Revisiting the Monty Hall conundrum, with a twist...

Doug · Jul 15, 2019

Monty is now playing Russian Roulette, for some unknown reason.

The weapon in play is just a standard old handgun, a six shooter, no tricks about the chamber with the lone bullet being heavier and more likely to land low after spinning the cylinder, or crap like that

Your basic 1 in 6, 17% type of shot deal

Doug · Jul 15, 2019

So Marty goes first , survives ,Monty is up next he has to shoot, should he just shoot or spin the cylinder and then shoot ?

A bit of thought is required to see why one option is better than the other, with the assumption you're trying to avoid a bullet in your skull and would still like to be alive tommorow.

Doug · Jul 15, 2019

If you can't wrap your mind around the classic MH , 3 door problem or this variation, do not make another bet until you get it

tatehill2000 · Jul 16, 2019

Doug said:
Monty is now playing Russian Roulette, for some unknown reason.

The weapon in play is just a standard old handgun, a six shooter, no tricks about the chamber with the lone bullet being heavier and more likely to land low after spinning the cylinder, or crap like that

Your basic 1 in 6, 17% type of shot deal

Sadly in the Scenerio youve set up, youve already answered the math, its roulette, every spin is 17%

in the monty hall scenerio, you REMOVE an option, thats were the math goes in our favor,,,

the answer is SPIN and shoot, as you will always get 17% odds,,

lol,, NOW,, if you give me the gun and tell me I can shoot Epstein with this same gun? I will choose OPPOSITE,, and take the gun with the 1 "clicked" chamber,,,
cheers,,

TomGshotput · Jul 16, 2019

If he pulls the trigger without spinning, it's a one-in-five chance of taking a bullet in the head.

If he spins and then shoots, it's a one-in-six chance.

Doug · Jul 16, 2019

It is possible that I may have erred in wording it, it does get to be technical and tedious with these discussions

Tom and Tate already disagree

It's the middle of July, a bit of a thoughtful discussion on logic and probability is relevant to folks that try to get an edge on beating the odds

Consider it to a sort of mental floss until the NFL starts

Doug · Jul 16, 2019

I never claimed to be any kind of genius

My logic says six shots, assume they are fatal and you have to play and would prefer not to die today

One is fired, one if five chance or 20% , chance the next pull of the trigger is lethal, spin the cylinder of the revolver if given that option, now odds of dying are in 1 in 6, better than 1 in 5, right ?

Maybe I'm missing something ?

I don't think I am

I am a big enough man to admit, hey I was wrong when need be.

I spin that cylinder