing in the Persian Gulf. The explosion injured 10 of her crew and nearly sank the ship. Four days later, the U.S. Navy destroyed half the Iranian fleet in a matter of hours. Iran did not molest the Navy or international shipping for many years thereafter. Now Iran's piratical regime is back yet again. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]While Iran categorically denied responsibility for Thursday's attacks on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, the evidence against Iran is compelling. The U.S. Central Command noted that "a U.S. aircraft observed an IRGC Hendijan-class patrol boat and multiple IRGC fast attack craft...in the vicinity of the M/T Altair," one of the damaged tankers. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Staging deniable attacks that fall just below the threshold of open warfare on the U.S. is an Iranian specialty. But it would require a large dose of self-deception to pretend that Iran isn't the likely culprit, or that its actions don't represent a major escalation. Firing on unarmed ships in international waters is a direct assault on the international order. To allow it to go unpunished isn't an option. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The U.S. should declare new rules of engagement to allow the Navy to engage and destroy Iranian ships or fast boats that harass or threaten any ship, military or commercial, operating in international waters. The world cannot tolerate freelance Somali pirates. Much less should it tolerate a pirate state seeking to hold the global economy hostage through multiplying acts of economic terrorism. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Nobody wants a war with Iran. But not wanting a war does not mean remaining supine in the face of its outrages. We sank Iran's navy before. Tehran should be put on notice that we are prepared and able to do it again.[/FONT]