[h=1]CFB futures: 25 win totals that stand out to 'The Bear'[/h]
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Caesars Sportsbook has rolled out some college football season win totals over the past couple of weeks. Here are some of my thoughts -- some more in-depth than others -- on select teams and what might or might not be worth a play.
(Note: Teams listed in alphabetical order.)
[h=2]Alabama Crimson Tide (O/U: 11.5 wins)[/h]I love the 11.5 on Alabama at +250 to the over. The Tide's best chance to lose is their final regular-season game (at Auburn), so you could play the over, and then if the Tide are 11-0 heading to Jordan Hare take a little Auburn on the money line as a bit of a hedge.
[h=2]Auburn Tigers (8)[/h]Auburn is a high-ceiling -- but low-floor -- team this year. The Tigers' total is 8, but they draw Florida and Georgia from the East and face Oregon, Florida, Texas A&M and LSU away from home. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Total "stay away" for me.
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[h=2]Boston College Eagles (6.5)[/h]ESPN's FPI gives Boston College just a 16 percent chance to win seven games, and that's what it will take to eclipse the season win total of 6.5. The Eagles lost a ton of production on defense and will have a less experienced offensive line blocking for running back AJ Dillon and protecting quarterback Anthony Brown. With four road games -- Clemson, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pitt -- among the final five, BC and those new starters better rack up the wins early; 6-6 sounds right here.
[h=2]California Golden Bears (6)[/h]Is Cal's offense going to be any better after losing its leading rusher and top four pass-catchers? It's hard to see how it would be. The defense will be again solid, but solid enough to win seven games and top the season win total of six with road games at Washington, Ole Miss, Oregon, Utah, Stanford and UCLA? Three of the Bears' wins last year were by three points or fewer. I'm in the under camp here.
[h=2]Clemson Tigers (11.5)[/h]Clemson has lost two regular-season games in four years and could be a 17-point favorite in every game this year. Don't you have to play the over?
[h=2]Duke Blue Devils (5.5)[/h]Don't you just have to trust David Cutcliffe? The Blue Devils' win total is 5.5, and I wouldn't be thinking about playing the under, as Duke's running game and defense should be good, and it's not like quarterback Quentin Harris played poorly when Daniel Jones was injured. Given Coach Cut's propensity to pull upsets (Duke has won seven of the past eight games outright in which it was an underdog), I'd lean toward the over here if you're itching to play a Duke total.
[h=2]Florida Gators (9)[/h]Dan Mullen did a great job last year in his first season as Florida's head coach, winning 10 games and dominating a New Year's Six Bowl game vs. Michigan. But while the Gators might be a better team this year, topping nine wins might be tough. Florida faces Miami and Georgia away from home and also has road games at LSU, South Carolina and Missouri. Home games against Auburn and Florida State aren't automatic wins, either. So Florida has to go 5-2 in those seven games to beat you, assuming the Gators win their other five games. Florida was plus-12 in turnovers and 3-0 in games decided by seven points or less last year and won another close game at Vanderbilt. Those things have a tendency to even out over time.
[h=2]Illinois Fighting Illini (4)[/h]Illinois' win total is four -- and that's how many games the Illini won last year, when they weren't very good. With a bunch of starters back on defense, a deep running game and a schedule that features Akron, Rutgers and UConn, could the Illini get to five wins?
[h=2]Indiana Hoosiers (6)[/h]Is anything more perfect than Indiana's win total being six? The Hoosiers haven't won more than six games in the regular season since 2007. The list of things I would enjoy less than betting on an Indiana season win total isn't very long.
[h=2]Kansas Jayhawks (3)[/h]Can Les Miles pull two upsets in Year 1 at Kansas? Because that's what it will take to win four games and cash the over. Assuming the Jayhawks beat Indiana State and Coastal Carolina, you still have to find two more wins (KU hosts Texas Tech, West Virginia, K-State and Baylor).
[h=2]Kentucky Wildcats (6.5)[/h]Kentucky is going to be an automatic under play for many people, given the Wildcats lose so much on defense and running back Benny Snell. But I'm not sold the Cats can't back up 2018 with at least a seven-win season. UK has recruited well, and the offense should be better, meaning we likely won't see a stretch like last season in which it scores 14, 14, 15, 17 and 7. I won't be running to bet over 6.5, but it's how I would play it if I had to.
[h=2]Louisville Cardinals (3.5)[/h]Louisville had all the looks of a team that quit on the 2018 season, dropping its final seven games by 35, 18, 21, 61, 31, 42 and 46 points. It was obvious Bobby Petrino was gone and turned into a total throwaway year. So while the schedule makes it hard to find more than two wins -- and the total is 3.5 -- could this be a spot where it's a total reset in Year 1 under Scott Satterfield? Whatever roster attrition that has taken place could be a good thing. The players who remain are on board, and maybe coming off of last year's embarrassment, the Cardinals show a little more fight and pull an upset or two, putting under 3.5 in doubt.
[h=2]LSU Tigers (9)[/h]At this time last year, there was talk that LSU could be a 7-5 or 6-6 type of team. But the Tigers blew out Miami in the season-opener and used that underdog slight as motivation to drive them to a 10-win year. Now big things are expected in Year 2 with Joe Burrow under center, and if you assume a loss to Alabama -- and why wouldn't you, being that LSU has scored 9.1 PPG in the past eight meetings -- then LSU can lose only one game the rest of the way to cash over 9. I see losable games at Texas, at Florida, at Mississippi State, vs. Auburn and vs. Texas A&M, so I have an easier time seeing 8-4 than 10-2. But, in my opinion, 9-3 is likely the landing spot.
[h=2]Michigan Wolverines (10.5)[/h]Doesn't it look like oddsmakers are baiting you to go under 10.5 wins here? Most fans feel Michigan is overrated. The Wolverines get both Michigan State and Ohio State in Ann Arbor -- where Jim Harbaugh is 0-4 vs. those two teams -- and another potential top-10 team in Notre Dame also visits the Big House. Michigan's 1-9 record against top-10 teams under Harbaugh is well-documented. There's also a trip to Penn State, and by that point, the Nittany Lions' young offensive skill might be grown up in what will be a raucous atmosphere. The under looks too easy, which means be careful here. Those buildings in Las Vegas are big and shiny for a reason.
[h=2]Missouri Tigers (8)[/h]Missouri seems to be the "schedule darling" this year, as the Tigers have winnable road games at Wyoming, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Arkansas, while they get West Virginia, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Florida and Tennessee in Columbia. Those all look all winnable, too. And quarterback Kelly Bryant transferred in. A win total of eight looks too good to be true. Though I wouldn't play the under, I also would think twice about being super bullish on the over.
[h=2]Nebraska Cornhuskers (8.5)[/h]Nebraska will be an immensely popular pick over 8.5, but I still need to see more from the defense. I'm not playing the under, but those who follow me know I am not a fan of being on the public side.
[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels (5)[/h]Might North Carolina open 0-5? The Tar Heels start the year vs. South Carolina, Miami, Wake Forest, Appalachian State and Clemson. And they will do it with a very young quarterback. Getting to five wins -- or more than five -- might be tough in the first year of Mack Brown's second stint in Chapel Hill. Although, having worked with Mack the past few years, I hope I'm wrong!
[h=2]Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9)[/h]Last year, Notre Dame won five one-score games en route to a 12-0 regular season. Gone are Jerry Tillery, Te'Von Coney, Julian Love and Drue Tranquill from the defense. Big-play wide receiver Myles Boykin is no longer available to quarterback Ian Book. Caesars posted the Irish win total at nine, and I've seen 9.5s out there, too. Notre Dame should be a decent underdog at Michigan and Georgia. So for this purpose, let's say they drop those two games. Are they going to run the slate at Stanford, vs. a USC team that was in a tight game with them last year, vs. Virginia and Virginia Tech and at Duke?
And the way the schedule sets up, Virginia Tech, Duke, Navy and Boston College all are idle in November the week prior to facing the Irish -- and the Irish play each week from Oct. 26 on. Rest could mean a lot at that point of the season. Hitting 10-2 is going to be really tough to come by this year for Notre Dame. And that's what it takes to beat you.
[h=2]Ohio State Buckeyes (10)[/h]Caesars posted 10 as the win total for Ohio State, and, like Notre Dame, I've seen 9.5s out there too, which is how I would handle the Buckeyes this season. I have a hard time seeing them going 9-3. Is OSU going to lose at Nebraska, at Michigan and vs. either Michigan State, Penn State or Wisconsin at home? The Buckeyes still have more talent than anyone in the Big Ten, and I have a suspicion that head coach Ryan Day will see that OSU avoids the head-scratching loss that has tripped them up each of the past five years. A new message certainly can't hurt. Outside of being a home 'dog against Michigan when not many gave them a chance, last year OSU played its best football early in the year when Day was the interim coach.
[h=2]Penn State Nittany Lions (8.5)[/h]I don't know what to do with Penn State. The Lions have sophomores at all the skill spots, and the schedule should allow them to ease into things. When the schedule toughens up later in the year, this team could be scary on offense to go along with what should be a really good defense. There's a good chance the Lions get to nine wins this year -- the current total is 8.5 -- and if I can buy stock in the 2020 team, count me in.
[h=2]Purdue Boilermakers (7)[/h]FPI gives Purdue a 15 percent chance to win at least seven games and a 5 percent chance to win at least eight. So the numbers say 6-6 is a much better chance than exceeding seven wins, which is the current win total. Even last year with a monumental upset of Ohio State, the Boilermakers won six games, getting blown out by Minnesota and losing to Eastern Michigan at home. The program has been down, and you have to go back to 2007 to find the last time Purdue won seven games and 2006 to find the last time it won eight. Wide receiver Rondale Moore is a stud, but the offense will be almost entirely new around him.
The nonconference features no gimmes, with games at Nevada, vs. Vandy and vs. TCU. There are also road games at Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin. This could push on seven, but being that I don't see 8-4, the under is the play here.
[h=2]Texas A&M Aggies (7.5)[/h]Texas A&M is going to be the ultimate "power rating vs. win-loss record" team. The Aggies are 11th in FPI but project to win 7.4 games -- and, not surprisingly, the season win total is 7.5. Texas A&M faces the top four teams in the country according to FPI, with three coming on the road. So one could argue 8-4 is the Aggies' ceiling this year. And that's not even taking into consideration that A&M is 3-7 vs. the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left College Station. So you really can't assume they will beat both Ole Miss and Miss State. Eight wins are possible, but it's going to be tough.
[h=2]USC Trojans (7)[/h]USC's win total is seven. The Trojans could be an underdog in four or five games this year, and that's not a good thing given that Clay Helton's Trojans have pulled one upset in his tenure -- at Washington in 2016 -- and lost the other 12 games in which they were underdogs. Going 8-4 (or better) is certainly possible, but there's a lot of pressure on the Trojans this year.
[h=2]Virginia Tech Hokies (8)[/h]Virginia Tech has the easiest schedule in the Power Five and has seven home games in which it should be favored. The Hokies' season win total is eight, which on the surface looks low since they avoid Clemson, NC State and Syracuse. One thing to remember when trying to assume wins for Virginia Tech: Over the past five years, no team has lost more as a 14-point favorite than the Hokies, including last year's defensive meltdown as a 27.5-point favorite vs. Old Dominion.
[h=2]Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5.5)[/h]There's a chance Wake Forest could start 6-0 -- or, at worst, go 5-1. With the number sitting at 5.5, I'm on the over here, as our projections give the Demon Deacons a 2-in-3 chance to win at least six games. And with experience back at quarterback, running back and at key positions on defense, I have confidence that head coach Dave Clawson will get this team back to a bowl game.
[h=3]Quick-hitter[/h]
UCLA Bruins: UCLA's win total is 6, but FPI projects the Bruins to win 7.7 games. Interesting.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Caesars Sportsbook has rolled out some college football season win totals over the past couple of weeks. Here are some of my thoughts -- some more in-depth than others -- on select teams and what might or might not be worth a play.
(Note: Teams listed in alphabetical order.)
[h=2]Alabama Crimson Tide (O/U: 11.5 wins)[/h]I love the 11.5 on Alabama at +250 to the over. The Tide's best chance to lose is their final regular-season game (at Auburn), so you could play the over, and then if the Tide are 11-0 heading to Jordan Hare take a little Auburn on the money line as a bit of a hedge.
[h=2]Auburn Tigers (8)[/h]Auburn is a high-ceiling -- but low-floor -- team this year. The Tigers' total is 8, but they draw Florida and Georgia from the East and face Oregon, Florida, Texas A&M and LSU away from home. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Total "stay away" for me.
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[h=2]Boston College Eagles (6.5)[/h]ESPN's FPI gives Boston College just a 16 percent chance to win seven games, and that's what it will take to eclipse the season win total of 6.5. The Eagles lost a ton of production on defense and will have a less experienced offensive line blocking for running back AJ Dillon and protecting quarterback Anthony Brown. With four road games -- Clemson, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pitt -- among the final five, BC and those new starters better rack up the wins early; 6-6 sounds right here.
[h=2]LSU Tigers (9)[/h]At this time last year, there was talk that LSU could be a 7-5 or 6-6 type of team. But the Tigers blew out Miami in the season-opener and used that underdog slight as motivation to drive them to a 10-win year. Now big things are expected in Year 2 with Joe Burrow under center, and if you assume a loss to Alabama -- and why wouldn't you, being that LSU has scored 9.1 PPG in the past eight meetings -- then LSU can lose only one game the rest of the way to cash over 9. I see losable games at Texas, at Florida, at Mississippi State, vs. Auburn and vs. Texas A&M, so I have an easier time seeing 8-4 than 10-2. But, in my opinion, 9-3 is likely the landing spot.
[h=2]Michigan Wolverines (10.5)[/h]Doesn't it look like oddsmakers are baiting you to go under 10.5 wins here? Most fans feel Michigan is overrated. The Wolverines get both Michigan State and Ohio State in Ann Arbor -- where Jim Harbaugh is 0-4 vs. those two teams -- and another potential top-10 team in Notre Dame also visits the Big House. Michigan's 1-9 record against top-10 teams under Harbaugh is well-documented. There's also a trip to Penn State, and by that point, the Nittany Lions' young offensive skill might be grown up in what will be a raucous atmosphere. The under looks too easy, which means be careful here. Those buildings in Las Vegas are big and shiny for a reason.
[h=2]Missouri Tigers (8)[/h]Missouri seems to be the "schedule darling" this year, as the Tigers have winnable road games at Wyoming, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Arkansas, while they get West Virginia, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Florida and Tennessee in Columbia. Those all look all winnable, too. And quarterback Kelly Bryant transferred in. A win total of eight looks too good to be true. Though I wouldn't play the under, I also would think twice about being super bullish on the over.
[h=2]Nebraska Cornhuskers (8.5)[/h]Nebraska will be an immensely popular pick over 8.5, but I still need to see more from the defense. I'm not playing the under, but those who follow me know I am not a fan of being on the public side.
[h=2]North Carolina Tar Heels (5)[/h]Might North Carolina open 0-5? The Tar Heels start the year vs. South Carolina, Miami, Wake Forest, Appalachian State and Clemson. And they will do it with a very young quarterback. Getting to five wins -- or more than five -- might be tough in the first year of Mack Brown's second stint in Chapel Hill. Although, having worked with Mack the past few years, I hope I'm wrong!
[h=2]Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9)[/h]Last year, Notre Dame won five one-score games en route to a 12-0 regular season. Gone are Jerry Tillery, Te'Von Coney, Julian Love and Drue Tranquill from the defense. Big-play wide receiver Myles Boykin is no longer available to quarterback Ian Book. Caesars posted the Irish win total at nine, and I've seen 9.5s out there, too. Notre Dame should be a decent underdog at Michigan and Georgia. So for this purpose, let's say they drop those two games. Are they going to run the slate at Stanford, vs. a USC team that was in a tight game with them last year, vs. Virginia and Virginia Tech and at Duke?
And the way the schedule sets up, Virginia Tech, Duke, Navy and Boston College all are idle in November the week prior to facing the Irish -- and the Irish play each week from Oct. 26 on. Rest could mean a lot at that point of the season. Hitting 10-2 is going to be really tough to come by this year for Notre Dame. And that's what it takes to beat you.
[h=2]Ohio State Buckeyes (10)[/h]Caesars posted 10 as the win total for Ohio State, and, like Notre Dame, I've seen 9.5s out there too, which is how I would handle the Buckeyes this season. I have a hard time seeing them going 9-3. Is OSU going to lose at Nebraska, at Michigan and vs. either Michigan State, Penn State or Wisconsin at home? The Buckeyes still have more talent than anyone in the Big Ten, and I have a suspicion that head coach Ryan Day will see that OSU avoids the head-scratching loss that has tripped them up each of the past five years. A new message certainly can't hurt. Outside of being a home 'dog against Michigan when not many gave them a chance, last year OSU played its best football early in the year when Day was the interim coach.
[h=2]Penn State Nittany Lions (8.5)[/h]I don't know what to do with Penn State. The Lions have sophomores at all the skill spots, and the schedule should allow them to ease into things. When the schedule toughens up later in the year, this team could be scary on offense to go along with what should be a really good defense. There's a good chance the Lions get to nine wins this year -- the current total is 8.5 -- and if I can buy stock in the 2020 team, count me in.
[h=2]Purdue Boilermakers (7)[/h]FPI gives Purdue a 15 percent chance to win at least seven games and a 5 percent chance to win at least eight. So the numbers say 6-6 is a much better chance than exceeding seven wins, which is the current win total. Even last year with a monumental upset of Ohio State, the Boilermakers won six games, getting blown out by Minnesota and losing to Eastern Michigan at home. The program has been down, and you have to go back to 2007 to find the last time Purdue won seven games and 2006 to find the last time it won eight. Wide receiver Rondale Moore is a stud, but the offense will be almost entirely new around him.
The nonconference features no gimmes, with games at Nevada, vs. Vandy and vs. TCU. There are also road games at Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin. This could push on seven, but being that I don't see 8-4, the under is the play here.
[h=2]Texas A&M Aggies (7.5)[/h]Texas A&M is going to be the ultimate "power rating vs. win-loss record" team. The Aggies are 11th in FPI but project to win 7.4 games -- and, not surprisingly, the season win total is 7.5. Texas A&M faces the top four teams in the country according to FPI, with three coming on the road. So one could argue 8-4 is the Aggies' ceiling this year. And that's not even taking into consideration that A&M is 3-7 vs. the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left College Station. So you really can't assume they will beat both Ole Miss and Miss State. Eight wins are possible, but it's going to be tough.
[h=2]USC Trojans (7)[/h]USC's win total is seven. The Trojans could be an underdog in four or five games this year, and that's not a good thing given that Clay Helton's Trojans have pulled one upset in his tenure -- at Washington in 2016 -- and lost the other 12 games in which they were underdogs. Going 8-4 (or better) is certainly possible, but there's a lot of pressure on the Trojans this year.
[h=2]Virginia Tech Hokies (8)[/h]Virginia Tech has the easiest schedule in the Power Five and has seven home games in which it should be favored. The Hokies' season win total is eight, which on the surface looks low since they avoid Clemson, NC State and Syracuse. One thing to remember when trying to assume wins for Virginia Tech: Over the past five years, no team has lost more as a 14-point favorite than the Hokies, including last year's defensive meltdown as a 27.5-point favorite vs. Old Dominion.
[h=3]Quick-hitter[/h]
UCLA Bruins: UCLA's win total is 6, but FPI projects the Bruins to win 7.7 games. Interesting.
