Monday Service Play Thread 8/05/2019

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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from poster yankees5560

Fezzik early picks

nfl preseason —I will post

Week1
3* GB +3.5/4
2* Jax +4

3* Under 8.5 Houston
Over 7.5 Carolina
Under 6 Oak

Of course lines have changed ,,
 

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+EV: MLB 4u: 925 Oakland Athletics +139 (C Bassitt | K Hendricks) (Monday, August 5th)
 

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Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 8/5

100* Braves -110
100* Cardinals +135
100* Over 11.5 Redsox/Royals
 

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Let's go forward to Monday's picks.

====================
Below are the Champ MLB Betting System picks for today.


Dodgers {A** Bet on the Money Line - This is a confirmed official betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after.

Royals {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet.

Orioles {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is only an unofficial betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet.
====================


 

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[FONT=&quot][h=2]BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 5)[/h]The model has 4 sides and 2 total. There is 0 games with a side and total in the same game.
902 .5* MIA/NYM u7.5 -120
903 .5* MIL -119
907 .5* PHI +102
912 .5* STL/LAD u9 +100
918 .5* BOS -200
921 .33* TEX +173




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Miller locks

7:05 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Baltimore orioles

pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-159)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
kansas city royals vs. Boston red sox

pick: Over 11.5 (+102)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
laa angels vs. Cincinnati reds

pick: Cincinnati reds (-201)

risk: 11 units
 

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Miami has flipped their starting pitchers for today's Doubleheader. R Dugger will start in Game #1 and S Alcantara will start in Game #2.
 

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Stephen Oh

PITTSBURGH +124

MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 8/05 | 7:05 PM EDT
9:41 AM
Jordan Lyles had a nice debut for the Brewers last week in a win over the A's. My projections call for a Brewers win in Monday's start as well, but it only occurred in 51 percent of my simulations. Milwaukee is in a 2-9 funk in road games against a right-handed starter and are coming off a humbling sweep at the Cubs. The Pirates are struggling, too, but they've been far better at home, especially on offense. The value is in the home team.

135-92 IN LAST 227 MLB ML PICKS | +3868
19-6 IN LAST 25 PIT ML PICKS | +1275

11-8 IN LAST 19 MIL ML PICKS | +266


TEXAS +168

TEXAS @ CLEVELAND | 8/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:24 PM
Mike Minor has a 6.65 ERA over his last four starts but he’s dominated the Indians over his career. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was impressive in his debut, but this one is about value. Texas wins only 44 percent of my computer simulations, but that success rate suggests a money line of +127 and we’re getting way over that now. Take the calculated risk with the Rangers.

135-92 IN LAST 227 MLB ML PICKS | +3868
32-19 IN LAST 51 CLE ML PICKS | +1669

20-13 IN LAST 33 TEX ML PICKS | +1046


BOSTON -218

KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 8/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:20 PM
The Royals are stuck in a funk, they’re winless against the Red Sox this season and haven’t won a start from acquired pitcher Mike Montgomery. The Red Sox have been having pitching issues but the offense has been firing, and they’re 27-14 against teams with a .460 or under win percentage. Boston wins a solid 74 percent of my simulations for Monday, so even at this high price the value is on the Red Sox.

135-92 IN LAST 227 MLB ML PICKS | +3868
34-17 IN LAST 51 KC ML PICKS | +2016

13-8 IN LAST 21 BOS ML PICKS | +230
 

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DR CHUCK

Game: (903) Milwaukee Brewers at (904) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 5 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -125

View Analysis

Lyles v. Agrazal
Jordan Lyles is baaaaack! It Ain't July no more and he escaped the toxic time he spent with the Pirates in the steel city. He got a win in July in his first start back for the Brew Crew (the first time he pitched and his team won ever in his career in July!). Now he gets to face his old team who traded him a couple weeks ago, off a game they played at home allowing the Mets to score close to 42 runs and losing yet another rubber match and series! No team is reeling more than Pittsburgh, they are still in some suspensions, and throw Agrazal on the mound to face the daunting Brewers lineup!
Agrazal is the prototype for the xFIP fade system (if he had more than 7 starts and 37 innings), but despite the small.sample size he has now boasted an ERA of 3.65 and xFIP of 6.20. I like to fade the 2 point difference but rarely get a shot at the almost 3 spot. He also allows the most contact of any starter in the MLB with as many starts. The Brewers had a rough go of it in Wrigley over the weekend and are going to be excited break loose in Pittsburgh after the frustration as well as seeing what can be done to these Pirates...who had a better pitcher going against Thor on Sunday!
Lyles revenge and return is all just a bonus play on this AMAZING price...that also may not last!
 

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