Betting the 2019 HR Derby: Discussion

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-Forecasted 10 mph wind blowing in from right, shifting to Right to left as the event goes. Slight edge to right-handed hitters.
-Dimensions of Progressive are pretty even from a distance standpoint, but roughly 20' high wall from LF line to almost dead CF. Edge to LH hitters.
-With the above in mind, no great advantage for RH/LH hitters.

One thing I always do is watch a little video of each contestant. I'm looking for the guys with the simplest, most repeatable mechanics. I don't like betting on guys with a lot of moving parts in their load/swing (i.e. big leg kicks). Harper was the exception to the rule last year IMO. If you go back and look at the last 10 years or so, it's usually guys with small leg kick/strides who usually win. Cespedes 2x, Judge, Stanton, Todd Frazier, Fielder 2x, Cano, and Morneau all fit that category. The only guys with big leg kick/stride to win over that span were Harper and Papi.

So, I've broken these guys up into 2 categories: Simple/complex (my opinion)

Complex: Pederson, Bell, Santana, Acuna

Simple: Bregman, Vlad Jr, Alonso, Chapman

Bregman is a line drive guy, and the high wall will probably take a few away from him. I'll eliminate him.

Process of elimination has me down to Vlad Jr, Alonso, and Chapman. I'll probably throw $50 on two of them, I don't know which two yet.

I'd be interested to hear others opinions, whether you agree or disagree. Feel free to chime in.
 
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Took these two as well. Vlad was +450 for me. Alonso having his nephew pitch to him crossed him off my list. Gotta have a coach or someone with experience doin that

This is a very good point. The pitcher's impact is very underrated in this event.
 

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Vlad + 425 hedge for
seeds 1-4 main wager
 

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Vlad wore himself out...congrats to Alonso and $1Mil plus him donating 10%
 
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One of the best Derbies I've seen. Great show. Alonso overcame his subpar pitcher, although he did throw much better in the final round.
 

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