[h=1]Projecting the final SEC standings[/h]
Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Alabama and Georgia both have national title aspirations, but there are plenty of talented teams in the SEC.
Here is how I project each team in the conference will finish.
[h=2]West[/h][h=2]1. Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]The Tide rolled through the regular season last year, beating every team by 20 or more points despite taking their foot off the gas in most fourth quarters. They narrowly got past Georgia in the SEC title game, and shockingly lost 44-16 to Clemson in the National Championship. That loss should have the Tide playing with a chip on their shoulder, and they look stronger on both offense and defense. They have 12 starters back, including quarterback Tua Tagovailoa(3,966 pass yards, 43-6 TD-interception ratio in 2018), who will be a contender for the Heisman again this season.
[h=2]2. LSU Tigers[/h]
Last year LSU was No. 129 on my experience chart, took on a rugged schedule (10th-toughest in FBS) and I put Ed Orgeron on my hot seat list. Orgeron promptly got off that list by upsetting Miami, Auburn and Georgia in the Tigers' first seven games. LSU surprised me by finishing the season 10-3 and No. 6 in the rankings. Now we will see if the Tigers can handle some lofty expectations as they jump to No. 19 on my experience chart with 16 starters returning, including quarterback Joe Burrow, who has a year of experience under his belt. The defense loses top tackler Devin White (fifth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft) but returns seven of the top nine tacklers from a season ago.
[h=2]3. Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Jimbo Fisher did a great job in Year 1 and, despite a rugged schedule, A&M still finished ranked (No. 16) for the first time since 2013. The Aggies drop from No. 22 on my experience chart to No. 97, as they lose their top rusher and receiver on offense as well as their top six tacklers. Texas A&M has to play Clemson, Georgia and LSU on the road plus face Alabama and what is the fourth-toughest schedule in FBS, but the Aggies did better than expected last year by finishing tied for second in the West. They also get seven starters back on offense.
[h=2]4. Auburn Tigers[/h]The Tigers underachieved last year, opening up ranked No. 9 in the AP poll but finishing the season unranked. They have what may be the nation's top defensive line as well as a solid offensive line that gets back all five starters from a year ago. Head coach Gus Malzahn now has a mobile quarterback in Joey Gatewood, and that is when his offenses are most effective. Auburn has to play Oregon, Texas A&M, Florida and LSU all away from home and hosts both Alabama and Georgia; the Tigers face the second-toughest schedule in the country for 2019.
[h=2]5. Mississippi State Bulldogs[/h]Last year Mississippi State was No. 5 on my experience chart with a loaded defense that allowed just 13.2 points (second-best in the FBS). This year they lose four players to the NFL draft (three first-round picks) off that defense and drop to No. 84 on my experience chart. The Bulldogs will be more balanced on offense with seven starters back, including their top running back and top three receivers from 2018. Mississippi State also adds grad transfer quarterback Tommy Stevens from Penn State. The Bulldogs should jump out to a 3-0 start and will be a confident team heading into SEC play. Overall, I like the direction of this team under second-year head coach Joe Moorhead.
[h=2]6. Ole Miss Rebels[/h]The bowl ban is gone, and Ole Miss will be back to the full allotment of 85 scholarships this fall. The Rebels have just three starters back on offense as they lose their top three receivers as well as their quarterback and are No. 106 on my experience chart. Ole Miss returns 10 starters on defense and 13 of the top 15 tacklers from 2018. I like the hires of Rich Rodriguez as offensive coordinator and Mike MacIntyre as defensive coordinator, and Matt Luke is an underrated head coach. Ole Miss does play in the rugged SEC West but figures to be favored in five games this year, meaning they will be one upset win away from making a bowl game.
[h=2]7. Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]The Hogs were better than their 2-10 record last year as they only lost to Texas A&M and LSU by seven points each and blew a 27-10 second-quarter lead against Ole Miss after injuries to their quarterback and running back. Arkansas will be much improved in Year 2 under Chad Morris. The Hogs haven't won an SEC home game the last two years, only have three this year and are No. 120 on my experience chart (last in SEC). With 12 starters back, Arkansas will show some improvement and at least double last year's win total.
[h=2]East[/h][h=2]
[/h][h=2]1. Georgia Bulldogs[/h][h=2]The Bulldogs had three disappointing games last year in my mind, as I thought they were outplayed by Missouri (26-18 first-down edge for the Tigers), they were whipped by LSU 36-16 and then lost to Texas 28-21 in the Sugar Bowl. They played their "A" game against Alabama and led the SEC title game 28-14 before the Tide came back to win 35-28. The Dawgs have no weakness with every unit in my top 25, a veteran quarterback in Jake Fromm (2,761 yards, 30-6 TD-interception ratio) and an offensive line with four starters returning. Their toughest games away from home are against Florida and Auburn. I will call for a third straight trip to the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff.
[/h][h=2]2. Florida Gators[/h][h=2]Last season the Gators were my No. 1 most improved team in the country and did not disappoint me, going from 4-8 to 10-3 and finishing No. 7 in the AP Poll. Quarterback Feleipe Franks (2,457 yards, 24-6 TD-interception ratio in 2018) is in the second year of Dan Mullen's offensive scheme; however, the offensive line is the biggest offensive question for the Gators as they return just one starter. As for the defense, they return eight starters from a unit that allowed 343 yards and 20 points per game a season ago. Florida will be in the preseason top 10 this year, so I can't pick them for my surprise team list, but they are a legitimate SEC East contender, which makes them a playoff contender.
[/h][h=2]3. Missouri Tigers[/h][h=2]This is a schedule pick. Missouri has 13 returning starters and transfer QB Kelly Bryant is a proven winner (16-2 as the starter at Clemson) and a legitimate rushing threat as well (795 rush yards in 2017-18). Most of my power ratings have the Tigers fourth- or fifth-best in the East, but they draw Ole Miss and Arkansas out of the West, and their conference foes were a combined 27-37 in SEC play last year. Head coach Barry Odom is 10-12 in SEC play but could be favored in six SEC games this season. The Tigers are currently on a one-year bowl ban, but are in the process of appealing that ban -- if it does get overturned, I expect them to be in a bowl for a third straight season.
[/h][h=2]T-4. South Carolina Gamecocks[/h][h=2]Last year South Carolina looked like a possible contender in the SEC East, but they lost 41-17 hosting Georgia in Week 2, suffered a myriad of injuries on defense and ended up fourth in the East. This year they have quarterback Jake Bentley (3,171 yards, 27-14 TD-interception ratio in 2018) and 14 returning starters overall. The defense will benefit from getting some key players back from injury, and overall has seven starters returning. South Carolina also plays the nation's toughest schedule, as the Gamecocks draw both Alabama and Texas A&M out of the West and take on in-state rival Clemson in the final week of the regular season.
[/h][h=2]T-4. Tennessee Volunteers[/h][h=2]The Volunteers just missed out on making my most improved list a season ago and also missed out on a bowl even with an impressive road upset of a ranked Auburn team on their resume. This season the Vols are the second-most experienced team in the SEC, as they come in at No. 17 on my experience chart, and are in the second year of Jeremy Pruitt's schemes. Tennessee gets back 16 starters for 2019, including 10 on the offensive side of the ball. They bring back their top two rushers, top seven receivers and four offensive line starters. Tennessee has an upgraded roster that I believe will get to a bowl game this season.
[/h][h=2]6. Kentucky Wildcats[/h]Mark Stoops is the only coach in the last five years who has not had his record decline in any year. Kentucky may have reached the summit with 10 wins last year for the first time since 1977. Kentucky loses running back Benny Snell (1,449 rush yards, fourth-round NFL draft pick) and first-, second- and third-round draft picks on defense. Though they were No. 99 on my experience chart last year, the Wildcats drop to No. 105 this year, as just 10 starters return. I can still see Kentucky favored in as many as seven games this season and they have pulled 10 upsets the last three years.
[h=2]7. Vanderbilt Commodores[/h]Derek Mason is only 9-31 in SEC play in his five years at Vanderbilt, but despite me picking them to finish last each year, Vanderbilt has escaped the basement four of five years and has been to bowl games in two of the past three years. The Commodores lose their long-time quarterback Kyle Shurmur but return running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb and tight end Jared Pinkney. The defense has just five starters back this season but had only five starters back on defense last year. Vanderbilt is No. 107 on my experience chart and will once again flirt with bowl eligibility.
Phil Steele
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Alabama and Georgia both have national title aspirations, but there are plenty of talented teams in the SEC.
Here is how I project each team in the conference will finish.
[h=2]2. LSU Tigers[/h]
Last year LSU was No. 129 on my experience chart, took on a rugged schedule (10th-toughest in FBS) and I put Ed Orgeron on my hot seat list. Orgeron promptly got off that list by upsetting Miami, Auburn and Georgia in the Tigers' first seven games. LSU surprised me by finishing the season 10-3 and No. 6 in the rankings. Now we will see if the Tigers can handle some lofty expectations as they jump to No. 19 on my experience chart with 16 starters returning, including quarterback Joe Burrow, who has a year of experience under his belt. The defense loses top tackler Devin White (fifth overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft) but returns seven of the top nine tacklers from a season ago.
[h=2]3. Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Jimbo Fisher did a great job in Year 1 and, despite a rugged schedule, A&M still finished ranked (No. 16) for the first time since 2013. The Aggies drop from No. 22 on my experience chart to No. 97, as they lose their top rusher and receiver on offense as well as their top six tacklers. Texas A&M has to play Clemson, Georgia and LSU on the road plus face Alabama and what is the fourth-toughest schedule in FBS, but the Aggies did better than expected last year by finishing tied for second in the West. They also get seven starters back on offense.
[h=2]4. Auburn Tigers[/h]The Tigers underachieved last year, opening up ranked No. 9 in the AP poll but finishing the season unranked. They have what may be the nation's top defensive line as well as a solid offensive line that gets back all five starters from a year ago. Head coach Gus Malzahn now has a mobile quarterback in Joey Gatewood, and that is when his offenses are most effective. Auburn has to play Oregon, Texas A&M, Florida and LSU all away from home and hosts both Alabama and Georgia; the Tigers face the second-toughest schedule in the country for 2019.
[h=2]5. Mississippi State Bulldogs[/h]Last year Mississippi State was No. 5 on my experience chart with a loaded defense that allowed just 13.2 points (second-best in the FBS). This year they lose four players to the NFL draft (three first-round picks) off that defense and drop to No. 84 on my experience chart. The Bulldogs will be more balanced on offense with seven starters back, including their top running back and top three receivers from 2018. Mississippi State also adds grad transfer quarterback Tommy Stevens from Penn State. The Bulldogs should jump out to a 3-0 start and will be a confident team heading into SEC play. Overall, I like the direction of this team under second-year head coach Joe Moorhead.
[h=2]6. Ole Miss Rebels[/h]The bowl ban is gone, and Ole Miss will be back to the full allotment of 85 scholarships this fall. The Rebels have just three starters back on offense as they lose their top three receivers as well as their quarterback and are No. 106 on my experience chart. Ole Miss returns 10 starters on defense and 13 of the top 15 tacklers from 2018. I like the hires of Rich Rodriguez as offensive coordinator and Mike MacIntyre as defensive coordinator, and Matt Luke is an underrated head coach. Ole Miss does play in the rugged SEC West but figures to be favored in five games this year, meaning they will be one upset win away from making a bowl game.
[h=2]7. Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]The Hogs were better than their 2-10 record last year as they only lost to Texas A&M and LSU by seven points each and blew a 27-10 second-quarter lead against Ole Miss after injuries to their quarterback and running back. Arkansas will be much improved in Year 2 under Chad Morris. The Hogs haven't won an SEC home game the last two years, only have three this year and are No. 120 on my experience chart (last in SEC). With 12 starters back, Arkansas will show some improvement and at least double last year's win total.
[h=2]East[/h][h=2]
[/h][h=2]3. Missouri Tigers[/h][h=2]This is a schedule pick. Missouri has 13 returning starters and transfer QB Kelly Bryant is a proven winner (16-2 as the starter at Clemson) and a legitimate rushing threat as well (795 rush yards in 2017-18). Most of my power ratings have the Tigers fourth- or fifth-best in the East, but they draw Ole Miss and Arkansas out of the West, and their conference foes were a combined 27-37 in SEC play last year. Head coach Barry Odom is 10-12 in SEC play but could be favored in six SEC games this season. The Tigers are currently on a one-year bowl ban, but are in the process of appealing that ban -- if it does get overturned, I expect them to be in a bowl for a third straight season.
[/h][h=2]T-4. South Carolina Gamecocks[/h][h=2]Last year South Carolina looked like a possible contender in the SEC East, but they lost 41-17 hosting Georgia in Week 2, suffered a myriad of injuries on defense and ended up fourth in the East. This year they have quarterback Jake Bentley (3,171 yards, 27-14 TD-interception ratio in 2018) and 14 returning starters overall. The defense will benefit from getting some key players back from injury, and overall has seven starters returning. South Carolina also plays the nation's toughest schedule, as the Gamecocks draw both Alabama and Texas A&M out of the West and take on in-state rival Clemson in the final week of the regular season.
[/h][h=2]T-4. Tennessee Volunteers[/h][h=2]The Volunteers just missed out on making my most improved list a season ago and also missed out on a bowl even with an impressive road upset of a ranked Auburn team on their resume. This season the Vols are the second-most experienced team in the SEC, as they come in at No. 17 on my experience chart, and are in the second year of Jeremy Pruitt's schemes. Tennessee gets back 16 starters for 2019, including 10 on the offensive side of the ball. They bring back their top two rushers, top seven receivers and four offensive line starters. Tennessee has an upgraded roster that I believe will get to a bowl game this season.
[/h][h=2]6. Kentucky Wildcats[/h]Mark Stoops is the only coach in the last five years who has not had his record decline in any year. Kentucky may have reached the summit with 10 wins last year for the first time since 1977. Kentucky loses running back Benny Snell (1,449 rush yards, fourth-round NFL draft pick) and first-, second- and third-round draft picks on defense. Though they were No. 99 on my experience chart last year, the Wildcats drop to No. 105 this year, as just 10 starters return. I can still see Kentucky favored in as many as seven games this season and they have pulled 10 upsets the last three years.
