Tuesday Service Play Thread 8/06/2019

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zen_gamble

+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Kansas City Royals +185 (J Junis | A Cashner) (Tuesday, August 6th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 971 Texas Rangers +182 (A Jurado | Z Plesac) (Tuesday, August 6th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 956 Arizona Diamondbacks -113 (J Arrieta | M Leake) (Tuesday, August 6th)

BEN BURNS

3* Minnesota -145

Spartan

3* la dodgers -1.5(+105)

STEPHEN NOVER

3* Miami +198

Stephen Oh

CHI. WHITE SOX -116

CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:46 PM
The Tigers actually opened as favorites here but that changed in a hurry. As badly as the White Sox have looked at times, Detroit is arguably the worst team in the majors, and it doesn't help that Drew VerHagen puts his 11.66 ERA on the mound for the start. Chicago wins nearly two-thirds of my simulations here, at a near even-money price. Grab it before it goes any higher.

137-93 IN LAST 230 MLB ML PICKS | +4036
31-10 IN LAST 41 DET ML PICKS | +1942

23-14 IN LAST 37 CHW ML PICKS | +856


KANSAS CITY +176

KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:42 PM
There's no disputing the Red Sox are, on paper, the better team. But they're also playing as poorly as anyone right now, and with Andrew Cashner on the mound against Royals ace Jacob Junis, that's enough to push the value on this game strongly toward KC. The Royals win 46 percent of my simulations, making this massive money line too juicy to pass up.

137-93 IN LAST 230 MLB ML PICKS | +4036
35-17 IN LAST 52 KC ML PICKS | +2116

14-8 IN LAST 22 BOS ML PICKS | +330

Zack Cimini

L.A. DODGERS -193

ST. LOUIS @ L.A. DODGERS | 8/06 | 10:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:24 PM
The Dodgers have been winning at a rate that keeps their price as a premium on a nightly basis. That lifts even higher when Clayton Kershaw is on the mound. Tuesday Kershaw will aim for his 11th win on the year against a Cardinals team that’s lost six of eight. Look for the Cardinals to continue to take a step backwards as the Dodgers are piling up runs at the plate. Grab L.A.

22-10-2 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +1323
9-7 IN LAST 16 LAD ML PICKS | +169


OVER 8.5 COLORADO @ HOUSTON | 8/06 | 8:10 PM EDT

YESTERDAY 11:23 PM
The debut of Zack Greinke as a Houston Astros pitcher comes against a familiar opponent in the Colorado Rockies. As a Diamondback, Greinke had already pitched four times against the Rockies including a July 5 seven-inning shutout effort. Opposite, Rockies pitcher German Marquez has regained his form with three-straight quality starts. Yet this total is a bit too low for as potent as both teams are at the plate. Grab the over (-101).

22-10-2 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +1323
9-3 IN LAST 12 COL O/U PICKS | +576


L.A. ANGELS +129

L.A. ANGELS @ CINCINNATI | 8/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:21 PM
Losers of five straight, the L.A. Angels will need offense to get of their rut. Poor pitching has resulted in the opponent averaging over seven runs a game during the Angels current losing streak. Run support has also been lacking but look for that to change Tuesday. Reds pitcher Anthony DesClafani has struggled to pitch beyond five innings as of late. Grab the value on the Angels ending their losing streak.

22-10-2 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +1323
20-5 IN LAST 25 LAA ML PICKS | +1679

Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 8/6

100* Dbacks -125
100* Tigers -110 Gm 1
100* Over 8 Mets/Marlins

JR ODONNELL

3*TOY
Minnesota / Atlanta over 10.5

WIZARD OF ODDS
8.6.19 MLB PLAYS


White Sox ML -115 (7pm game)

The Tigers actually opened as favorites here but that changed in a hurry. As badly as the White Sox have looked at times, Detroit is arguably the worst team in the majors,

Drew VerHagen puts his 11.66 ERA on the mound for the start. Chicago wins nearly 2/3 of simulations

Left-hander Hector Santiago (1-0, 6.75 ERA) will be recalled from *Triple-A Charlotte and start the nightcap for Chicagothirds of my simulations here,

In seven starts at Charlotte since the White Sox re-signed him, Santiago had a 1-4 record and 5.84 ERA. He's 5-6 with a 3.24 ERA in 27 career outings, including 13 starts, against Detroit.


Twins ML (-155) Twins F5 RL (-115)Twins -1.5 (+110)

Jose Berrios is 10-5 with a 2.80 ERA this season and 5-2 with a 2.10 ERA at home.

Mike Foltynewicz is being recalled to make this start, he is 2-5 with a 6.37 ERA this season

The Twins are 14-8 when Berrios starts, lay the home favorite.


Brewers F5 -0.5 (-115) Brewers ML -145

Anderson hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his last eight starts

Brewers have had the Pirates' number this season, winning 10 of 14 meetings

Anderson is 8-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 17 career starts against the Pirates, including 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in three starts this season.

Brault has been on the injured list since July 6 because of a left shoulder strain but is expected to be activated for the start after a rehab start Thursday at Triple-A Indianapolis that he called "not great

In that rehab start, Brault allowed two runs and three hits in four-plus innings, with five walks and a wild pitch.


Angels ML +130 Angles +1.5 (-145)

Anthony DesClafani has struggled to pitch beyond five innings as of late

Angels receiving almost 60% of total dollars wagered on only 40% of total tickets giving them at +18% money to ticket differential implying that professional money is on them.


Royals ML +176 Royals +1.5

Steam move on Royals price jumps from +176 at open to +165 currently

Andrew Cashner on the mound against Royals ace Jacob Junis, that's enough to push the value on this game strongly toward KC. The Royals win 46 percent of my simulations, making this massive money line too juicy to pass up.

Cashner (10-6, 4.44 ERA) will be the next starter to look to break from a funk, as he's lost three of his first four appearances with Boston.

In his last start, the right-handed Cashner was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. Lifetime against the Royals, he's 0-3 with a 3.29 ERA in five starts.

Mookie Betts, who exited with a left shin contusion in the eighth inning after fouling a ball off his leg in the seventh.

J.D. Martinez was scratched from the starting lineup ahead of the game with back tightness. (yesterday waiting to hear if hell play today)

Wizard of odds

Plays in strength (top to bottom)

Twins ML -155
Twins F5in RL -.5 -115
twins RL -1.5 +110
Brewers ML -145
Angels RL +1.5 -145
Royals RL +1.5

White Sox ML -115
Brewers f5 -.5 -115
Angels ML +130
Royals ML +176

Accu Picks

MLB
3* #966 Detroit -115 (VerHagen)
(Game #2 of doubleheader)

FEZZIK - early releases for Thurs FB

1* Mia -150
1* Was +1.5
1* Den +2

Bryan Leonard

Game: (955) Philadelphia Phillies at (956) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Aug 6 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -122

View Analysis

956 Philadelphia at Arizona
Arrieta & Leake
Heading into last night the Diamondbacks were 12-4 the past three seasons in this series. Mike Leake heads to the NL after the trade from Seattle. In his last five starts against the Phillies he owns a 60 average game score. In his last seven starts overall he has an excellent 31 to 3 SO to BB ratio.
Jake Arrieta has an average game score of 43 his last seven starts. And he has done so allowing just four home runs in those games. Plenty of value on the host here.
PLAY ARIZONA

Fezzik early releases


Preseason 1

Wash +1.5
Den +2
Miami -150


CFL/Friday
3* Under 52.5 mont/sask


Week 1


3* sf +1.5
3* gb +4
2* Jax +4.5
2* Balt -3.5


3* un Hou 8.5 -120
2* Ov SF 8 -140
2* over 7.5 car -130
2* un 6 oak -100


1* Philly eagles make playoffs -210.. likes over 9.5
1* Chicago no to make playoffs -100 likes under 9/9.5

Interesting that some of this is just a copy and paste from Stephen Oh’s of Sportsline comments noted earlier especially the White Sox/Tigers and the Royals/Red Sox. Nearly word for word with some embellishments. How about “making this money line too juicy to pass up.” There are
other direct quotes.
Come on man!

Dave Essler

3* GOW

San Francisco +105