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Thread: Tuesday service play thread July 2, 2019

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  1. #26  
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    Quote Originally Posted by bmd1803 View Post
    ANDRE GOMES

    3* New York Mets +133

    2* Philadelphia -114

    2* Kansas City / Cleveland over 9


    2* Colorado -126
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  2. #27  
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    Executive

    250% Brewers
    250%Phillies
    250% A's
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  3. #28  
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    SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP

    Game: (903) Miami Marlins at (904) Washington Nationals
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:05 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 2%
    Play: Washington Nationals -194

    View Analysis

    Game: (913) Boston Red Sox at (914) Toronto Blue Jays
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:07 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Westgate
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Boston Red Sox -156

    View Analysis

    listed pitchers
    Game: (905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Cincinnati Reds
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: Cincinnati Reds -105




    Game: (925) New York Yankees at (926) New York Mets
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: New York Yankees -145

    View Analysis

    A major contributing factor who wins a baseball game is confidence. Confident that their starter will put in a good performance and confidence that they can come back from a deficit and win, even if their opponent scores some runs. The league as a whole is 23-0 SU as a rested favorite in a series opener when they are off a game as a road favorite and they came back from a deficit to win in their starter’s last start. The average margin of victory is a whopping 4.48 runs.
    The Yankees themselves are 15-0 SU as a favorite of more than 130 when they are off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 12-plus hits and it is before the All-Star break and 12-0 SU as a rested favorite in the first game of a road series when they are off a win as a favorite in which they trailed and it is before the All-Star break.
    Both these teams had multiple multiple-run innings in their last game. This favors the Yankees, as they are 9-0 SU as a rested road favorite in the first game of a series off a game as a favorite in which they had multiple multiple-run innings, while the Mets are 0-9 SU off a game as a favorite in which they had multiple multiple-run innings.
    Finally, the Mets have had a lot of trouble recovering from a come-from-behind win as a home favorite, as they are 0-14 SU as a home dog after a regulation win as a home favorite in which they came back from a deficit.
    It appears to us that many are overestimating the effect that playing in London will have on the Yankees. The flight time from New York to San Francisco is 6.5 hours and the flight time from New York to London is 7 hours – a trivial difference. And the Yankees have rest. And James Paxson didn’t play in London.
    Plenty of line value on the Yankees here.
    Game: (927) Houston Astros at (928) Colorado Rockies
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Heritage
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Houston Astros +117

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    listed pitchers
    Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) San Diego Padres
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 10:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: San Diego Padres -151

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    LISTED PITCHERS
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  4. #29  
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    DR. CHUCK BASKETBALL PLAYS

    Game: (631) Atlanta Dream at (632) Minnesota Lynx
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:00 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 2%
    Play: Atlanta Dream 7.5 (-115)

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    BASEBALL PLAYS

    Game: (917) Los Angeles Angels at (918) Texas Rangers
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:05 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: William Hill
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: 1H Total Under 6.0 (-105)

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    Suarez v. Minor
    We had this as our big feature game from Monday night and the tragedy that struck the Angels and the sports world occurred with the very untimely death of 27 year old starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs. A friend of mine in this business happens to be a close friend of the young man and happened to have been in his wedding just in December of 2018. The kid had promise both in his professional and personal life and being taken so young is a very painful loss. It may be considered borderline impossible to attempt to cap something as ridiculous as a baseball game wager just 24 hours in the wake of such a thing, but somehow these 50 guys and their coaching staffs are tasked with putting together a lineup and plan to play a damned game tonight as regularly scheduled.
    Where we look in such a ridiculous spot is in the vicinity of where we were heading last evening. We took the Minor side of things with him in a groove, the young lefty on the mound for the Angels, and the lineup being woeful of late against LHP...taking just the ML of the first 5 on Texas. Tonight we are altering slightly our focus and looking at the Under first 5 and in a way of a fade of motivation, interest, and overall physical ability (as it relates to the emotional aspect of the human condition). I liked the Under last night but at 6 (or 6.5 if you're lucky!) the value is immense with these 2 lefties and the overall prowess of desire to play a game on a field tonight in front of thousands of screaming fans who do not feel the true pain of what happened just yesterday afternoon. Aside from the loss of Tyler, these 2 teams rank 28th and 30th in metric batting as a whole team against left handed pitching since June 15th. The Rangers side of it being so bad they actually hammered down a -13.2 wRAA and an absymal .222 wOBA. They might as well almost have not even walked to the plate with their personal song they've been so poor. The Angels are only slightly better throwing down the gauntlet to the tune of -7.4 wRAA and .249 wOBA.
    These 2 teams since the middle of last month have combined for nearly 21 weighted runs WORSE than the average team in such circumstances!
    I left that last sentence alone, because if anything adds to the heat and the specific pitchers, and the death, and the travel, and the families, and the unknown cause of death, and the sudden nature of it all, with 24 hours later a game must commence...this stat adds to it wondering if a run might cross the plate against Suarez and Minor for the duration of how long Ausmus and Woodward leave them on the bump.
    On the Suarez front...as we have discussed Minor ad nauseam (STUD)...he is one of the starters for the Angels being given a chance to do it alone. This will be just his 5th start and is likely the Angels top starting pitching prospect (#3 organizationally) but does not just open games or have an opener for him, he will get the ball and keep it as long as he keeps the Rangers lineup at bay. He now (no good way to say it) has an even bigger incentive to go out and just pitch his heart out...both for his lost teammate, his teammate's grieving family, his teammates who knew Skaggs like a brother, and for his positioning on the roster!
    I fully expect both starters to match each other in goose eggs hung on the board, especially through the first time through the lineup...when the freshness and shock are still at the forefront of playing a game during all the goings on...Minor has proven to be able to get through the lineup of most opponents multiple more times if needed, and Suarez will have the help of an oft-used bullpen to aide...while we just need at worst a 3-2 game heading to the 6th inning. Vegas is telling us that is what they expect, but I sure question where this came from and if they punted on being able to guess any sort of idea of what this might look like tonight.
    Game: (919) Detroit Tigers at (920) Chicago White Sox
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: 1H Detroit Tigers -117

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    Boyd v. Lopez
    Simplistic system fading the Vegas move of full game dog yet first 5 chalk. Matthew Boyd is as nasty as they come...but he gives up too many dingers. His K/BB ratio is nothing short of fantastic at about 11.5/1.7 and his FIP/xFIP is dead in line with his ERA...likely why the Sox are slight favorites full game...as Boyd is unlikely to get past the 6th inning no matter the progress.
    Reginald Lopez on the other end has the opposite looking metrics...this play is pretty simple...but still relies on Detroit managing to cross the plate at least a couple times no matter how bad the opposing starter is objectively. Fading the starter in all the MLB with the worst xFIP should be an easy winner...and Boyd is FAR superior to Lopez...but this line reflects the incredibly woeful Tiger bats!
    Still the value facing the sabermetric worst starter with a guy on the mound 2 full points better is not to be passed on...
    Game: (921) Cleveland Indians at (922) Kansas City Royals
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:15 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Heritage
    Play Rating: 5%
    Play: 1H Cleveland Indians -0.5 (-140)
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  5. #30  
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    ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS

    Game: (913) Boston Red Sox at (914) Toronto Blue Jays
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:07 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Westgate
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Total Over 9.5 (-120)

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    Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Tampa Bay Rays
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 7:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: William Hill
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-145)

    View Analysis

    Game: (921) Cleveland Indians at (922) Kansas City Royals
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 8:15 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
    Play Rating: 4%
    Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115)

    View Analysis

    Game: (911) San Francisco Giants at (912) San Diego Padres
    Date/Time: Jul 2 2019 10:10 PM EDT
    Betting Line Provider: Westgate
    Play Rating: 3%
    Play: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+125)
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  6. #31  
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    MLB(Bob Balfe)
    10:05 PM EST
    Rotation #923-924
    Twins -105 over A’s
    Odorizzi/Mengden
    Jake Odorizzi has been really good this year for Minnesota and rock solid on the road. Daniel Mengden has only pitched in limited action this year and although his numbers have been good he does walk batters which hurts when facing good offenses. The Twins bats have been excellent on the road this year as well. Take Minnesota
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  7. #32  
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    Philly Guy - Phillies Cubs Brewers Red Sox

    Augie J - Phillies NYY over
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  8. #33  
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    Dirty Bear Sports

    MLB:

    COL F5 -.5 +100 3u

    MLB Season: 59-68-7 46% -45.75 units
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