Sunday service play thread July 7, 2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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[h=2]BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 7)[/h][FONT=&quot]The model has 8 totals and 3 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]952 .5* PHI/NYM u8.5 -111
954 .5* MIA/ATL u9.5 -110
957 .5* STL -113
959 .5* COL -119
960 .5* COL/ARI u9 -110
962 .5* SD/LAD u8.5 -110
968 .5* TB/NYY u8 -110
969 .5* LAA +147
970 .5* LAA/HOU u10.5 -113
978 .67* KC/WAS u10 -113
980 .5* CHC/CHW u10.5 -111[/FONT]

7-7-MLB-Baseball-Handicapping-Software-1024x442.jpg
 

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MLB(Bob Balfe)
1:10 PM EST
Rotation #967-969
Rays -115 over Yankees
Morton/Paxton
The Yankees have owned the Rays this year, but with one swing of the bat the Rays walked it off last night and are riding that momentum. Charlie Morton has been great for Tampa this season and I expect the Rays bats to come out swinging against James Paxton who has struggled on the road. Tampa is feeling good about themselves and are looking to gain a little ground going into the midway point of the season. Take the Rays.
 

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Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 7/7

100* Yankees -105
100* Rockies -125
100* Over 9 Reds/Indians
 

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FEZZIK

2* Arizona / Colorado under 9
2* New York Yankees / Tampa bay under 8
2* Washington / Kansas City under 9.5
 

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Desert sports:

Early release> stl-120 and stl 08. 2 team par

cle-120
tb-110
mil/pit u9.5
 

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+EV: MLB 4u: 952 PHI/NYM un8.5 -110 (A Nola | Z Wheeler) (Sunday, July 7th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -105 (1st 5 Innings) (C Anderson | J Musgrove) (Sunday, July 7th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 979 Chicago Cubs -158 (K Hendricks | I Nova) (Sunday, July 7th)
 

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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115)

View Analysis

Price v. Soto
Why stop now? We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs. We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible. Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction. His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB. Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up
.241 ISO
22 wRC
5.7 wRAA
.371 wOBA
130 wRC+
metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs
On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls. Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00
Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last week of play.
All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM

Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets -102

View Analysis

Nola v. Wheeler
The biggest aspect of this play is the funky nature of the line. Sure Philly has Harper and the "better" pitcher and Nola has dominated the first 5 inning money, but Wheeler has actually been at least as good, just basically shut down the insanely HOT Yankee lineup at Citi Field last start out, and before that did the same to this Philly lineup on the road. This might be why the money is on the Mets for the full game, following this aspect made me happy, as I LOVED the Mets when the line opened at regular -110 juice...opened bigger at Pinnacle, then dropped!
Nola is a first 5 stud and likely holds his own the first 2 times through the lineup, but even that is in doubt as he drops so precipitously the second time through, losing 2 Ks per 9 and adding 2 BB per 9 while going up in FIP from around 3.00 to 4.50! Wheeler, however, excels the second time through after facing opponents, dropping xFIP almost a point, ratcheting up his strikeouts, dropping his BB per 9 from 4 to 1, and allowing a .230 BA!
The bargain basement prices we're being offered on Wheeler lately are too good to pass up, and being at home, and almost a DOG we can thank Aaron Nola, who likely gets pounded by McNeil and Alonso at some point in the middle of this game!
 

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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -107

View Analysis

Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-108)

View Analysis

Game: (969) Los Angeles Angels at (970) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-107)

View Analysis

Game: (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
 

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Dwayne Bryant

5% Cubs/Wsox over 10.5
4% Balt/Tor under 10.5
3% Stl/SF under 8
 

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Desert sports:

Early release> stl-120 and stl 08. 2 team par

cle-120
tb-110
mil/pit u9.5
 

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