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Thread: Longest shot, with the best shot: Future bets and season wagering for a team with LONG ODDS

  1. #1 Longest shot, with the best shot: Future bets and season wagering for a team with LONG ODDS 
    RX Wizard NFLTrends's Avatar
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    This team hasnt been talked about in awhile, and definitely not this season. And they have made some moves, while flying completely under the radar... not even getting a glance or a chance from bookmakers and bettors alike. But, they have been doing some interesting things, while trying to put a winning recipe together. Lets take a quick look at whats been happening:

    Land a Defensive Coordinator who brought your team into a top 10 defense

    Land an Offensive Coordinator who brought a team to a Super Bowl

    Land a Coach that has been on the same coaching staff for 4 Super Bowl wins

    If you haven't guessed the team I am talking about, its the Detroit Lions!

    Even more moves have happened... Its like, somehow, the Head Coach is deciding to use the same offensive schemes as the team with the most Super Bowl wins in recent memory... The New England Patriots.
    While following the defensive schemes of one of the most feared defenses in recent memory... The Seattle Seahawks
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    Lets look at the offensive moves:
    1. Get a BIG unmovable line to buy time for the QB and RB to make their move and eat time off the clock
    2. Running back committee and an offensive coordinator to run and eat clock (off coord averaged 134yds game rushing, and brought Seahawks a Super Bowl)
    3. Offensive catching TE's on each side of the line, giving different looks to confuse defense as to a run or pass. (Remember the tandem of Gronk and Hernandez?)
    4. Slot receivers galore... while throwing in 1 or 2 long play receivers for a little "razzle-dazzle"
    Its almost like this guy has had VIP unfettered access to Bill Bellechek and the Patriots playbook for 14 years.... Hey....Wait a second!!!!... (Sarcasm)

    On defense, they have more than secured the pass rushing with their new defensive coordinator, as he has had a 47 year history of knowing how to pressure the QB, and how to blitz. Two of the Lions LB's alone in 2018 had 17 sacks between the two of them, thats the most the lions have had from LB since 1993! And this defensive coordinator did this in his first year while making the lions a TOP 10 DEFENSE, so with another year of coaching and scheming coming up, it should get even better. Their secondary was really good last year, and should stay on track, and hopefully improve.
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    Now, lets look at their division:

    Chicago Bears are the favorite to win their division. I can see why many think that, with an explosive QB and offense that seems to make plays out of nothing, and a defense led by Mack. But, the way I am seeing things, is they take a step back this year. While they surprised a lot of people last year, this is the year they come back down to earth... Last year they succeeded to win because they had a terribly easy schedule, played only 2 teams that made the playoffs, who faced each other in the Super Bowl, The Patriots and Rams... going 1-1 and only beating the SB losing Rams. This year they play 6 teams that made the playoffs, AND they get a SHORT WEEKS REST after playing a Sunday game vs the Giants, they have a THURSDAY GAME (Thanksgiving) ON THE ROAD versus (heres the river card) the Detroit Lions. And its gets better, from November 3rd till the November 28ths game, the Bears will have traveled over 6000 miles in that span as they have to travel from the east coast to the west coast and then back again. While they may start out undefeated thru week 3 by the end of the season, I can see them trying to stay around .500 with the schedule and travel they have.

    Minnesota Vikings have made some moves, have some playmakers, and a defense.... But, I am NOT a fan of them signing Kirk Cousins, but I have as many playoffs wins as he does (0) and he has been to 1 single playoff game. Cousins record versus teams with 8 or more wins during the season is HORRENDOUS! How many teams with a winning record did Cousins lead his team to victory against last season? ... I'll give you a moment to think.... 1... 1 single team with a winning record, the Eagles. He seems to always disappoint, doesnt seem to want to win, and wont step up when he is needed to play his best. And YES, his stats lie... He is GREAT at beating BAD TEAMS, but, cant beat the good teams, and isnt consistent when facing good teams.... VIKING FAIL!

    Green Bay Packers... On the verge of rebuilding imo, and should be another disappointing year for their fan base...

    Should steal a game from the bears, steal a game from the vikings, and BOTH from the Packers... 4-2 Division record (Wait... the over/under on TOTAL WINS for the Lions is only 6.5!!, so they only need to win 3 games outside of their division??)

    DETROIT LIONS TO WIN DIVISION +1000 (10-1) !!!!YES PLEASE!!!!
    Detroit Lions OVER 6.5 WINS season -140 !!!YES PLEASE!!! (Im waiting to see if it goes to 7 so I get get closer to +even)
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    Lets look at week #1 BEFORE we look into where they are going to get those other wins from for the OVER wins total.

    Lions -1.5 vs Cardinals (48.5)

    Lions implementing an eat the clock and drive offense
    Cardinals starting a rookie QB in which like most NFL teams, will give him a basic playbook package, and ease him in as they are hoping he is their franchise hopeful. Dont want him injured, lots of running and quick passes.
    Lions defense is trending upward
    Cardinals defense is below average as a whole, but their PASS defense is among the best.

    Cant see WHY this total is this high... all my numbers and stats show it will be LUCKY to eclipse 32 points, and the Lions taking this one 20-10

    WEEK #1 Lions -1.5 and UNDER 48.5

    ------------------------------------------------------------

    There we go, another win for them on a Season total of 6.5... Bringing them to 5 wins for the season... and need only 2 to go!

    Remaining games: 9
    Chargers
    Eagles
    Chiefs
    Giants
    Raiders
    Cowboys
    Redskins
    Buccaneers
    Broncos

    So... to win this over bet, AND make the playoffs, AND win their division a solid 9-7 record should do it! So we would need four wins here... and cant WAIT till the lines come out where the Lions will be underdogs in some of these! So here are my WIN PREDICTIONS for them (barring any major injury, since Tom Savage is the backup to Stafford lol), and IN ORDER of strength!

    Giants
    Buccaneers
    Raiders
    Broncos
    Redskins
    Eagles
    Chargers
    Cowboys
    Chiefs

    Very winnable games by whats on paper with the top 4 vs Giants, Buccs, Raiders and Broncos.. and a little cushion with also winnable games vs Redskins and Eagles... So possibly shooting for a 11-5 or 10-6 record is even better! Which leads to the FINALE!!!:
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Looking at this year, as I always do starting in April, following moves, trades, free agency and the draft, I see this team as the MOST profitable for future betting with the biggest upside for hedging at the end. I had to ask myself these questions:

    Would you bet a team thats 100-1 to win the SB if they could win their division or make the playoffs?
    Would you bet a team thats 50-1 to win the conference championship if they could win the division or make the playoffs?

    I AM!

    Ill take a TOP 10 DEFENSE with an offense that is definitely looking better and better ANY DAY OF THE WEEK FOR THESE ODDS!

    This is my sleeper team for this year!

    Season total over 6.5 -140
    Win division 10-1
    Make Playoffs +375
    Win Conference 50-1
    Win SB 100-1

    Good luck this season everyone! I hope you all have a nice and profitable year. I wish the season would start already!
    2014 NFL 51-33-1 62.35%
    2013 NFL 61-34 64.21% Finished 6th place in the LVH Supercontest
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  2. #2  
    Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling tatehill2000's Avatar
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    Great Write up Trends!

    Your a class act man...
    Gl
    GOLD is the Money of the KINGS, SILVER is the Money of the GENTLEMEN, BARTER is the Money of the PEASANTS, but DEBT is the Money of the SLAVES!!!
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  3. #3  
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    My only comment is it's usually takes 2-3 years for an all-new coaching staff to properly develop their team to the playoffs. To think they will get there their 1st year is a shaky proposition....they may get to 7 wins, but the playoffs are doubtful.
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  4. #4  
    RX Wizard NFLTrends's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by joeysangria View Post
    My only comment is it's usually takes 2-3 years for an all-new coaching staff to properly develop their team to the playoffs. To think they will get there their 1st year is a shaky proposition....they may get to 7 wins, but the playoffs are doubtful.
    It isnt the first year... they came on board in the off season of 2018. And they made strides with what little they had, and now were able to do what they like this year.
    2014 NFL 51-33-1 62.35%
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  5. #5  
    RX Junior Bruins4Life's Avatar
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    Here are my numbers for those bets as of today.

    Over 6.5 wins -120
    Win division 10 to 1
    Make playoffs +425
    Win Conference 50 to 1
    Win Super Bowl 80 yo 1
    How did a generation raised on South Park and Family Guy become sooooo sensitive?
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  6. #6  
    RX Senior
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    Thanks for sharing the info Trends and hope the season treats you well.
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  7. #7  
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    Thanks NFLTRENDS. First week Detroit, Tenn, Houston.
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  8. #8  
    Dain Bramaged Twisted's Avatar
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    Good Stuff N

    " I'm hiding in Honduras I'm a desperate man Send lawyers, guns and money The shit has hit the fan "
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  9. #9  
    RX Junior CADILLACJACK's Avatar
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    Great stuff thanks!!! Getting me pumped in July!!! Love reading this shit
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  10. #10  
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    Dallas 23-1 odds solid for me to take. Def improved yet again, WR core solid, Witten back, kitna will do well for Dak. I love your lions over 6.5 and division.
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  11. #11  
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    Niners.
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  12. #12  
    RX Junior CADILLACJACK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thinwhiteduke View Post
    Niners.
    I'm torn on them...I don't feel Jimmy G will be the same after the injury. He'll be playing with a big ass knee brace and he wasn't the most durable QB to start with. He could easily go down again one bad hit or one bad tweak of that knee. I hope not. They sure added some talent both sides. I love WR Pettis will turn into a game changer WR IMO people gonna know who he is
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  13. #13  
    RX Wizard NFLTrends's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CADILLACJACK View Post
    Great stuff thanks!!! Getting me pumped in July!!! Love reading this shit
    Just a few more weeks to go....
    2014 NFL 51-33-1 62.35%
    2013 NFL 61-34 64.21% Finished 6th place in the LVH Supercontest
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  14. #14  
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    Quote Originally Posted by NFLTrends View Post
    Just a few more weeks to go....
    It’s really solid analysis…its worth remembering in the NFL teams can go from being highly unfancied to successful in the space of 12 months….just a few I can think of off the top of my head that made a good run: Chicago 150/1 last year, LA Chargers were 33/1 last year, Atlanta 66/1 in 2016, Carolina were about 40/1 the year they made the SB, Jacksonville were about 66/1 a couple years back and should’ve made the SB….point is there are plenty of long priced teams that surprise so it pays to keep an open mind with the NFL
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  15. #15  
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    Detroit 14/1 to win the division here in Aus!
    I also think Chicago are overpriced this season and may regress.
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