While we are in the MLB break i thought I would post this thread to see if there is any interest.
Lately I have been using the SBR ( our sister forum ) line feed there are 3 nice attributes to the page
1. You can click on the line you like and record it as play - super easy for tracking your record. This record can be exported to a excel file for easy manipulation if you playing multi sports
2. The history is great so far I have only gone back a few weeks for data but the storage is great . Will be back testing NFL LY to see if it's history is there during the MLB break
3. Lastly they show lines from over 20 Sports books so you can set you pages however you like - but the best part is they highlight the Best line in BLUE, & that is the purpose of this note.
Here is how I have my screen set up for PAGE 1.
You can see yesterday Matchbook (MB) had the Best Fav Line on the JAYS & the Jays covered the RL . For those of you who don't know Matchbook is a betting exchange that allows the market to set the lines they just take a commission of each winning bet.
IMO b/c of this Matchbook should always have the best line, but that always isn't the case see the second game Bookmaker has the best line on Philly and they covered RL.
Its early days for this tracking but I am definitely seeing some trends emerge & here they are for discussion purposes
1A. MB should always be the best line on the FAV when they are not consider the Dog. But when they are the cover the RL 50% of the time, this is usually a +$ bet.
1B. When MB Is the best FAV & the best dog consider the FAV & the RL as well.
1C. When MB is the best dog line the dog (but not the best fav) is winning at 70% rate & the ARL is over 50% . This makes sense to me all the other books shade the dog line, here is a good example of that from yesterday. You will notice on this screen shot MB is the best line but keep in mind there over 20 books listed so if you scroll through the pages you will see YOUwager had better line than MB which why they weren't the BL.
2. When 5Dimes is the best dog line the play is the Dog and don't be afraid to hit the ARL it is cashing > than 60% of course the above Jays line proves. Unless you arbitraged both RL's or even just went JAYS RL AND O'S ML you would have made a profit.
3. When Bookmaker is the best favorite line consider the Fav and again don't be shy on the RL. The sample size on this one is small but the RL is cashing at high rate. This surprises me b/c I have always consider BKMKR to be a book for sharp's b/c they open the lines. In the first example BKMAKER had the Best line on PHILLY and they covered the RL - MB also had the best line on the dog so we have another conflicting play or an opportunity to once again arbitrage the game if you want.
4. The last point I want to make is when the lines are tight <.05 for the fav among the first five books (MB, PINNY, 5D, Bookmaker & Heritage) like this example the Fav seems to cover but only by one run - this is good if you like to play winning margin bets . Usually win by 1 is +250 of more for a fav. And once again you could arbitrage that with a RL bet for the same side if you wanted. This trend was 3-0 yesterday.
So that's the summary so far fell free to ask questions or comment if you have a similar strategy - I am excited to back test this across different sports while we have a break.
One thing that surprised me was how few time Pinnacle actually offered the best line on either a dog or Fav in a game, but when they did on the dog the dog won every time food for thought small sample.
Lastly I think those can be very useful for live betting especially with books who post lines right away once the games start like Bet365.
Powerz
Lately I have been using the SBR ( our sister forum ) line feed there are 3 nice attributes to the page
1. You can click on the line you like and record it as play - super easy for tracking your record. This record can be exported to a excel file for easy manipulation if you playing multi sports
2. The history is great so far I have only gone back a few weeks for data but the storage is great . Will be back testing NFL LY to see if it's history is there during the MLB break
3. Lastly they show lines from over 20 Sports books so you can set you pages however you like - but the best part is they highlight the Best line in BLUE, & that is the purpose of this note.
Here is how I have my screen set up for PAGE 1.
You can see yesterday Matchbook (MB) had the Best Fav Line on the JAYS & the Jays covered the RL . For those of you who don't know Matchbook is a betting exchange that allows the market to set the lines they just take a commission of each winning bet.
IMO b/c of this Matchbook should always have the best line, but that always isn't the case see the second game Bookmaker has the best line on Philly and they covered RL.
Its early days for this tracking but I am definitely seeing some trends emerge & here they are for discussion purposes
1A. MB should always be the best line on the FAV when they are not consider the Dog. But when they are the cover the RL 50% of the time, this is usually a +$ bet.
1B. When MB Is the best FAV & the best dog consider the FAV & the RL as well.
1C. When MB is the best dog line the dog (but not the best fav) is winning at 70% rate & the ARL is over 50% . This makes sense to me all the other books shade the dog line, here is a good example of that from yesterday. You will notice on this screen shot MB is the best line but keep in mind there over 20 books listed so if you scroll through the pages you will see YOUwager had better line than MB which why they weren't the BL.
2. When 5Dimes is the best dog line the play is the Dog and don't be afraid to hit the ARL it is cashing > than 60% of course the above Jays line proves. Unless you arbitraged both RL's or even just went JAYS RL AND O'S ML you would have made a profit.
3. When Bookmaker is the best favorite line consider the Fav and again don't be shy on the RL. The sample size on this one is small but the RL is cashing at high rate. This surprises me b/c I have always consider BKMKR to be a book for sharp's b/c they open the lines. In the first example BKMAKER had the Best line on PHILLY and they covered the RL - MB also had the best line on the dog so we have another conflicting play or an opportunity to once again arbitrage the game if you want.
4. The last point I want to make is when the lines are tight <.05 for the fav among the first five books (MB, PINNY, 5D, Bookmaker & Heritage) like this example the Fav seems to cover but only by one run - this is good if you like to play winning margin bets . Usually win by 1 is +250 of more for a fav. And once again you could arbitrage that with a RL bet for the same side if you wanted. This trend was 3-0 yesterday.
So that's the summary so far fell free to ask questions or comment if you have a similar strategy - I am excited to back test this across different sports while we have a break.
One thing that surprised me was how few time Pinnacle actually offered the best line on either a dog or Fav in a game, but when they did on the dog the dog won every time food for thought small sample.
Lastly I think those can be very useful for live betting especially with books who post lines right away once the games start like Bet365.
Powerz
