Tuesday Service Play Thread July 30, 2019

mcmister · Jul 30, 2019

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mcmister · Jul 30, 2019

Below is the Champ MLB Betting System series picks for today.

Cardinals {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series.

Note that if the {A** bet does not win, you should automatically move onto the {B** bet the next day on the same team, and again with the potential {C** bet.

mcmister · Jul 30, 2019

[h=2]BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 30)[/h]The model has 4 sides and 3 total. There is 0 games with a side and total in the same game.
902 PHI -120
905 PIT +123
908 CHC/STL u9 -115
912 HOU/CLE u8.5 +100
913 TBR +134
920 LAA -240
926 MIN/MIA u8.5 -115

[h=5][/h]

bmd1803 · Jul 30, 2019

+EV: MLB 4u: 905 Pittsburgh Pirates +130 (J Musgrove | T Roark) (Tuesday, July 30th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 915 Seattle Mariners +119 (M Leake | A Jurado) (Tuesday, July 30th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 926 Miami Marlins +141 (J Odorizzi | Z Gallen) (Tuesday, July 30th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 928 Chicago White Sox +139 (N Syndergaard | R Lopez) (Tuesday, July 30th)

bmd1803 · Jul 30, 2019

Spartan

3* la angles -1.5(-135)

bmd1803 · Jul 30, 2019

STEPHEN NOVER

3*TOM

New York Yankees / Arizona over 11.5

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

DAVE ESSLER

3*TOY
Boston / Tampa bay over 9

pjoyce5893 · Jul 30, 2019

CleInsiderSports (1-0-1 yest)

MLB
Brewers ML (+110)
Giants/Phillies OVER 10.5

pjoyce5893 · Jul 30, 2019

Vince Akins (2-2 yest)

MLB Trend Plays
Yankees ML (-220)
Angels ML (-260)
Mariners/Rangers OVER 11.5
Red Sox ML (-135)

pjoyce5893 · Jul 30, 2019

Consensus (2-1 yest)

MLB
7u Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8.5
5u Giants/Phillies OVER 10.5

mike0007 · Jul 30, 2019

Stephen Oh

CINCINNATI -131
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 7/30 | 4:10 PM PDT

The Pirates have been successful against the Reds overall this season, but Pittsburgh hasn't been successful against anyone lately. My computer simulations don't see that changing Tuesday. Tanner Roark and the Reds get the better of Joe Musgrove and the Pirates in a solid 62 percnet of my simulations. At that number, the money line should be at -163. Cincy offers strong value here.
128-86 IN LAST 214 MLB ML PICKS | +3766
18-5 IN LAST 23 PIT ML PICKS | +1306
17-13 IN LAST 30 CIN ML PICKS | +328

BOSTON -136
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 7/30 | 4:10 PM PDT
Charlie Morton is 12-3 on the season with a 2.60 ERA. He sports a solid 3.86 ERA against the Red Sox. But he's up against former Rays standout David Price at Fenway Park, where the Boston starter is 28-9 all-time with a 3.06 ERA. No offense is on a roll more than Boston, which is batting .301 on the month while averaging 7.1 runs per game. The Sox win 61 percent of my simulations, so there's value in the hottest team in baseball.
128-86 IN LAST 214 MLB ML PICKS | +3766
29-14 IN LAST 43 TB ML PICKS | +1824
12-7 IN LAST 19 BOS ML PICKS | +255

Twuan_Almighty · Jul 30, 2019

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
MIA F5 +.5 -120 3u

MLB Season: 75-76-7 50% -25.95 units

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

MIT simulator

Angels -1.5
Cubs
Yankees -1.5

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

Hakeem Profit

5% BIG PROFIT TOTAL

Mariners-Rangers over 11.5

The Mariners are the best over team in the league & they face a Texas team that has went over their Last 5 home games. Looking at both starting pitchers we have home/road dichotomies. Leake has a 3.01 era at home but he’ll be on the road in this one where his ERA is over 2 points higher at 5.60. Jurado on the other side has a 4.34 road ERA but 5.45 at home & in his Last 24 IP he’s given up 18 ER. Both teams are 1st & 3rd F5 Overs but at the same time they have 2 of the bottom 5 bullpen in the AL so we’ll include them. Both teams are ranked 28th/25th ERA, 14th/13th OPS, & 7th/14th WRC+ vs RHP. We will be on the over.

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

Dwayne Bryant

5% Max Bet

Cubs-Cards under 8.5

5% play at 8.5 or higher
4% play at 8
3% play at 7.5
No play below 7.5

Yu Darvish is in excellent current form. Darvish owns a 0.67 WHIP and 21/2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts. Active Cardinals hitters own a combined .133 average and .544 OPS against him.

Adam Wainwright has been Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to home/road results this season. On the road, AW owns a 1.61 WHIP, .299 BAA, and 17.4% HR/FB rate. But here at home, he owns a 1.20 WHIP, .235 BAA, and 12.8% HR/FB rate. His K/BB ratio also improves from 1.87 on the road to 3.06 at home. Active Cubs hitters own a combined .220 BA and .296 wOBA against Wainwright.

I also like that Wainwright is coming off back-to-back poor outings. Those two were on the road where we know he has not been very good. That makes tonight a great bounce-back spot at home. Wainwright has hosted the Cubs three times since 2017, allowing just 2 runs in 20 innings of work, including no runs over 15 innings in his last two home starts against the Cubs.

St. Louis' pen owns the league's #8 xFIP. The Cubs pen ranks a mediocre 16th. The Cards pen also ranks well in K/BB and WHIP.

There are MANY trends supporting the Under here. Here are just a few (the Under is):

6-1 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.
4-0-1 in Wainwright's last five home starts versus the Cubs.
21-8-3 in Wainwright's last 32 home starts against teams with a winning record.
20-6 in St. Louis' last 26 home games.
6-1-1 in St. Louis' last eight games following an off day.
6-1 in Darvish's last seven road starts versus teams with a winning record.
9-2-1 in the Cubs' last 12 games overall.
8-0 in the Cubs' last eight games following an off day.
12-3-2 in the Cubs' last 17 series-opening games.
8-1 in the Cardinals' last nine series-opening home games.

PLAY UNDER.

bigboy19 · Jul 30, 2019

Green Bay Monster Sports 20-8 on top rated plays - Yankees RL -120 Marlins +1.5 RL -130

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

MLB (Bob Balfe)
7:05 PM EST
Rotation #903-904
Braves -110 over Nationals
Teheran/Fedde
Erick Fedde has decent numbers this year for the Nationals, but he had limited work and he tends to walk batters which is not good for the pitch count and obviously allowing extra runners means more runs. The Nationals bullpen is a mess so the quicker they tap into it the better the Braves chances are of putting up more offense. Julio Teheran is the more established pitcher and should get the victory tonight. Take the Braves

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

JR ODONNELL

3* Oakland -121

3* Detroit +1.5(+121)

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

Goodfella
3* Houston -130

sailfish · Jul 30, 2019

bmd1803 said:
+EV: MLB 4u: 905 Pittsburgh Pirates +130 (J Musgrove | T Roark) (Tuesday, July 30th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 915 Seattle Mariners +119 (M Leake | A Jurado) (Tuesday, July 30th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 926 Miami Marlins +141 (J Odorizzi | Z Gallen) (Tuesday, July 30th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 928 Chicago White Sox +139 (N Syndergaard | R Lopez) (Tuesday, July 30th)